Presented to: Presented by: Transportation leadership you can trust. The Development of a Method to Estimate Changes in Freight Mode Share TRB Transportation Planning Applications Conference Marty Milkovits Dan Beagan Elaine McKenzie May 9, 2013

Context Objective: Estimate impacts of changes in commodity volumes, shipment origins/destinations, modal shares, and modal energy use and emission rates on energy and GHG emissions Data set: Freight Analysis Framework (FAF) 3.3 commodity flow database Key question for mode share: How much freight could be shifted to use non-trucking modes? 2

Data FAF 3.3 Commodity db: 2007 & Forecasts through 2050 – 49 commodities – 15K+ FAF Region OD interchanges – 3 trade types (import/export/domestic) – ~1M records with non-zero commodity flow Modes – Truck – Rail – Water – Mixed – Pipeline 3

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Modal Share Projection Options Discrete Choice Model – Cannot identify decision maker from aggregate commodity flows Modal Elasticity – No cost or pricing information available Market Segmentation – Identify markets by commodity and distance – Average truck / non-truck shares for each market 5

Market Segmentation Assumption – Non-truck mode shares could improve to average for each distance bin / commodity market Approach – Calculate average mode share for 100 mile bins by commodity – Proportionally increase “underperforming” non- truck flows up to average – Reduce above average truck flows 6

Market Segmentation Strengths – Able to develop and implement on a national scale – Commodity specific – Leverages all data available Limitations – Accessibility assumptions may be unreasonable for some locations 7

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For more information... Project Website nrel.gov/analysis/transportation_futures/ 10

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