The Global Authority on the Environment UNEP / Division of Early Warning and Assessment (DEWA) TOWARDS THE FOURTH GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT OUTLOOK (GEO-4) AND THE BELGRADE ASSESSMENT UNECE/CEP Working Group on Environmental Monitoring and Assessment (WGEMA) held at Palais des Nations, Geneva, June 2006

Division of Early Warning and Assessment Towards GEO-4 in 2007… Building on what has already been achieved, while introducing a strengthened production process…

Division of Early Warning and Assessment GEO-4: the Objective To provide by 2007: a comprehensive, policy-relevant, scientifically-credible and up-to-date assessment; on the state of and outlook for the global environmentalso taking into account the int’l. environmental agenda (e.g., the MDGs) scientifically-credible and up-to-date assessment; on the state of and outlook for the global environment, also taking into account the int’l. environmental agenda (e.g., the MDGs) Part of strengthening the GEO process involves improving the quality, quantity and accessibility to relevant data sets.

Division of Early Warning and Assessment GEO-4: Linkages and Synergies (with other env’l. A&R processes)  The “Belgrade report” for next EfE Ministerial Conference; fourth pan-European SoE; EEA, ECE et al.; Oct ~ “GEO for Europe”..?  OECD’s 2nd Environment Outlook (in 2007); shared database for future-oriented scenarios.  Drawing on results of other IEAs at global or regional level (MA, GIWA et al.)…  Carpathians Environment Outlook (KEO).

Division of Early Warning and Assessment GEO-4: Schedule/Timeframe Initial Design MeetingJune 2004 Initial Design MeetingJune 2004 Planning specific elementsJuly-Oct. ‘04 Planning specific elementsJuly-Oct. ‘04 Regional Expert ConsultationsSept-Oct. ‘04 Regional Expert ConsultationsSept-Oct. ‘04 GEO-4 Design MeetingNov GEO-4 Design MeetingNov Regional Partners’ MeetingsDec Regional Partners’ MeetingsDec Global Consultation on GEO-4Feb Global Consultation on GEO-4Feb Partner agreements/contracts1st quarter Partner agreements/contracts1st quarter 1st Authors’/Production mtg.June st Authors’/Production mtg.June 2005

Division of Early Warning and Assessment GEO-4: Schedule/Timeframe Content development andJuly 2005 to Content development andJuly 2005 to first draft March ‘06 Peer review and regional April-June ‘06 Peer review and regional April-June ‘06  consultations (Europe:on June)  Second draft and peer reviewJuly-Oct. ‘06  Third Production MeetingNov  Final draft preparationNov.-Dec. ‘06  Editing, layout, printingJan.-Aug. ‘07  Launch and distributionSept Assessment and Production work: Assessment and Production work:

Division of Early Warning and Assessment GEO-4: Report Structure/Chapters  Introduction and Policy-makers summary: setting GEO-4 within the context of international environmental governance; introducing the scope & specific focus of the report  Chapter 1: “Environment for Development” what are the major questions answered by GEO(-4), and the evolution of environmental policy; Brundtland to MDGs.  Chapters 2-5: State and trends of the Environment present SoE and trends; integrated analyses of four major themes (air, land, water and biodiversity), plus regional perspectives.  Chapter 6: State and trends ~ regional perspectives Sections on Africa, A&P, Europe, LAC, N. America, West Asia and Polar areas, analysing regional priority issues and themes.

Division of Early Warning and Assessment GEO-4: Report Structure/Chapters  Chapter 7: Interlinkages assess key inter-linkages between biophysical/env’l change, and human activities & drivers, feedbacks (policies/technology) et al.  Chapter 8: Challenges and Opportunities where do we stand in terms of implementing international env’l agenda(e); human vulnerability to change and well-being.  Chapter 9: Outlook towards 2015 and beyond likely future consequences of current policies and actions for the environment and human society; possible/plausible outcomes of current developments & trends; including short-range (2015), medium- (2050) and long-term (2100) scenarios.  Chapter 10: Our Common Future (Policy Options) policy recommendations presented as options for action; overall synthesis of policy-relevant findings and conclusions of GEO-4.

Division of Early Warning and Assessment GEO-4 Data Support: the GEO Data Portal or

Division of Early Warning and Assessment GEO Data Portal Main Functions  Data set search (by geog. area/name, theme, time period etc.).  Data set listing (detailed results of search).  Data display (numeric listings, various graphs and maps ~ ready-made for documents).  Data set download (in various database and cartographic formats).  Meta-data listings.  Links to GEO CCs and data providers (~50).

Division of Early Warning and Assessment Examples of new data sets in Data Portal > Ecological Footprint > Emissions of Particulates Smaller than 2.5 Microns > Global Lakes and Wetlands Database (GLWD-1) - Level 1, 2, 3 > Global Land Cover 2000 (GLC 2000) > Gridded Population of the World: Future Estimates of Population and Population Density > ISO Certifications > Nuclear Power Reactors Operable in electrical output and number > Percentage of Population below US $ 1 per day consumption > Proportion of Population Using Solid Fuels > Protected Areas (Marine, IUCN Categories I-VI and not Classified) total and per cent of total territorial area > Reported Cholera Cases - number of deaths > Road Traffic - goods hauled per km. > WWF Ecoregions - Major Habitat Types (Biomes) with legends

Division of Early Warning and Assessment Examples of updated data sets in Data Portal > Carbon Dioxide Emissions - per Capita and Total (UNFCCC-CDIAC) > Consumption of Ozone-Depleting Substances - chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydro-CFCs and methyl bromide > Emissions of CO, NMVOC, NOX & SO2 - national totals (UNFCCC) > Fish, Crustaceans and Molluscs’ Catch (Marine) > Forests: Ave. annual change, Plantation annual change, Total extent > Forests Certified by FSC-Accredited Certification Bodies > Gridded Population of the World - Population and Pop. density > International Tourism - arrival and departures > Proportion of Land Area Covered by Forest > Population living within 100 kilometers of coast > Trade - percent of GDP

Division of Early Warning and Assessment Data Work for the Belgrade Report  Discussions between EEA and UNEP/DEWA since early 2005 on a role for the latter in supporting the updated TACIS project.  Contract signed in May 2006 for UNEP/DEWA to prepare a “data compendium” as add-on product to the Belgrade Report.  This contract also includes working directly with the EECCA countries to improve data collection capabilities, and development of, and assessment of the relevant indicators. Recent history/series of events: Recent history/series of events:

Division of Early Warning and Assessment Data Work for the Belgrade Report  Collection of relevant national data sets via joint EEA/UNEP consultant and related country visits (July - September).  Organisation of three sub-regional workshops (C. Asia, Caucasus and E. Europe) to train EECCA staff in using the UNECE-produced indicator guide, and help improve the same.  These workshops will take place in Sept-Oct., with results serving as inputs for the related UNECE meeting (Nov. 2006), and final out- puts i.e., the data compendium (mid-2007). Plans for remainder of 2006: Plans for remainder of 2006:

Division of Early Warning and Assessment Annual “GEO Yearbooks” First two volumes for 2003 and 2004/05; third volume for 2006 now published

Division of Early Warning and Assessment MerciSpasebo Thank you