The recovery and spending David Murphy Business Editor RTÉ.

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Presentation transcript:

The recovery and spending David Murphy Business Editor RTÉ

Retail sales recovery (Source: CS0, growth in %)

What is next? (Source: Central Bank)

What is behind consumer spending? Employment (Forecast +2.1% in 2015 and 2.2% in 2016) Unemployment (Forecast 9.8% in 2015 and 8.9% in 2016) Expectation of wage increases Expectation of tax cuts

Household debt 2003 – 2015 (Source: Central Bank)

After the crash Mortgage arrears (37,700, 2 years +) Long term unemployed (59% of total) Potholes ahead Interest rates (ECB 0.05%) Corporation tax (Investigation by EC) Exchange rates (Favouring exporters) Euro (Greek drama)

Known unknown - Brexit Renegotiation of UK membership Referendum by 2017 in UK Treaty change would mean Irish referendum Dangers of Brexit: Border on the island New agreement between Ireland and UK Opportunities: companies relocating from UK

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