1 Earth System Science: Understanding & Protecting Our Home Planet Ghassem R. Asrar, Ph.D Associate Administrator for Earth Science January 5, 2004

2 A Typical Star in a Typical Galaxy…

3 Earth was here 100M years ago Earth will be here in 50M years We are here Transient Passengers in Space & Time

4 …but the only known harbor for life in the universe

5 The Societal Motivation -- Worldwide Global population today exceeds 6 billion; we added 3.5 billion -- more than doubling the population -- in the last 50 years Over the same period, world economic output grew seven fold, and grain yields nearly tripled Still, over 1.2 billion still live in severe poverty, and 1.1 billion do not have access to clean drinking water  Can the Earth sustain this pace of development in the future?

6 The Societal Motivation -- U.S. Up to $2.2 trillion of U.S. economic activity are affected annually by weather and climate events 54 weather-related disasters costing over $1 billion each between 1980 and 2002 $200 billion total between 1988 and 2002 alone 4x population and property assets along hurricane-prone coastlines over the past 30 years; now 45 million people $5 billion annually from flooding; $6-8 billion from droughts In 2000, wildfires burned 8.4 million acres, destroyed 900 structures, and cost $1.36 billion FEMA obligated almost $7 billion in relief costs for the 1994 Northridge earthquake From “Reducing Disaster Vulnerability Through Science & Technology” NSTC, July 2003

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8 Earth Science in NASA’s Mission Understand and Protect Our Home Planet by using our view from space to study the Earth system and improve prediction of Earth system change Help Explore the Universe and Search for Life by applying our scientific understanding of the Earth system to the identification and study of Earth-like planets around other stars Inspire the Next Generation of Earth Explorers by providing Earth system science content and training to educators, and by sponsoring the education and early careers of Earth scientists

9 ESE Research is Part of an End-to-End Program of Science for Society

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11 Understand & Protect Our Home Planet ERBS Terra Aqua GRACE QuikScat SAGE III SeaWinds TRMM TOMS-EP UARS Jason Landsat 7 SORCE ACRIMSAT EO-1 TOPEX/Poseidon SeaWiFS ICESat We have given the world its first capability to study the Earth as a system

12 Next Generation Missions

13 Applications of National Priority Agricultural Efficiency Air QualityInvasive Species Water Management Disaster Management Coastal Management Homeland Security Carbon Management Aviation Safety Energy Forecasting Public Health Ecological Forecasting

14 Inspire the Next Generation of Earth Explorers

15 Technology Information Synthesis: Distributed, Reconfigurable, Autonomous Access to Knowledge: On-orbit Processing, Immersive Environments Challenges to Enable Future Science - Laser/Lidar technology to enable Earth system science measurements - Large Deployables to enable future weather/climate/ natural hazards measurements - Intelligent Distributed Systems using optical communication, on-board reprogrammable processors, autonomous network control, data compression, high density storage - Information Knowledge Capture through 3-D Visualization, holographic memory and seamlessly linked models.

16 Flight Operations, Data Capture, Initial Processing, Backup Archive Data Transport to DAACs Science Data Processing, Info Mgmt, Data Archive, & Distribution Distribution, Access, Interoperability, Reuse Spacecraft NASA Integrated Services Network (NISN) Mission Services WWW Value-Added Providers Interagency Data Centers Int’l Partners & Data Centers Data Acquisition Ground Stations Tracking & Data Relay Satellite (TDRS) Research Users Education Users Science Teams Data Processing & Mission Control Polar Ground Stations Data System Architecture DAACs - EOSDIS ESIPs REASoNs with ESIPs & REASoNs

17 Turning Observations Into Knowledge Products

18 Evolving EOSDIS Elements Evolve data systems to achieve “stability with innovation”. Current Data System Context EOSDIS operation volumes include: – 2,178 unique data products – 4.5TB of daily ingest – 2TB of daily distribution – Over 2 million distinct users for 2003 Approach to system evolution Work with the ESE advisory committee (ESSAAC) to develop a plan for the way forward (plan expected within a year). Identify which current systems and functions need to evolve, e.g., bandwidth and storage capacity Work with the community (e.g. REASoN) to implement changes

19 Drivers of Evolving Data & Info Systems Missions to Measurements ESE is moving from mission-based data systems to those that focus on Earth science measurements. ESE’s DIS will be a resource for science-focused communities enabling research, and will be flexible, scalable and suited for the particular community needs. Continue on the pathways for acquiring observations to understand processes and develop Earth system models. The Advance of Information Technologies NASA will remain at the forefront of IT development and will partner with other agencies to ensure the strategic use of IT resources to avoid obsolescence and enable enhanced performance. The lowering cost of IT infrastructure enables ESE data systems to take advantage of improving computation, storage and network capabilities. Facilitate the Transition from Research to Operations Work with Federal partners to transition operational elements of data systems to other agencies while maintaining core data system functions necessary for conducting NASA ESE mission and goals.

20 Federation Contributions to the Evolution of EOSDIS The Federation has contributed to existing DIS capabilities through prototyping, partnering and implementation activities. Access and Interoperability -OpenDAP (A data protocol that has allowed the science community to be active participants in a distributed data infrastructure - interconnecting DAACs, ESIPs and others) -ESML (The Earth Science Markup Language provides a means for describing disparate data types to enhance search and service capabilities.) Data Analysis and Processing Tools -GIS-friendly formats (ESIPs offering data converted into GIS formats enabling rapid use of ESE data.) -Search, Discover and Order (Several new data portals where user communities can easily obtain the particular data needed - this has been very successful in the land research communities.) -Prototypes for Exploring Emerging Capabilities (Subsetting, reprojection, and aggregation; data mining and discovery tools).

21 Challenges Ahead Focus on timely delivery of data and information to users. Transform observations collected into useful information - from terabytes of data into megabytes of knowledge. Invest in technology that improves access to knowledge. Seek “integrated solutions” that use NASA Earth science capabilities to address applications of national importance. Place substantive and concerted effort on the needs of educational users. Provide brokering service connecting the technological capabilities of educational communities with the continuing evolution of NASA’s data information systems. Provide opportunities for the community to work with NASA to meet national goals in research, applications and education. The Federation should look at the ways in which its contributions can aid us in this mission. The coming decade calls for:

Components of a Future Global System for Earth Observation

23 Opportunities to Work with NASA Work with principal investigators in research applications and education to develop data system tools and techniques concurrent with project objectives. Respond to solicitations beyond those focused on data and information systems. Anticipated ESE opportunities this year: Carbon cycle Water and energy cycle National applications Oceans and Ice Cyclones, chemistry, clouds and convection Develop new techniques for linking users to data and data products. Modeling and ESMF (Earth Science Modeling Framework). Earth Explorers: Integrated Solutions for K-16 and Informal Education.

24 Summary The new strategy describes the priorities and direction of the program for the next decade. Data and information systems will evolve to meet ESE’s science requirements including timely access to ESE Earth science observations, information, modeling, and processing tools. ESE is working through its advisory committee to develop a plan for the next generation data systems. A Data and Information Management Plan will be available within a year. Opportunities exist for members of the Federation to help ESE meet its goals through announcements made in research, education, technology and modeling. To realize the future we must think creatively and work collaboratively.