Copyright © 2000 McGraw-Hill Book Co. Aust. PPT t/a Financial Accounting Theory by Deegan10.1 Financial Accounting Theory Craig Deegan Chapter 10 Reactions of capital markets to financial reporting Slides written by Michaela Rankin

Chapter 10: Capital markets reactions Copyright © 2000 McGraw-Hill Book Co. Aust. PPT t/a Financial Accounting Theory by Deegan10.2 Learning Objectives In this chapter you will be introduced toIn this chapter you will be introduced to –the role of capital market research in assessing the information content of accounting disclosures –the assumptions of market efficiency adopted in capital market research

Chapter 10: Capital markets reactions Copyright © 2000 McGraw-Hill Book Co. Aust. PPT t/a Financial Accounting Theory by Deegan10.3 Learning Objectives –the difference between capital market research that looks at the information content of accounting disclosures, and capital market research that uses share price data as a benchmark for evaluating accounting disclosures –why unexpected accounting earnings and abnormal share price returns are expected to be related –the major results of capital market research into financial accounting and disclosure

Chapter 10: Capital markets reactions Copyright © 2000 McGraw-Hill Book Co. Aust. PPT t/a Financial Accounting Theory by Deegan10.4 Capital market research— introduction Explores the role of accounting and other financial information in equity marketsExplores the role of accounting and other financial information in equity markets involves examining statistical relations between financial information and share pricesinvolves examining statistical relations between financial information and share prices reactions of investors evident from capital market transactionsreactions of investors evident from capital market transactions no share price change implies no reactionno share price change implies no reaction

Chapter 10: Capital markets reactions Copyright © 2000 McGraw-Hill Book Co. Aust. PPT t/a Financial Accounting Theory by Deegan10.5 Capital market versus behavioural research capital market research:capital market research: –assesses the aggregate effect of financial reporting on investors –considers only investors Behavioural research:Behavioural research: –analyses individual responses to financial reporting –examines decision-making by many groups eg. bank managers, loan officers, auditorseg. bank managers, loan officers, auditors

Chapter 10: Capital markets reactions Copyright © 2000 McGraw-Hill Book Co. Aust. PPT t/a Financial Accounting Theory by Deegan10.6 Reasons for capital market research Information about earnings and its components is the primary purpose of financial reportingInformation about earnings and its components is the primary purpose of financial reporting earnings are oriented towards the interests of shareholdersearnings are oriented towards the interests of shareholders earnings is the number most analysed and forecast by security analystsearnings is the number most analysed and forecast by security analysts reliable data on earnings is readily availablereliable data on earnings is readily available

Chapter 10: Capital markets reactions Copyright © 2000 McGraw-Hill Book Co. Aust. PPT t/a Financial Accounting Theory by Deegan10.7 Underlying assumption of CMR—EMH CMR relies on the assumption that equity markets are efficientCMR relies on the assumption that equity markets are efficient –in accordance with Efficient Market Hypothesis efficient market defined as a market that adjusts rapidly to fully impound information into share prices when the information is releasedefficient market defined as a market that adjusts rapidly to fully impound information into share prices when the information is released

Chapter 10: Capital markets reactions Copyright © 2000 McGraw-Hill Book Co. Aust. PPT t/a Financial Accounting Theory by Deegan10.8 Three forms of Market Efficiency Weak form: prices reflect information about past prices and trading volumesWeak form: prices reflect information about past prices and trading volumes Semi-strong form: all publicly available information is rapidly and fully impounded into share prices in an unbiased manner when releasedSemi-strong form: all publicly available information is rapidly and fully impounded into share prices in an unbiased manner when released –most relevant for accounting-based capital market research strong form: security prices reflect all information (public and private)strong form: security prices reflect all information (public and private)

Chapter 10: Capital markets reactions Copyright © 2000 McGraw-Hill Book Co. Aust. PPT t/a Financial Accounting Theory by Deegan10.9 Market efficiency —implications for accounting If markets are efficient they will use information from various sources when predicting future earningsIf markets are efficient they will use information from various sources when predicting future earnings if accounting information does not impact on share prices then it is deemed not to have any information value above that currently availableif accounting information does not impact on share prices then it is deemed not to have any information value above that currently available

Chapter 10: Capital markets reactions Copyright © 2000 McGraw-Hill Book Co. Aust. PPT t/a Financial Accounting Theory by Deegan10.10 Earnings/return relation Share prices are the sum of expected future cash flows from dividends, discounted to their present value using a rate of return commensurate with the company’s riskShare prices are the sum of expected future cash flows from dividends, discounted to their present value using a rate of return commensurate with the company’s risk dividends are a function of accounting earningsdividends are a function of accounting earnings unexpected earnings rather than total earnings expected to be associated with a change in share priceunexpected earnings rather than total earnings expected to be associated with a change in share price

