Release Date September 29, 2015 The GOP Debates Begin Late Summer 2015 Michael Cornfield Associate Professor Lara Brown Associate Professor Jamie P. Chandler.

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Presentation transcript:

Release Date September 29, 2015 The GOP Debates Begin Late Summer 2015 Michael Cornfield Associate Professor Lara Brown Associate Professor Jamie P. Chandler Data Scientist

Peoria Project GW’s Graduate School of Political Management tracks what’s being said about the 2016 presidential candidates and their campaigns with Zignal Lab’s real-time, cross media story-tracking platform. How do campaign words and messages “play in Peoria?”

SHARE OF VOICE MEASURING ECHOES AS THE DEBATES BEGIN

Indicates 3 days before/after each debate; Indicate trend lines GOP AVERAGES 3X MORE MENTIONS THAN DEMOCRATS

Indicates 3 days before/after each debate TRUMP WINS GOP MENTIONS RACE

SANDERS OVERTAKES CLINTON IN MENTIONS RACE Indicates 3 days before/after each debate

MAINSTREAM MEDIA EMPHASIZES ESTABLISHMENT CANDIDATES

DEBATES CHANGE GOP SHARES OF VOICE

SANDERS LEADS CLINTON POST LABOR DAY

MAINSTREAM MEDIA DOMINATED BY CLINTON; SANDERS EVEN WITH HER IN SOCIAL

SENTIMENT A POSITIVE UPTURN IN SEPTEMBER?

Indicates 3 days before/after each debate; Indicate trend lines IS THERE A TREND TO THE POSITIVE?

GOP SENTIMENT: CARSON AND FIORINA DO BETTER THAN TRUMP

SANDERS THE ONLY DEMOCRAT WITH NET POSITIVE SENTIMENT

TOP FOX NEWS DEBATE TWEETS 8/7/15 TO 8/9/15

TOP 3 RETWEETED RESPONSES TO FOX DEBATE #2 Donald Trump 6,027 Retweets #1 Donald Trump 12,304 Retweets #3 Donald Trump 4,120 Retweets

GOP CANDIDATES’ RESPONSES TO FOX DEBATE #1 Donald Trump 12,304 Retweets #1 #2 Carly Fiorina 3,006 Retweets #1 #3 Ben Carson 1,302 Retweets #1 #4 Ted Cruz 816 Retweets #1 #5 Marco Rubio 796 Retweets #1 #6 Rand Paul 691 Retweets

GOP CANDIDATES’ RESPONSES TO FOX DEBATE CONT’D #1 #7 John Kasich 682 Retweets #1 #8 Scott Walker 596 Retweets #1 #9 Mike Huckabee 343 Retweets #1 #10 Jeb Bush 85 Retweets #1 #11 Chris Christie 35 Retweets

DEMOCRATS’ RESPONSE TO FOX DEBATE #1 Bernie Sanders 32,963 Retweets #1 #2 Hillary Clinton 5,219 Retweets #1 #3 Joe Biden 432 Retweets

TOP CNN NEWS DEBATE TWEETS 9/17/15 TO 9/19/15

TOP 3 RETWEETED RESPONSES TO CNN DEBATE #2 Donald Trump 8,403 Retweets #1 Jeb Bush 29,929 Retweets #3 Donald Trump 6,391 Retweets

Republicans Response to CNN Debate #1 Jeb Bush 29,929 Retweets #1 #2 Donald Trump 8,403 Retweets #1 #3 Ben Carson 2,357 Retweets #1 #4 Ted Cruz 1,428 Retweets #1 #5 Carly Fiorina 796 Retweets #1 #6 Marco Rubio 682 Retweets

Republicans Response to CNN Debate cont’d #1 #7 Scott Walker 135 Retweets #1 #8 Chris Christie 118 Retweets #1 #110 Mike Huckabee 110 Retweets #1 #10 Rand Paul 103 Retweets #1 #11 John Kasich 93 Retweets

DEMOCRATS RESPONSE TO CNN DEBATE #1 Bernie Sanders 11,673 Retweets #1 #2 Hillary Clinton 6,335 Retweets #1 #3 Joe Biden 291 Retweets

Final Thoughts Five candidates benefited from the summer conversation: 1.Trump dominated the conversation, but saw a slight decline in share of voice after the CNN debate. 2.Sanders passed Clinton in share of voice after Labor Day and out-performed her in social media. 3.Carson saw a steady increase in mentions but didn’t see the same growth in his share of voice after the second Republican debate. 4.Fiorina made her move after the Fox undercard debate, which positioned her for a big leap post- CNN debate. 5.Non-candidate Joe Biden had a much larger share of voice among the mainstream media as opposed to the social media.