MEDIA AND PUBLIC ENGAGEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT Tom Black © 2014 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

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Presentation transcript:

MEDIA AND PUBLIC ENGAGEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT Tom Black © 2014 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

© Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation | 2 Despite billions in aid, the poorest people around the world are not much better off than they were 20 years ago. PUBLIC ATTITUDES ARE NEGATIVE Base: US, UK, France, Germany Gen Pop (all adults) sample. Sample size 1,000 + in each country. Online. Fieldwork January 7 th -13 th 2014 Poor countries tend to stay poor. Most of the countries that were poor 30 years ago are still poor today.

© Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation | 3 CHANGING THESE OPINIONS IS HARD Proportion that agree ‘Foreign aid is a big waste’ No statistically significant change in any audience group over the course of the survey Top 2 shown (Strongly agree + Somewhat agree) Q#. QBL4 /QPS6 / QPST6. Please indicate the extent to which you agree with the idea that foreign aid is a big waste. Pros Skeptics Swings Indicates a statistically significant change from pre to post at the 90% confidence interval

Questions : How can different media help us achieve this? How can we measure the contribution of media? How should that change what we do? © Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation | 4 WE WANT MORE PEOPLE TO CARE MORE DEEPLY ABOUT PEOPLE LIVING IN THE WORLD’S POOREST PLACES

© Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation | 5 THE ‘THEORY OF CHANGE’ IS NOT LINEAR AwarenessKnowledgeUnderstandingPerceptionBehaviour Individuals’ journeys are messy, reversible, and complex. Media can play a role – but there are other (more) relevant factors (opportunity, ability, motivation)

This is almost useless (and blindingly obvious) in this form, except maybe for audience targeting. Many important questions are left unanswered here: CAUSALITY Reach Attention Persuasive effect Declared behaviour © Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation | 6 DIFFERENT MEDIA CORRELATE WITH DIFFERENT ATTITUDES

© Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation | 7 LONGITUDINAL TRACKING WITH BIG SAMPLES Wave 1Wave 2Wave 3 Simple Sizes (Adults) 8,412 6,529 82% retention New to Wave 3 Wave 2 to Wave 3 retention Wave 1 to Wave 3 retention 8,000 4 countries 10 waves over 5 years Representative online sample, segmented Online methodology, with a panel/

© Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation | 8 INTERDEPENDENT SURVEYS Large-scale Tracking Projects *Grant A *Grant B Identical questions Similar methodology Significant audience data (demographics) for sampling Varying degrees of sophistication Integration with non-survey tracking Trackers provide the baselines, grants help prove hypotheses. Both generate new things to test.

© Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation | 9 It’s actually very difficult to change someone’s mind. Knowledge matters, but it’s not everything. Neutrality (editorial independence) matters. Engagement takes many forms, and different forms have different effects. Humour is pretty effective. The relative importance of each of these factors is very hard to define and specify. That’s next… SOME THINGS THAT WE’RE LEARNING