Understanding the Science of Climate Change Susquehanna University January 9, 2015

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Presentation transcript:

Understanding the Science of Climate Change Susquehanna University January 9,

Key Concepts Energy Balance  Energy In versus Energy Out Greenhouse Gases  Affect Balance Evidence of Energy Imbalance Ocean Atmosphere Land and Sea Ice Sea Level

How Does Earth Gain and Lose Heat? Earth exists in near-perfect vacuum, a near-perfect insulator Energy is gained and lost ONLY by radiation Earth gains energy by absorption of radiation from the sun Earth releases energy by emission of thermal radiation from Earth

Top of Atmosphere (TOA) Energy Balance Solar Irradiation (short wave) TSI OLR Earth Thermal Radiation (long wave)

Comparison of TSI and OLR Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) from Earth (Increases as temperature of Earth increases) Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) from Sun Wavelength, micrometers Intensity

Absorbed in Atmosphere: Water vapor, Ozone, Dust, Clouds Reflected (Albedo): Ice, Snow, Desert Sand, Clouds, Aerosols Absorbed at Surface: Oceans, Forests, Fields, etc. Fates of TSI ergy_balance_of_Earth

Top of Atmosphere (TOA) Satellites Measure TSI and OLR 1. NASA’s Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) Measures TSI 2. NASA CERES Project Measures OLR and Reflected TSI from Earth

SORCE TSI Measurements DecadeAve. TSI, W/m

Greenhouse Gases (GHG) Certain trace gases in atmosphere, water vapor, and clouds can absorb OLR and reduce the amount of heat leaving Earth Key GHG are CO 2, CH 4, O 3, and N 2 O Earth Thermal Radiation

Composition of Atmosphere (Dry) on Earth 99.96% of dry atmosphere is transparent to OLR Greenhouse Gases: CO 2 (0.0395%), CH 4 (.00018%), O 3 (< %), and Water (0.4 %)

Effect of GHG on Cooling by OLR No GHG in Atmosphere GHG Present in Atmosphere

Increasing Atmospheric CO 2 CO 2, ppm CO 2 Results from Burning Fossil Fuels, Cement Production, and Deforestation

Increasing CH 4 in the Atmosphere 0/145558/methane_eoe_atmosphere.jpg CH 4 Results from Agriculture, Fossil Fuel Extraction, Release From Methane Clathrates in the Tundra and Arctic

If OLR Decreases An Imbalance Results in Which Energy Out < Energy In Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Will Warm Ice Will Melt Oceans Will Rise

Where Does Excess Heat Go?

Measuring Ocean Heat Content (OHC) Worldwide

ARGO System for Ocean Temperatures _park_profile.jpg

Distribution of ARGO Floats

OHC J

Measuring the Temperature of the Atmosphere Surface Temperatures Tropospheric Temperatures

Measuring a Global Surface Temperature

NASA AQUA Satellite – Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) Used for Tropospheric Temperatures and for Sea Ice Extent

Tropospheric Temperatures Compared with Surface Temperatures ΔT ̊CΔT ̊C

Measuring the Melting of Ice Sea Ice (Floating) Land Ice (Ice Sheets/Glaciers)

Melting of Arctic Sea Ice Sea Ice Land Ice

Arctic Sea Ice Extent

Melting of Land Ice Greenland

content/92163main_craft1-browse.jpg GRACE Mission

From GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) Satellite Data

Measuring the Average Worldwide Sea Level

Jason II – Ocean Surface Topography Mission

Sea Level from Satellite Radar Altimetry Data

So, What Does the Science Tell Us? Atmospheric GHG are increasing and lowering the outgoing radiation (OLR) All elements of Earth’s climate system are warming simultaneously Observed warming is predicted and explained by increasing greenhouse gases in atmosphere

Possible Impacts Disruption of Agriculture Spread of Invasive Species/Disease Severe Weather Events Rising Seal Level – Costal Cities Forest Fires Ocean Acidification – Coral & Food Chain Thawing of Tundra – Methane Altering Climate Circulation Systems

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