© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008 Edward Garner Communications Director Worldpanel – UK The Shifting Sands of Retail Coombe Abbey - October 2008
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008 Edward Garner Communications Director Worldpanel – UK The Shifting Sands of Retail Coombe Abbey - October 2008 Downturn?
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008
Grocers +7.3% Non-Grocers -3.2%
Grocery Price Inflation – TNS Calculation Based on year-on-year comparisons of price paid for over 75,000 identical products including promotions and in the proportion that British households are purchasing them
Tesco Asda Morrisons Sainsbury's Aldi Lidl Iceland Waitrose Somerfield Netto M&S (-ve growth) Significant (top 20) grocery switching flows Switching out only for M&S, Waitrose and Sainsbury’s Switching restricted to 11 retailers
Tesco Asda Morrisons Sainsbury's Aldi Lidl Waitrose Significant (top 20) grocery switching flows Clear movement to the value end of the spectrum Iceland Discount Retailers Premium Retailers Somerfield M&S (-ve growth) Line width is size of the switch Bubble size is the total growth of retailer Switching restricted to 11 retailers
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008 Switching cascades down the hierarchy Each tier flows to every tier below. An implied price/value ranking Standard Own Label Branded Value Own Label No Brand Name Premium Own Label Line width is size of the switch Bubble size is the total growth of the tier
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008
® Agenda Tesco – Slowing Asda – not just C2DE Sainsbury – Mass/Up/Market Morrisons – Surge Waitrose – The Ethical consumer Discounters – Flocking Home Delivery
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008 ® Agenda Tesco – Slowing Asda – not just C2DE Sainsbury – Mass/Up/Market Morrisons – Surge Waitrose – The Ethical consumer Discounters – Flocking Home Delivery
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008
87.6% 27 x 52 wkly periods ending Sep
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008
Latest 12-wk % Change +29% +25% +33% +56%
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008
12 wk y-o-y trend -11%
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008 Tesco PL Lifestyle Indices Tesco Finest Tesco Value “I regard myself as a connoisseur of food and wine” “Price is the most important factor when buying a product” Share indexed on Total Trade – 52 w/e Sep
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008
® Agenda Tesco – Slowing Asda – not just C2DE Sainsbury – Mass/Up/Market Morrisons – Surge Waitrose – The Ethical consumer Discounters – Flocking Home Delivery
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008
13.7 C2DE Large households Younger With children
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008 Trading Indices - Asda Broad Areas indexed on Total Groceries 52 w/e Sep
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008 Strong performance in ‘Fresh’
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008 Strong performance in Organic
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008 Fastest growing premium PL 12 wk y-o-y trend +18%
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008 More sales to ‘Held’ Shoppers Asda, Rolling Source of Change in Spend
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008 Net Switching Volumes to Asda
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008 Net Switching Volumes to Asda
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008 Net Switching Volumes to Asda
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008 Net Switching Volumes to Asda
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008 Net Switching Volumes to Asda
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008
Sharper price focus
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008
® Agenda Tesco – Slowing Asda – not just C2DE Sainsbury – Mass/Up/Market Morrisons – Surge Waitrose – The Ethical consumer Discounters – Flocking Home Delivery
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008
12 wk y-o-y trend -1%
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008 Trading Indices - Sainsbury Broad Areas indexed on Total Groceries 52 w/e Sep
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008
Till Roll Share indexed on All Shoppers – 52 w/e Jul Worldpanel Lifestyles - Sainsbury Share Index
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008 Fairtrade
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008
Total Grocers
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008 Total Grocers Sainsbury
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008 Total Grocers Sainsbury Waitrose
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008 Free Range Eggs
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008
Total Grocers
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008 Total Grocers Sainsbury
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008 Total Grocers Waitrose Sainsbury
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008 Chickens
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008 Chickens Hens Eggs
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008 The Olive Index
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008
Trading Indices - Sainsbury Broad Area Market Sector Market 52 w/e Sep
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008
Total Switching Gains £14 Million
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008 Sainsbury, Rolling Source of Change in Spend
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008 Sainsbury's strong Repeat but needs ‘new’ shoppers – poor price perception?
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008 Net Switching to Sainsbury from Morrisons Tot
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008 ® Agenda Tesco – Slowing Asda – not just C2DE Sainsbury – Mass/Up/Market Morrisons – Surge Waitrose – The Ethical consumer Discounters – Flocking Home Delivery
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008
Store sell-offs Now stable Real Growth
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008 Morrisons Growth from both existing and new shoppers
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008 Morrisons Shoppers – London Lifestyles Till Roll Share indexed on All Shoppers – 52 w/e Mar
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008 In the opinion of Londoners……… =
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008
Trading Indices - Morrisons Broad Areas indexed on Total Groceries 52 w/e Sep
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008 Trading Indices - Morrisons Market Sectors indexed on Total Groceries 52 w/e Sep
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008 Trading Indices - Morrisons Markets indexed on Total Groceries 52 w/e Sep
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008
The Morrisons Difference
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008
® Agenda Tesco – Slowing Asda – not just C2DE Sainsbury – Mass/Up/Market Morrisons – Surge Waitrose – The Ethical consumer Discounters – Flocking Home Delivery
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008
Worldpanel Lifestyles - Waitrose Share Index Till Roll Share indexed on All Shoppers – 52 w/e Jul
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008 Organic
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008 £m’s Total Organic Products Annualised Value = £1,300m
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008
Trading Indices - Waitrose Broad Area Market Sector Market 52 w/e Sep
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008
P1 P2
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008
Aldi
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008 Lidl
© Worldpanel TM division of TNS 2008
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