INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Transportation and Global Emissions to 2030 Dr. Fatih Birol Chief Economist Head, Economic Analysis Division

World Primary Energy Demand Fossil fuels will continue to dominate the global energy mix, while oil remains the leading fuel

Increase in World Primary Energy Demand by Fuel Oil grows most in absolute terms, underpinned by strong demand for transport – especially in developing regions

Increase in World Oil Demand, Most of the increase in oil demand comes from the transport sector – especially in OECD countries OECDNon-OECD mb/d Power generationIndustryTransportOther

Incremental Oil Demand in the Transport Sector, Transport oil demand in Non-OECD countries will increase three times more than in the OECD Total oil demandOil transportNon-OECD oil transport mb/d

Road Vehicle Stock The vehicle stock increases much faster in non-OECD regions, though most vehicles will still be in the OECD in 2030

New Vehicles Fuel Efficiency, 2002 Scope for improvement in new vehicles fuel efficiency is generally greater in developing countries

Environmental Implications

CO 2 emissions, CO 2 emissions will increase fastest in developing countries, overtaking OECD in the 2020s

Growth in World Energy Demand & CO 2 Emissions Average carbon content of primary energy increases slightly through 2030 – in contrast to past trends 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% average annual growth rate Primary energy demandEmissions

CO 2 emissions by sector, CO 2 emissions in power generation and transport are expected to increase the most

Incremental CO 2 emissions in the Transport Sector, Transport accounts for a quarter of total CO2 emissions increase, most of which will come from Non-OECD

Vehicle stock and emissions in China Vehicle stock will quadruple in the next 30 years leading to a threefold increase in CO 2 emissions

World Alternative Policy Scenario

Alternative Policy Scenario Main Policies for Transport Improve vehicle fuel efficiency (e.g. strengthen of US CAFE standards, prolongation of Chinese standards) Increased sales of alternative fuel vehicles and fuels (e.g. biofuels in Europe, Brazil) Mode switching (e.g. increased high speed rail in Japan)

World Transport Oil Demand GDP (billion 2000 US$ using PPPs) mb/d Global oil demand for transport increases very closely in line with GDP

Concluding remarks World energy demand in transport will climb faster than any other end-use sector On current policies, well over 90% of all energy used for transport will be in form of oil products Oil demand increase in transport will be three times higher in developing countries than in the OECD Share of transport in global CO 2 emissions is set to increase New government policies can alter these trends significantly