Citoyens de la Terre Conférence de Paris pour une gouvernance écologique mondiale 2-3 février 2007 Faire de l’Eau un Enjeu Partagé: L’Adaptation Nécessaire de la Gestion de l’Eau au Changement Climatique Jamal Saghir Director Energy, Transport, Water Energy, Transport, Water The World Bank Paris, Feb 2, 2007

Outline The Context The Context Key Challenges and Key Signals Key Challenges and Key Signals Climate Change, Water and Economy in Developing Countries Climate Change, Water and Economy in Developing Countries Adaptation Strategies - What Needs to be Done Adaptation Strategies - What Needs to be Done

The context World Bank Group engagement in climate mitigation and adaptation World Bank Group engagement in climate mitigation and adaptation G8 Gleneagles Plan of Action (July 2006) G8 Gleneagles Plan of Action (July 2006) Development Committee requested the World Bank to prepare an investment framework for Clean Energy and Development (September 2006) Development Committee requested the World Bank to prepare an investment framework for Clean Energy and Development (September 2006) Three interconnected pillars: Three interconnected pillars: Increased access to energy Increased access to energy Mitigation Mitigation Adaptation Adaptation

Water has many dimensions… It affects every aspect of life and is affected by it Water flows through all the topics addressed in this conference

Rural Water for: Cities Irrigation

Energy Transport Water for:

Biodiversity Livelihood Water for:

Population Growth Source: UN Population Data

Climate stress and hydrologic variability Source: UNESCO, 1999

% change in runoff by 2050 Many of the major “food-bowls” of the world are projected to become significantly drier Many of the major “food-bowls” of the world are projected to become significantly drier Globally there will be more precipitation Globally there will be more precipitation Higher temperatures will tend to reduce run off Higher temperatures will tend to reduce run off A few important areas drier (Mediterranean, southern South America, northern Brazil, west and south Africa) A few important areas drier (Mediterranean, southern South America, northern Brazil, west and south Africa)

Some climate change issues Patterns of precipitation and runoff will change substantially Patterns of precipitation and runoff will change substantially Rain in fewer, heavier events leading to more floods and dry spells; less ground water recharge Rain in fewer, heavier events leading to more floods and dry spells; less ground water recharge Projections for increased number of rainy days (left) and amount of rain per wet day (Right) for period based on modeling (HadRM2) Fewer rainy days But heavier rain

Some consequences of climate change for water management Demand for more storage to buffer more variable supply Demand for more storage to buffer more variable supply Demand for more irrigation to protect crops against increasingly irregular rainfall Demand for more irrigation to protect crops against increasingly irregular rainfall Significant increase in water infrastructure Significant increase in water infrastructure All this will be set against increasing demand for water from population growth and development All this will be set against increasing demand for water from population growth and development

Europe: Changing flood frequency Lenher et al 2006 Climatic Change Over much of Europe “one in a hundred year floods” will occur every couple of decades Over much of Europe “one in a hundred year floods” will occur every couple of decades

Threats to coastal Water Supply systems Sea level rise  increased salt water intrusion Sea level rise  increased salt water intrusion Increased demand leading to depletion Increased demand leading to depletion Pressures on costs and tariffs Pressures on costs and tariffs

Mountain water systems

Reuters August 11, 2006 “ Indian floods kill 350, leave 4m homeless in 5 Indian states ”India

Africa: Persistent droughts Reuters, Feb. 20, 2006 “Approximately 11 million people are threatened by starvation in Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia and Tanzania… Rain is unlikely before April”

Mozambique: Impact of 2000 floods on the economy -23% +44%

Kenya: variability and growth

Ethiopia: Water and GDP growth projections: 38% decline in avg. GDP growth 38% decline in avg. GDP growth 25% increase in poverty 25% increase in poverty

Globally: Accelerated glacial and snow melt will change patterns in Water supply Areas dominated by snow & glacial melt

South America: Yanamarey Glacier, Peru

Water and climate change – what we see or could see… Most socio-economic sectors, ecological systems and human health will be adversely affected with developing countries being the most vulnerable Most socio-economic sectors, ecological systems and human health will be adversely affected with developing countries being the most vulnerable Agricultural productivity is projected to decrease in the tropics and sub-tropics. Melting glaciers cold initially increase flood risk and then strongly reduce water supplies, eventually could threaten around 1/6 of world’s population according to Stern’s report. Agricultural productivity is projected to decrease in the tropics and sub-tropics. Melting glaciers cold initially increase flood risk and then strongly reduce water supplies, eventually could threaten around 1/6 of world’s population according to Stern’s report. Declining crop yields, especially in Africa. But also developed countries in lower latitudes will be more vulnerable with water availability and crop yields in Southern Europe are expected to decline according to Stern report by 20% with a 2 C increase in global temperatures. Declining crop yields, especially in Africa. But also developed countries in lower latitudes will be more vulnerable with water availability and crop yields in Southern Europe are expected to decline according to Stern report by 20% with a 2 C increase in global temperatures. Rising sea levels will result in tens to hundreds of million of people each year with warming Rising sea levels will result in tens to hundreds of million of people each year with warming Water availability for services, energy, and environmental management is projected to decrease in many arid- and semi- arid regions Water availability for services, energy, and environmental management is projected to decrease in many arid- and semi- arid regions Loss of biodiversity, water pollution control, and watershed management efforts will be exacerbated Loss of biodiversity, water pollution control, and watershed management efforts will be exacerbated

Adaptation emerging strategies: what we see … Climate is variable and changing Climate is variable and changing Mitigation is beyond the scope of the water sector Mitigation is beyond the scope of the water sector Adaptation can be carried out within the water sector, but not alone Adaptation can be carried out within the water sector, but not alone Major change in the way we do business is required Major change in the way we do business is required

What needs to be done  Recognize that the 20th century water data is not adequate for 2011 to 2040 water services and water management development Re-consider water allocation priorities Re-consider water allocation priorities Demand for water in currently irrigated water will increaseDemand for water in currently irrigated water will increase Should cropping systems change? How it will adapt?Should cropping systems change? How it will adapt?  An integrated approach to planning, design, and management of water resources and water services will be required  Transfer existing technologies, new technologies and revise planning process of standards and systems

What needs to be done Develop typologies of developing country cases to better understand options and costs Develop typologies of developing country cases to better understand options and costs Establish “climate-proof” planning and screening mythologies, tools, and operating guides especially for water resources and water services management Establish “climate-proof” planning and screening mythologies, tools, and operating guides especially for water resources and water services management Increase resiliency of the irrigated agricultural to hydrologic and climate variability, including development of a new generation of drought and disease resistant seeds and breeds Increase resiliency of the irrigated agricultural to hydrologic and climate variability, including development of a new generation of drought and disease resistant seeds and breeds

Concluding remarks Challenges of climate change and hydrologic variability are real and must be addressed Challenges of climate change and hydrologic variability are real and must be addressed Impact on water services and water management is significant with serious implications on economies and poverty. Impact on water services and water management is significant with serious implications on economies and poverty. Adaptation to variability and climate change must become an integral part of water resources management and water services delivery Adaptation to variability and climate change must become an integral part of water resources management and water services delivery The World Bank is committed to address adaptation in the water sector and is ready to work with partners The World Bank is committed to address adaptation in the water sector and is ready to work with partners

Thank You