National Integrated Drought Information System Drought Early Warning for the Apalachicola- Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin 14 October 2014

Outline Welcome – Eric Reutebuch, AU Water Resources Center Current drought status – David Zierden, Florida Climate Center, FSU Streamflows and groundwater – Tony Gotvald, USGS Seasonal forecasts and outlooks – David Zierden, FSU Streamflow forecasts – Jeff Dobur, SERFC Summary and Discussion

Current drought status David Zierden

October Drying Welcome

Vigorous Low Pressure System

7-day Rainfall Totals

Lawn and Garden Moisture Index

30-Day Rainfall

90-day Rainfall Departures

Realtime stream flow compared with historical monthly averages Current: Previous Brief: Tony Gotvald

Below Normal 7-day Average Streamflows Below normal 7-day average streamflow as compared with historical streamflow for day shown Current: Previous brief:

Lake Lanier Inflows Chattahoochee near Cornelia ( ) Chestatee near Dahlonega ( )

Current Streamflows Chattahoochee at Atlanta ( ) Chattahoochee near Whitesburg ( )

Current Streamflows Chattahoochee at West Point ( ) Chattahoochee at Columbus( )

Current Streamflows Flint River near Griffin ( ) Flint River near Carsonville ( )

Current Streamflows Flint River at Albany ( ) Flint at Bainbridge ( )

Streamflows Apalachicola at Chattahoochee ( )

Groundwater Conditions Previous briefCurrent brief

Groundwater Status – Miller County 08G001 (Upper Floridan Aquifer)

Groundwater Status – Seminole County 06F001 (Upper Floridan Aquifer)

Groundwater Status – Early County 08K001 (Upper Floridan Aquifer)

7-Day Precipitation Forecast David Zierden

7-day average Pacific Ocean SST Anomalies

Nino Indices

Multivariate ENSO Index

Winds Over the Pacific

Subsurface Temperatures Late AprilCurrent

ENSO Model Forecast

1-3 Month Precipitation Outlook 1 Month 3 Month

Other Signs of El Nino Dry summer in the Southeast Inactive Atlantic hurricane season Very active E. Pacific hurricane season Active SW Monsoon NOAA forecast 65% Australia BOM 50% Klaus Wolter 80-90% Tallahassee recorded the driest summer ever at 8.66 inches

October Hurricane Tracks

Florida Hurricane Drought

Summer Rainfall Climatology

U.S. Drought Outlook

Above Normal Near Normal Below Normal Lake Lanier Inflows Whitesburg West Point Columbus WF George Columbus Woodruff Blountstown Lovejoy Carsonville Albany Jeff Dobur

Severe drought hanging on in South Georgia, significant improvement over the entire area anticipated. Ongoing event brings 30-day totals up to normal. 90-day totals are mixed in the middle and upper basin, still below normal in the lower ACF 10-day dry period was well-timed for row crop harvest (peanut, cotton, corn) Development of El Nino is now very late, but weak event still possible. E. Pacific hurricane season and Southeast Summer dryness could be signs Inactive Atlantic hurricane season continues Climatologically can only expect 2-3” in October, more in November. Summary-David Zierden

Summary-Tony Gotvald Realtime streamflows are in the normal to below normal range throughout the ACF basin. Inflows into Lake Lanier are in the below normal range. Streamflows are below normal throughout the Flint River basin. Groundwater levels are in the normal range in Southwest Georgia

Summary-Jeff Dobur 1 Month Streamflow forecast - Near Normal 3 Month Streamflow forecast – Near Normal, nearly equal chances at all 3 categories Not much change from previous forecast

Questions, Comments, Discussion

References Speakers David Zierden, FSU Tony Gotvald, USGS Jeff Dobur, SERFC Moderator Eric Reutebuch, AU WRC Additional information General drought information General climate and El Niño information Streamflow monitoring & forecasting Groundwater monitoring

Thank you! Next briefing November 18, 2014 November 18, 2014, 1:00 pm EDT Moderator: Eric Reutebuch Slides from this briefing will be posted at Please send comments and suggestions to: