2012 Wildfire Season Outlook

“Recent” Wildfire History Winter – VERY DRY followed by the Summer 2002 – Colorado Hayman Fire Coal Seam Fire Missionary Ridge Fire Big Fish Numerous other fires

Versus SNOTEL Annual Precip. % as of Yampa & White River Basin: 67 % 69 % Upper Colorado River Basin: 61 % 66 % Gunnison River Basin: 60 % 73 % Dolores/San Miguel R. Basin: 53 % 81 % Missionary Ridge – Summer 2002

Gunnison River Basin SNOTEL SWE - Oct. 1 – May 10

Upper Colorado River Basin SNOTEL SWE - Oct. 1 – May 10

Yampa-White River Basin SNOTEL SWE - Oct. 1 – May 10

San Miguel River Basin SNOTEL SWE - Oct. 1 – May 10

Dolores River Basin SNOTEL SWE - Oct. 1 – May 10

San Juan River Basin SNOTEL SWE - Oct. 1 – May 10

SNOTEL Current S.W.E.

Precipitation % of Normal 10/1/11 – 5/1/12 Based on all precipitation reporting sites

Soil Moisture % of Normal 10/1/11 – 5/6/12

Historical ENSO Influence ? Winter Neutral Winter La Nina 2 nd consecutive La Nina winter

Historical ENSO Influence ? Since 1900, there have been 11 back-to-back La Nina winters In western Colorado... 9 events - 2 nd year drier than first 2 events - 2 nd year wetter than first ( early 1950s & mid 1970s) Dr. Klaus Wolter, NOAA Research Scientist

Drought Assessment 5/8/12

Drought Assessment – 5/8/12

May 2012 Climate Outlook Precipitation Temperatures

Early Summer 2012 Precipitation Temperatures

Late Summer-Early Fall 2012 Monsoon Season Precipitation Temperatures

Winter ??? “…equal chances of Neutral or [weak] El Niño conditions…“ Climate Prediction Center

NWS Grand Junction Geared Up for Active Fire WX Season wx.gov/gjt