Chapter 10: Capital markets reactions Copyright © 2000 McGraw-Hill Book Co. Aust. PPT t/a Financial Accounting Theory by Deegan10.11 Earnings/return relation— market model Used to separate out firm-specific share price movements from market-wide movementsUsed to separate out firm-specific share price movements from market-wide movements –derived from the Capital Asset Pricing Model assumes investors are risk averse and have homogeneous expectationsassumes investors are risk averse and have homogeneous expectations its use allows the researcher to focus on share price movements due to firm-specific newsits use allows the researcher to focus on share price movements due to firm-specific news

Chapter 10: Capital markets reactions Copyright © 2000 McGraw-Hill Book Co. Aust. PPT t/a Financial Accounting Theory by Deegan10.12 Earnings/return relation— continued Total or actual returns can be divided into:Total or actual returns can be divided into: –normal (expected) returns given market-wide movements –abnormal (unexpected) returns due to firm- specific share price movements abnormal returns used as an indicator of information content of announcementsabnormal returns used as an indicator of information content of announcements

Chapter 10: Capital markets reactions Copyright © 2000 McGraw-Hill Book Co. Aust. PPT t/a Financial Accounting Theory by Deegan10.13 Results of CMR—Ball and Brown (1968) study examined data from 261 US firmsexamined data from 261 US firms tested whether firms with unexpected increases in accounting earnings had positive abnormal returns, and firms with unexpected decreases had negative abnormal returnstested whether firms with unexpected increases in accounting earnings had positive abnormal returns, and firms with unexpected decreases had negative abnormal returns

Chapter 10: Capital markets reactions Copyright © 2000 McGraw-Hill Book Co. Aust. PPT t/a Financial Accounting Theory by Deegan10.14 Results of CMR—Ball and Brown (1968) study—continued Found:Found: –information contained in the annual report, prepared using historical cost was useful to investors –85-90% of earnings announcement is anticipated by investors –much of information is obtained from other sources

Chapter 10: Capital markets reactions Copyright © 2000 McGraw-Hill Book Co. Aust. PPT t/a Financial Accounting Theory by Deegan10.15 Results of CMR—extent of alternative information sources Information content varies between countries and companiesInformation content varies between countries and companies compared to US markets, Australian market had slower adjustments during the year with larger adjustments at earnings announcementcompared to US markets, Australian market had slower adjustments during the year with larger adjustments at earnings announcement –less alternative sources of information for Australian market less alternative sources of information for smaller firms than larger firmsless alternative sources of information for smaller firms than larger firms

Chapter 10: Capital markets reactions Copyright © 2000 McGraw-Hill Book Co. Aust. PPT t/a Financial Accounting Theory by Deegan10.16 Results of CMR—permanent and temporary changes Research examined relation between the magnitude of unexpected changes in earnings (EPS) and magnitude of abnormal returnsResearch examined relation between the magnitude of unexpected changes in earnings (EPS) and magnitude of abnormal returns –known as the earnings response coefficient –a 1% unexpected change in earnings associated with 0.1 to 0.15% abnormal return –depends on whether earnings increases expected to be permanent or temporary

Chapter 10: Capital markets reactions Copyright © 2000 McGraw-Hill Book Co. Aust. PPT t/a Financial Accounting Theory by Deegan10.17 Results of CMR—relative magnitudes of cash and accruals Earnings persistence depends on proportion of accruals relative to cash flowsEarnings persistence depends on proportion of accruals relative to cash flows –firms with large accruals relative to actual cash flows unlikely to have persistently high earnings share prices found to act as if investors ‘fixate’ on reported earnings without considering relative magnitudes of cash and accrual componentsshare prices found to act as if investors ‘fixate’ on reported earnings without considering relative magnitudes of cash and accrual components

Chapter 10: Capital markets reactions Copyright © 2000 McGraw-Hill Book Co. Aust. PPT t/a Financial Accounting Theory by Deegan10.18 Results of CMR—information announcements of other firms Earnings announcements by one firm also results in abnormal returns to other firms in the same industryEarnings announcements by one firm also results in abnormal returns to other firms in the same industry related to whether the news reflects a change in conditions for the entire industry, or changes in relative market share within the industryrelated to whether the news reflects a change in conditions for the entire industry, or changes in relative market share within the industry

Chapter 10: Capital markets reactions Copyright © 2000 McGraw-Hill Book Co. Aust. PPT t/a Financial Accounting Theory by Deegan10.19 Results of CMR—information content of earnings forecasts Announcements of expected earnings rather than actual earnings are associated with share returnsAnnouncements of expected earnings rather than actual earnings are associated with share returns management and security analysts both make forecastsmanagement and security analysts both make forecasts

Chapter 10: Capital markets reactions Copyright © 2000 McGraw-Hill Book Co. Aust. PPT t/a Financial Accounting Theory by Deegan10.20 Results of CMR—benefits of voluntary disclosure Voluntary disclosures include those in annual reports as well as media releases etc.Voluntary disclosures include those in annual reports as well as media releases etc. firms with more disclosure policies have:firms with more disclosure policies have: –larger analyst following and more accurate analyst earnings forecasts –increased investor following –reduced information asymmetry –reduced costs of equity capital

