1 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course 26-29 November 2007 Langen – Germany.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Report on Swiss ORM related activities Ozone Reseach Manager.

Advertisements

Precipitation development; Warm and Cold clouds >0 ° C

Focus on surface wind events in Ireland on the morning of 18 th January 1 Michelle Dillon, Aviation Forecaster November 2007.

EUMETCAL NWP, 26 – 29 November 2007, DWD-BTZ Langen, Germany MOS philosophy and products Dr. Wilfried Jacobs Deutscher Wetterdienst Bildungs- und Tagungszentrum.

Chapter 7- Synoptic climatology Instantaneous climatological conditions a snap shot of what the climate is like at some point in time Typically used in.

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Statistical adaptation of COSMO predictions with the Kalman.

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Improving COSMO-LEPS forecasts of extreme events with.

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss The Latent Heat Nudging Scheme of COSMO EWGLAM/SRNWP Meeting,

Eidgenössisches Departement des Innern EDI Bundesamt für Meteorologie und Klimatologie MeteoSchweiz Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre On the Value of.

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Quantitative precipitation forecasts in the Alps – first.

Analysis and forecast of a weather situation Severe precipitations and thunderstorms on the 7 th of October 2009 J. Neméghaire RMIB – Belgium November.

Federal Departement of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Present-day interannual variability of surface climate.

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Status of D-PHASE Marco Arpagaus 4 th COPS Workshop, Hohenheim,

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Progress in Switzerland Paolo Ambrosetti, MeteoSwiss EMMA.

Operationnal use of high resolution model AROME image source: Sander Tijm, KNMI.

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Operational thunderstorm nowcasting in the Alpine region.

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Parametrization of Subgrid-Scale Orographic Drag in the.

Weather forecasting began in the mid 1800’s when basic tools, like the thermometer and barometer, were invented Global Weather Reporting Weather observations.

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss High-resolution data assimilation in COSMO: Status and.

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Data mining in the joint D- PHASE and COPS archive Mathias.

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Component testing of the COSMO model’s turbulent diffusion.

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Task 1 of PP Interpretation 1.1Further applications of.

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Final PP QPF meeting COSMO General Meeting, 18 September.

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss High resolution COSMO runs for dispersion applications.

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss MAP D-PHASE – a WWRP Forecast Demonstration Project Marco.

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss PP QPF Workshop 8 March 2007, Langen.

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Priority project « Advanced interpretation and verification.

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Accounting for Change: Local wind forecasts from the high-

COSMO WG4 Actvities Concentrated mainly on COSMO LEPS  presentation by Andrea Montani The rest of the activities have been absorbed into the advanced.

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Cost Efficient Use of COSMO-LEPS Reforecasts Felix Fundel,

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Verification results of COSMO at MeteoSwiss in the year.

1 Heavy/Intense Precipitation Precipitation Intensity Precipitation Efficiency Precipitation Duration The precipitation part to the flood/flash flood problem.

Heavy rainfalls in Moldova Elina Plesca, engineer-programmer, Weather Forecasting Center EUMETCAL NWP course, October 22 – December 14, 2007 State Hydrometeorological.

Federal Departement of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Revisiting Swiss temperature trends * Paulo.

L. Mayoraz (1), J. Ambühl (1), R. Voisard (2), C. Voisard (1), M. Züger (2), H. Romang (1) (1) MeteoSwiss, Zurich, Switzerland, (2) University of Zurich,

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Local Probabilistic Weather Predictions for Switzerland.

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss WG4 activities Pierre Eckert, MeteoSwiss, Geneva.

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Quantitative precipitation forecast in the Alps Verification.

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss WG 4 activities.

GPS GPS derived integrated water vapor in aLMo: impact study with COST 716 near real time data Jean-Marie Bettems, MeteoSwiss Guergana Guerova, IAP, University.

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Status of MeteoSwiss 18 September 2008 COSMO GM 2008.

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Sensitivity studies for the Swiss test cases LM User Seminar,

Meteorologisk institutt met.no LOKE – an extreme precipitation event in Western Norway, November 14th 2005 Anne Haaland Simonsen Met.no.

