Gambling Your Future: Effective Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time than we thought

By the Book Gaming  Pools for Fools  Tools for Pools  By my Fantasy  You Betcha

The Problem(s)

The Development Funnel Evaluation and SelectionDevelopmentProjects New Products /Services

Real Funnels: Group B Research Customer Marketing Engineering Strategic Planning OEM Quality Control Cont.

Real Funnels: Group C Central Research Local Inputs Board Heat Product "A" Competitor Boot NIH Resistor (abrasion; slows down the flow) TechProd'nLogSales LAUNCH HERE RELAUNCH HERE 1 1/2 – 2 years2 – 3 hours 8 –12 months leaky

What can we do to get useful Portfolio Management?

Value Models? How Do You Determine Costs? How Do You Determine Benefits?

A Value Model?

Line Change

Value Model!

Decisions, Decisions, Decisions What do we do? When do we do it? When do we decide?

Real Options

Deciding Is Not a Once in a Lifetime Event  Knowledge Improves  Business Conditions Change  Project Conditions Change  Do You Know Why You Are Deciding Early?

ConsiderationsRisksAssumptionsConstraints

Risks – Types of Uncertainty Cost Uncertainty General Market Uncertainty Feature Acceptance Uncertainty

Purpose-Based Alignment Market Differentiating High Low Mission Critical Low High Differentiating ParityWho Cares? Partner Purpose Does Not Equal Priority

Example: Health Insurance Purpose Alignment Market Differentiating High Low Mission Critical Low High Pharmacy Dental Disability Insurance Healthcare analytics Member Medical Home Claims Processing Enrollment Customer Service

Simulation  Get into teams  Choose a representative  Prepare your case

Iteration 1

Iteration 2

Debrief/Retrospective

Buy the Book: Stand Back and Deliver New book by Pixton, Nickolaisen, Little, and McDonald Published by Addison Wesley in Early 2009 Drafts: /booklogin.php

Contact Todd Little    Kent J McDonald:    