U.S. Housing Outlook Presented By: Stanley F. Duobinis, Ph.D. President Crystal Ball Economics, Inc.

Real GDP Percent Change

U.S. Unemployment Rate Percent

Total Payroll Employment Percent Change

Payroll Employment Percent Change Total Manufacturing

U.S. Manufacturing Employment Millions 3.0 Million jobs lost 2.6 Million jobs lost

U.S. Industrial Output Index: 1996 = 100 Employment (L) Output (R) Millions of Jobs

Manufacturing Output vs. Employment Percent Change – Annual Rate

Manufacturing’s Share of Employment

Total Employment Growth November 2003 to November 2004

Total Employment Growth Pct Chg. Year Ago

Consumer Confidence Index 1985 = 100 Stock Market Tumbles September 11th The War in Iraq

Consumer Confidence Index 1985 = 100 Current Situation Expectations

GDP Inflation Percent Change

Federal Funds Rate Target Percent

Mortgage Rates Percent Fixed Adjustable

Single-family Housing Starts Thousands

Homeownership Rate Percent

Total Employment vs. Total Housing Starts ThousandsPct Chg. Year Ago Employment - R Housing Starts - L

Total Employment Growth November 2003 to November 2004

Single-family Starts Pct Chg U.S. = 6.4

Single-family Starts Pct Chg U.S. =-2.8

Rental Vacancy Rates Percent Buildings with 5 or More Units

Multifamily Housing Starts Thousands

Condo Share Of Multifamily Starts Percent 40.7

Multifamily Housing Starts Pct Chg U.S. =-0.5

Multifamily Housing Starts Pct Chg U.S. =-5.7

Total Housing Starts Thousands

Starts Per Capita 2005 U.S. = 6.6

Manufactured Home Shipments Thousands

Existing Home Sales Thousands

Residential Remodeling Billions of 2000 Dollars

Median New Home Size Square Feet Multifamily Single-family

Residential Fixed Investment Billions of 2000 Dollars

Nonresidential Construction Billions of 2000 Dollars

Nonresidential Construction Billions of 2000 Dollars Lodging Manufacturing Office Other Commercial Other