Proton Plan PMG 2/22/06 E Prebys 1 Some Disclaimers I’ll be 100% honest These are my personal opinions  Pretty much in line with conversations I’ve had with Roger and the director I could be wrong. No one can promise anything based on US science funding.

Proton Plan PMG 2/22/06 E Prebys 2 The Importance of the LHC The LHC at CERN is scheduled to come on line in 2007, with “real physics” coming out in a couple of years.  Fermilab’s future depends on what the LHC finds.  No concrete decisions until then.  Largely “status quo” until ~2010, at least in terms of total staff. Will fluctuate a bit based on congressional whims and external factors (like wars) TeV shuts down in 2009 Possible results:  LHC sees Higgs plus other new things: Great! HEP is exciting again! ILC is obvious choice for next machine, and Fermilab is the most logical site.  LHC sees Higgs and nothing else ILC more controversial. Many will claim it’s overkill. Will probably proceed, but more slowly. Might be killed outright or mothballed.  LHC sees nothing interesting ILC not the right machine. HEP reduced Other projects *possibly* move forward.

Proton Plan PMG 2/22/06 E Prebys 3 As Goes the ILC… If it is built with a reasonably high priority  There’s a high probability Fermilab will be the site  If that happens, jobs and funding secure through probably 2020 or beyond. If it’s built here with a low priority  Staff and funding will fluctuate over the next decade. If it’s not built, or not built here.  Neutrino program will carry the lab Best scenario –Proton driver built –Most jobs preserved through ~2015 at least Middle scenario –Alternate ideas (like McGinnis) pursued –Some reduction ~2010, then stable through Worst scenario –Nothing new built –Lab becomes “outsourcing center” for remote projects, like a university –Possibly significant reductions, starting in 2010.

Proton Plan PMG 2/22/06 E Prebys 4 Summary: Most likely… Nothing significant will happen until about  Maybe a few “hiccups” on the scale of what we’ve already seen, but I don’t think they’ll affect this department. If the ILC is built:  This Proton Source will need to last until something like  But there will also be lots of other jobs at the lab before and after that. If the ILC is not built (or not here):  Maybe the proton driver will be built We will need this Proton Source until at least ~2013 or so. Probably other jobs after that for at least a few years  If the PD is not built I believe the neutrino program will still fly This source will have to last until close to 2020.

Proton Plan PMG 2/22/06 E Prebys 5 Some Questions You Might Ask It sounds like we’ll need the Proton Source for a long time, but can someone from the Tevatron bump me out of my job when it shuts down?  It’s possible, but not automatic (like a union).  It would have to someone the lab thought could do your job better than you. Is the new Director doing the best he can for the lab’s future?  I think so.  Pier is very realistic about the possibility that the ILC will not be built, or not be built here, and is taking concrete steps to insure that the lab remains viable until at least  His plans are much more believable than the “long range planning exercise” of a couple of years ago.

Proton Plan PMG 2/22/06 E Prebys 6 The Director’s Plan Strongly pursue the ILC Do not put forward the Proton Driver as an official project at this time, BUT  Push an ILC test string that just happens to be what you would need for the beta=1 part of the PD.  Spend the incremental money to put that underground and in the right place for a PD.  Do enough R&D that you can quickly move to build the beta<1 part of the PD and tie it into the Main Injector  Be ready to propose this if the ILC is not built, or built on a long timescale.  The claim is that this strategy has support in Washington. Pursue all other reasonable paths  Recycler and/or Accumulator retasking, etc for neutrino program  Soliciting other interesting experiments, like MECO.

Proton Plan PMG 2/22/06 E Prebys 7 Should Bill Foster’s Resignation Scare Me? Bill believes that the lab is going in the wrong direction:  This is more a statement about physics that job security Bill is a very smart guy with a long history of walking away from things when they didn’t go his way:  VLHC  Recycler  Proton Driver

Proton Plan PMG 2/22/06 E Prebys 8 Job Security: Putting things in Perspective Most secure Least secure God Being a Kennedy (if you live) Fermilab entrepreneur Professional gambler Tenured university professor Actor, musician, etc “regular job”