Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012 2014? 2016?. Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012 Romney: 206 Romney: 206.

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Presentation transcript:

Copyright Larry J. Sabato ? 2016?

Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012 Romney: 206 Romney: 206

Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012 McCain: 173 McCain: 173

Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012

Source: The Washington Post

Source: Crystal Ball’s Prof. Alan Abramowitz Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012 R²=0.96

Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012 Source: Real Clear Politics Debate #1Debate #2 Debate #3

Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012 Obama (D): 63,915,634 (50.8%) Romney (R): 59,885,921 (47.5%) Total (as of 11/26): 127,000,000 Source: Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections

Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012 No renomination challenge First term for Dem Enough economic growth to generate optimism Recovered from 10/3 debate loss Great voter contact/GOTV Demographics

Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012 Romney Romney Women (55%) African Americans (93%) Hispanics (71%) Asians (73%) Age (60%) Age (52%) Men (52%) Whites (59%) White Evangelicals (79%) Age (51%) Age 65+ (56%)

Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012 Define himself before Obama did Use convention better Stress “Mr. Fixit” on the economy Use more $ for GOTV, less on TV Move sharply toward middle in summer Reverse anti-immigration stance Pick a different VP (Rubio, Portman, etc.)

Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012 Source: Vital Stats on American Politics, 2012

Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012 House: 234 R, 201 D Senate: 55 D, 45 R

Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012 CT IN MA ME MO MT ND NE VA WI

20 D13 R Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012

NEW Governors D: WA, MT, NH R: IN, NC

Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012 Races D: 13 R: 22 I: 1

Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012 Party Changes - To D: CO House, ME House + Sen., MN House + Sen., NH House, NY Sen., OR House -To R: AR House + Sen., WI Sen.

Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012 Republicans: A Cast of Thousands Chris Christie Marco Rubio Jeb Bush Rob Portman Bobby Jindal Paul Ryan Rand Paul Susana Martinez Scott Walker Rick Santorum Mike Huckabee Bob McDonnell John Thune Rick Perry Newt Gingrich

Democrats: Return of the Clintons? Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012 Hillary Clinton Joe Biden Andrew Cuomo Elizabeth Warren Mark Warner Brian Schweitzer

Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012 GOOD NEWS: Nat’l Neg. Ad Liberation Month BAD NEWS: Broadway closing “Promises, Promises” End of Pleasure Season, Start of Pain Season

Copyright Larry J. Sabato Free!And…