Russian Oil and Gas Industry: Future under Financial Crisis Elena Telegina Director of the Institute of Geopolitics and Energy Security of Russia Member.

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Presentation transcript:

Russian Oil and Gas Industry: Future under Financial Crisis Elena Telegina Director of the Institute of Geopolitics and Energy Security of Russia Member of the Board, Russian Union of Oil Exporters Doctor of Economics, Professor Nice, November 12-13, 2008

Russian Oil Production, mln t Russian Oil Exports, mln t Forecast Energy Strategy 2020 Forecast Energy Strategy 2020

Russian Oil Production Growth Decline (annual %) Russian Ministry of Energy

Forecast Energy Strategy 2020 Forecast Energy Strategy 2020 Russian Gas Exports, bcm Russian Gas Production, bcm

Gazprom Resources,trln cm Gazprom Production, bcm

Gazprom Production in 2007 decreased to 2003 level, bcm

Gazprom Investment Program to 2010, bln roubles plan Preliminary results All Investment Capital Investment Long-term Investment including credits to affiliates and strategic projects

Russian Gas Production, bcm Total production in 2007 – 653,1 bcm

Russia: Expected gas availability still growing with increasing participation of independent producers

Europe: Natural Gas Imports

Main Transmission projects in Eurasia to

ProjectsParticipantsInvestment required Shtokmanskoye Field (Barents Sea) Gazprom (50%), Total (France), and Norsk Hydro (Norway) Investment estimated between $15 and $25 bln Nord StreamGazprom (51%), BASF (20%), E.OH (20%), Gasunie (9%) 7, 4 bln euro South StreamGazprom, ENIUp to 20 bln euro Yamal-EuropeGazprom14 bln USD East Siberia-Pacific Ocean (VSTO) Transneft12,5 bln USD Sakhalin IIGazprom (50%+1 share), Shell (27,5%), Mitsui (12,5%), Mitsubishi (10%) Up to 10 bln USD Main Oil and Gas Projects

International&Frontier Sector (EV/Boe vs Commodity Price)

Russian Oil and Gas RTS Index (since November 2007) Oil and Gas Gasprom LUKOIL Rosneft

Oil and Gas Industry need large investments to be encouraged by legal/policy framework Majors, NOC’s need sufficient operational cash flow to fund CAPEX commitments Funding Commitments from BANKS are likely to evaporate until 2009, but projects, equipment financing, production (reserve based landing) financing is possible Need to raise capital: Capital Markets: essentially closed From Partners - at a cost Projects Abandonned and Postponed If not properly financed before the funding crunch and If promoter sufficiently financed to resist credit freeze Europe and Russia need a consistent and mutually supportive approach between internal market and external dimension policies. Dialogue at all levels with producers, transit countries, industry, customers is needed - the industry is determined to facilitate the process. Conclusions