A Computational Simulation to Study the Factors Impacting a College Student Body’s Racial Diversity Stephen Davies UMW Computer Science

Diversity in college student bodies College enrollment rates for racial minorities disproportionately low across the country for many years (Ryu 2010) Attrition consistently higher for minorities than for white students (Zea et al. 1997) Proportion of withdrawals due to academic problems may be as low as 15% (Kao et al. 2003, Kalsner 1991, Suen 1983)

Alienation A strong contributor to attrition is the phenomenon of “alienation”: a feeling of exclusion or non-belonging (Burbach 1972) “...even if minority students show high levels of academic satisfaction, they may feel socially and culturally alienated.” (Loo 1986) “...when students perceived the environment as unwelcoming because of race, ethnicity, or religion, their desire to continue attending college diminished. Ethnic minority students were more likely to report experiencing disrespect.” (Zea et al. 1997)

Breaking down alienation Dean's taxonomy of alienation identifies three dimensions: (Dean 1962)  “meaninglessness” (lack of direction and purpose in life)  “powerlessness” (lack of control over one’s life)  “social estrangement” (or feelings of loneliness) Suen's study determined that social estrangement was the key factor in attrition

“Clicking” with people Two dominant factors in forming friendships:  “propinquity” – opportunity for encounter (Mouw et al. 2006)  “homophily” – degree of perceived similarity (McPherson et al. 2001) hobbies values personal tastes backgrounds race, age, gender

How to mitigate social estrangement? Mentoring programs linking students to adults Minorities as peer mentors for (minority) freshmen “House plans” (“schools within a school”) Building relationships between families and schools Increasing frequency of informal faculty-freshmen contacts Paying attention to racial distribution in freshman activities (orientation groups, dorm assignments) (from Loo 1986, McDill et al. 1985, Natriello 1995)

Computational Social Science Can we predict the likely outcomes of such policies? Consider Thomas Schelling's groundbreaking study on residential segregation: (Schelling 1971)  Residents of a neighborhood modeled as “agents”  Their “happiness” depends on the characteristics of neighboring agents  They take actions (for instance, relocating) based on their happiness  Conclusion: If residents have even a small preference that their neighbors be of the same color as themselves, total segregation is likely to result.

A computational model of college diversity Students (“agents”) have attributes (hobbies, etc.) as well as a race, age, and GPA Propinquity influenced by:  Dorm roommates, hallmates  Freshman orientation groups  Courses  Random encounters Homophily influenced by:  attributes in common  race, age, GPA

A computational model of college diversity Students form “connections” with certain probabilities (based on propinquity/homophily) Use “number of connections” as an (inverse) proxy for social estrangement Can “experiment” with:  the relative degree to which “race matters” in perceived similarity  the number and nature of opportunities to encounter other students  students' changing attitudes about diversity throughout their college career

(low “race weight”)

(high “race weight”)

(Very) preliminary observations The degree to which “race matters” in perceived similarity has a large effect on minorities' social estrangement (duh) If “race matters” a lot, this reinforces segregation (duh) Early returns suggest that orientation group and dorm assignment policies have a very limited effect

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