Chapter 10: Capital markets reactions Copyright © 2000 McGraw-Hill Book Co. Aust. PPT t/a Financial Accounting Theory by Deegan10.21 Results of CMR—recognition versus footnote disclosure Recognising an item in the financial statements is perceived differently to disclosure in footnotesRecognising an item in the financial statements is perceived differently to disclosure in footnotes investors place greater reliance on recognised amounts than on disclosed amountsinvestors place greater reliance on recognised amounts than on disclosed amounts

Chapter 10: Capital markets reactions Copyright © 2000 McGraw-Hill Book Co. Aust. PPT t/a Financial Accounting Theory by Deegan10.22 Results of CMR—size Relationship between earnings announcements and share price movements is inversely related to the size of the entityRelationship between earnings announcements and share price movements is inversely related to the size of the entity earnings announcements found to have a greater impact on share prices of smaller firms than larger firmsearnings announcements found to have a greater impact on share prices of smaller firms than larger firms more information generally available for larger firmsmore information generally available for larger firms

Chapter 10: Capital markets reactions Copyright © 2000 McGraw-Hill Book Co. Aust. PPT t/a Financial Accounting Theory by Deegan10.23 Do current prices anticipate future announcements? As firm size increases, share prices incorporate information from wider number of sourcesAs firm size increases, share prices incorporate information from wider number of sources –relatively less unexpected information when earnings are announced may be able to argue that share prices anticipate future earnings announcements for larger firms with some accuracymay be able to argue that share prices anticipate future earnings announcements for larger firms with some accuracy

Chapter 10: Capital markets reactions Copyright © 2000 McGraw-Hill Book Co. Aust. PPT t/a Financial Accounting Theory by Deegan10.24 Accounting earnings reflecting information Rather than determining whether earnings announcements provide information, recent research examines whether earnings announcements reflect information that has been already used by investorsRather than determining whether earnings announcements provide information, recent research examines whether earnings announcements reflect information that has been already used by investors –‘looking back the other way’ –market prices viewed as leading accounting earnings

Chapter 10: Capital markets reactions Copyright © 2000 McGraw-Hill Book Co. Aust. PPT t/a Financial Accounting Theory by Deegan10.25 Accounting earnings reflecting information—continued Share prices are considered as benchmark measures of firm valueShare prices are considered as benchmark measures of firm value share returns are considered as benchmark measures of firm performanceshare returns are considered as benchmark measures of firm performance benchmarks are then used to compare usefulness of alternative accounting and disclosure methodsbenchmarks are then used to compare usefulness of alternative accounting and disclosure methods based on premise that market values and book values are both measures of firm valuebased on premise that market values and book values are both measures of firm value

Chapter 10: Capital markets reactions Copyright © 2000 McGraw-Hill Book Co. Aust. PPT t/a Financial Accounting Theory by Deegan10.26 Accounting earnings reflecting information—continued If market value is related to book value, returns should be related to accounting earnings per share, divided by price at the beginning of the accounting periodIf market value is related to book value, returns should be related to accounting earnings per share, divided by price at the beginning of the accounting period –provides an underlying reason why we should expect returns to be related to earnings over time

Chapter 10: Capital markets reactions Copyright © 2000 McGraw-Hill Book Co. Aust. PPT t/a Financial Accounting Theory by Deegan10.27 Results of CMR—Accounting earnings reflecting information Beaver, Lambert and Morse (1980) found share prices and related returns were related to accounting earningsBeaver, Lambert and Morse (1980) found share prices and related returns were related to accounting earnings because of various information sources, price appeared to anticipate future accounting earningsbecause of various information sources, price appeared to anticipate future accounting earnings supported by Beaver, Lambert and Ryan (1987)supported by Beaver, Lambert and Ryan (1987)

Chapter 10: Capital markets reactions Copyright © 2000 McGraw-Hill Book Co. Aust. PPT t/a Financial Accounting Theory by Deegan10.28 Results of CMR—Earnings reflecting information cont. Collins, Kothari and Rayburn (1987) found evidence that share prices was a better indicator of future earnings in larger firms than smaller firmsCollins, Kothari and Rayburn (1987) found evidence that share prices was a better indicator of future earnings in larger firms than smaller firms Dechow (1994) found over short intervals earnings are more strongly associated with returns than are realised cash flowsDechow (1994) found over short intervals earnings are more strongly associated with returns than are realised cash flows –the ability of cash flows to measure firm performance increases as the measurement interval increases

Chapter 10: Capital markets reactions Copyright © 2000 McGraw-Hill Book Co. Aust. PPT t/a Financial Accounting Theory by Deegan10.29 Results of CMR—Earnings reflecting information cont. Studies examining which asset value approaches provide accounting figures that best reflect market valuation found:Studies examining which asset value approaches provide accounting figures that best reflect market valuation found: –fair value estimates of bank’s financial instruments seem to provide a better explanation of bank share prices than historical cost (Barth, Beaver and Landsman 1996) –revaluation of assets results in better alignment of market and book values (Easton, Eddy and Harris 1993)