1 Given the following data, calculate forecasts for months April through June using a three- month moving average and an exponential smoothing forecast.

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Presentation transcript:

1 Given the following data, calculate forecasts for months April through June using a three- month moving average and an exponential smoothing forecast with an alpha of 0.2. Use the naïve method to start the exponential smoothing process.

2 A 3-month moving average forecast for April is the average of the actual sales figures of January, February, and March.

3 A 3-month moving average forecast for May is the average of the actual sales figures of February, March and April.

4 A 3-month moving average forecast for June is the average of the actual sales figures of March, April and May.

5 Using the naïve method to start the process means the forecast of February is assumed to be the actual of January (i.e., F 2 =A 1 ).An exponential smoothing with  = 0.2 forecast for March is computed by the formula  x Actual of February + (1-  ) x Forecast of February.

6 An exponential smoothing with  = 0.2 forecast for April is computed by the formula  x Actual of March + (1-  ) x Forecast of March. The forecast of March is its exponential smoothing forecast computed in the previous slide.

7 An exponential smoothing with  = 0.2 forecast for May is computed by the formula  x Actual of April + (1-  ) x Forecast of April. The forecast of April is its exponential smoothing forecast computed in the previous slide.

8 An exponential smoothing with  = 0.2 forecast for June is computed by the formula  x Actual of May + (1-  ) x Forecast of May. The forecast of May is its exponential smoothing forecast computed in the previous slide.