Seasonality: The PowerPoint Michael Glantz NCAR January 26, 2006

“It is difficult to find any aspect of rural life in the tropical third world which is not touched by seasonality” “Does seasonality make some people poor and keep them poor”? (Chambers, 1981, p.xvi; p. 2, respectively)

Examples of seasonality

Seasonality definitions The changing availability of resources according to the different seasons of the year Periodic fluctuations in the climate related to seasons of the year e.g. wet winters, drier summers Many time series display seasonality. By seasonality, we mean periodic fluctuations. Seasons are defined differently in different environments and by different societies. Of or dependent on a particular season Cyclicality in a business or the economy from one season to the next. Changes in business, employment or buying patterns which occur predictably at given times of the year.

Why focus on Seasonality? Most people, socio-economic sectors and societies are more dependent on the expected flow of the seasons than they realize For a couple of billion people it is a life- death concern For many others it may be a health or an economic concern

Seasonality and climate Various parts of the globe are affected by seasonal hazards Droughts Floods Fires Tropical storms Growing seasons, harvests, rainy seasons, summertime vacations, ski and other sports seasons, and the like

Seasonality science Each location on the globe has a marked seasonality Human activities are attuned to that flow of the seasons More accurately, they’re attuned to the expected flow of the seasons: hot, cold; wet, dry; calm, stormy, etc. Anything that disrupts that flow, disrupts human activities.

Aspects of seasonality Precipitation Temperature Solar radiation Cloudiness Relative humidity Wind speed and direction Normal length & flow of the seasons 1816: the year without a summer

Seasonality and extreme events There are seasons for various kinds of climate- and weather-related events A hurricane, typhoon, cyclone season Fire season Growing season Hot, cold; wet, dry seasons Rainy season Hunger season Snowmelt season Etc.

People and the seasons People, societies, and economies are attuned to the normal (expected, not actual) flow of the seasons Most people on the globe depend on the normal flow of the seasons for their food supply Industrialized countries have $$$ to rebuild and compensate for superstorm damages; poorer countries are forced to live with the damage and for the most part, cope on their own

High impact events are a worldwide problem Every part of the globe is affected by…. –a high impact weather event –a climate anomaly –Death, destruction and misery from either Frequencies and impacts vary –location to location –For same type event at different times Impacts are regional/local –Second-order effects are national

International Red Cross predicts more global 'Super Disasters' Disaster Losses on the Rise -- May 21, 1999 New Studies Indicate Earth's Future is Looking Hotter, Less Stable -- March 3, 1999 Intensity of Hurricane Seasons Expected to Worsen in Coming Years -- August 10, 1998

Seasonal impacts Latitude specific Locale specific Human activity specific Ecological process specific Vector borne diseases Floods, droughts, fires, epidemics Hunger season Rangelands productivity Tourism

Things people do to override the influences of the natural flow of the seasons Irrigation Refrigeration, heating Air conditioning Greenhouses Export & import agricultural produce Feeding pens Voluntary migration

Law & Policy Restriction on burning wood in winter Restrictions on fishing certain species Restrictions on water withdrawals for irrigation purposes Seasonal water use restrictions Restrictions on hunting season

Seasonality and Politics E.g., transboundary water issues Conflict between Kyrgyzstan & Uzbekistan Kyrgyzstan wants to release water downstream in the winter to generate heat Uzbekistan wants the water released in the spring and summer for use in irrigation Conflict between Spain and Portugal Arid Spain built reservoirs on rivers flowing to the sea across Portugal Downstream Portuguese farmers received streamflow only after Spanish reservoirs released it, altering by some weeks the farming practices in Portugal

Seasonal economics (various sources on Google) Seasonality has been a major research area in economics for several decades seasonality factors are always something we have to take into account economic shocks for peasants in 1983 were seasonal climatic shocks The nature of seasonality in Spanish tourism time series Coping with Seasonality and Drought will interest both students and professionals in anthropology, development economics, gender studies, social and economic change. Prevalence, seasonality and economic importance of disease conditions in Nigeria cattle population Seasonality of Asthma at Local Hospitals Conference on Seasonality in Economic and Financial Variables Improved Seasonality of Flows through Irrigation Demand Management and System HarmonisationTM seasonality as an essential concept in planning, implementing, monitoring and evaluating land-based rural development programmes SEASONALITY IN INDUSTRIAL COMMODITIES

Seasonal ethics & equity The hunger season Seasonal health problems malaria dengue cholera outbreaks Upstream vs downstream water needs