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Status of the COSMO-1 configuration at MeteoSwiss Guy.

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss A more reliable COSMO-LEPS F. Fundel, A. Walser, M. A.

Prolonged heavy rain episode in Lithuania on 5-8 July 2007 Izolda Marcinonienė Lithuanian Hydrometeorological Service.

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss TKE as a measure of turbulence COSMO General Meeting,

October Why this Upper-Level Low? Not an especially severe weather system (near Ireland) Behaviour was a little unusual Surface charts would give.

Bogdan Rosa 1, Marcin Kurowski 1 and Michał Ziemiański 1 1. Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), Warsaw Podleśna, 61

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Statistical Office FSO SESSION II Gender analysis of key Census topics: experience with the previous census.

EMS LJUBLJANA, 2006 Mathias D. Müller 1, C. Schmutz 2, E. Parlow 3 An ensemble assimilation and forecast system for 1D fog prediction 1,3) Institute of.

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Component testing of the COSMO model’s turbulent diffusion.

November Floods After a week of continuous heavy rains over most parts of the country, most rivers became flooded as a result. The rains were most heavy.

Philippe Steiner, MeteoSwiss COSMO General Meeting September 22th, 2005 Plans of MeteoSwiss for next year.

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Probabilities from COSMO-2 derived with the neighborhood.

Kain-Fritsch convection scheme: an update Marco Arpagaus MeteoSwiss.

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Numerical Weather Prediction at MeteoSwiss 8th of October.

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Status of the COSMO-1 configuration at MeteoSwiss Guy.

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Experiments at MeteoSwiss : TERRA / aerosols Flake Jean-Marie.

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss VERSUS: Requirements for TEMPs and windprofilers Francis.

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss WG4 activities Pierre Eckert MeteoSwiss, Geneva.

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Context and Scale Oriented Thunderstorm Satellite Predictors.

1/15 Orographic forcing and Doppler winds, the key for nowcasting heavy precipitation in the mountains Luca Panziera, Urs Germann MeteoSwiss, Locarno-Monti,

WG5-Report from Switzerland: Verification of aLMo in the year 2005

Surface Meteorological charts

Daniel Leuenberger1, Christian Keil2 and George Craig2

COSMO General Meeting 2009 WG5 Parallel Session 7 September 2009

Verification of COSMO-LEPS and coupling with a hydrologic model

Surface Meteorological charts

Presentation transcript:

1 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill 3-4 July 2007 missed heavy precipitation event in the Western Swiss Alps (Or the art of forecasting precipitations in a mountainous region)

2 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill The terrain Geneva Zurich Locarno Bern Lausanne Basel

3 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill Heavy precipitation critical thresholds in Switzerland 50mm/24h 100mm/24h

4 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill Unseasonably strong westerly flow across the Alps. Passage of an active frontal system in this rapid flow Unusually active warm front and warm sector cold front starting to wave against the Alps Mainly large scale precipitations certainly with a convective component (but no thunderstorms) What happened?

5 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill MeteoSwiss Surface analysis – 3 July UTC

6 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill UK Met Office Surface analysis – 4 July UTC

7 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill MeteoSwiss 500 hPa analysis – 3 July UTC

8 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill Western Switzerland WV µm 3 July – 18UTC

9 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill WV µm 4 July – 00UTC Western Switzerland

10 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill

11 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill ECMWF UTC run – 24h precip for 3 and 4 July

12 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill ECMWF UTC run – 24h precip for 3 and 4 July

13 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill ECMWF UTC run – 24h precip for 3 and 4 July

14 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill ECMWF UTC run – 24h precip for 3 and 4 July

15 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill

16 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill

17 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill

18 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill

19 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill

20 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill

21 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill Region receiving more than 50mm/12h

22 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill

23 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill Hourly Precipitation rate in Aigle, le Bouveret and le Moléson

24 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill

25 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill Consequences Floods Landslides Mudslides Power outage Fortunately no injuries or deaths!

26 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill A new tool – MAP D-PHASE

27 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss NWP Eumetcal course November 2007 Langen – Germany Dean Gill … and what about forecasting stratus cloud in mountainous regions?