Progress of CTB Transition Project Team for Land Data Assimilation: Impact on CFS of: A) new land model (Noah LSM) B) new land initial conditions (from.

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Presentation transcript:

Progress of CTB Transition Project Team for Land Data Assimilation: Impact on CFS of: A) new land model (Noah LSM) B) new land initial conditions (from 27-year T126 GLDAS/Noah) 10-year 10-member 6-month T126 CFS runs (GFS-OP3T3,MOM-3) –Four configurations of T126 CFS: A) CFS/OSU/GR2: - OSU LSM, initial land states from GR2 (CONTROL) B) CFS/Noah/GR2: - Noah LSM, initial land states from GR2 C) CFS/Noah/GLDAS: - Noah LSM, initial land states from T126 GLDAS/Noah D) CFS/Noah/GLDAS-Climo: - Noah LSM, initial land states from GLDAS/Noah climo –10 summers:(88, 90, 91, 93, 99, 00, 01, 02, 03, 04) Initial conditions: 00Z daily from Apr 19-23, Apr 29-30, May 1-3 –10 winters:(83, 88, 89, 90, 98, 00, 01, 02, 03, 04) Initial conditions: 00Z daily from Nov 29-30, Dec 1-3, Dec For summers 1999 & 2000 only Ensemble size test (Case B only, 5 added members from April 9-13 I.C.s for total of 15) Lead time test (Cases B & C, 10 added members run from May 30-31, Jun1-3, Jun I.C.s) –Also for test of CFS version (in FY06 CTB, we tested current ops CFS with Noah at T126) For summer 2003 only (to compare with Augustin’s CTB CFS tests) 7 members, 2-month fcsts (same July initial dates as Augustin, for Aug fcst) 10-year 10-member runs just finished on CTB/HAZE on April 8 –Only time thus far for evaluation of 1999 summer ensemble over U.S. for precip –Results of above pilot evaluation of CFS experiments shown in next frame –Plus 3 additional frames comparing GLDAS/Noah and GR2/OSU soil moisture

CFS Test A: Control T126 CFS / OSU / GR2 CFS Test C: T126 CFS / Noah / GLDAS Impact of Upgrading Land Surface Model and Land Surface Initial Conditions in Seasonal 3-Month Forecasts of the Experimental NCEP Climate Forecast System With respect to 10-year climate of given CFS model from 10-member ensemble of CFS forecasts from April initial conditions July 99 Observed Anomaly Black Circles: Worse than Case CWhite Circles: Best or decent CFS Test B: T126 CFS / Noah / GR2 CFS Test A: Control - old OSU LSM - GR2 initial land states CFS Test B: - new Noah LSM - GR2 initial land states CFS Test C: - new Noah LSM GLDAS initial land states CFS Test D: New Noah LSM GLDAS climo initial land states CFS Test D: T126 CFS / Noah /GLDAS-climo CFS Predicted July 1999 Precipitation Anomaly (mm) Most successful configuration

GLDAS/Noah (top) versus GR2/OSU (bottom) 2-meter soil moisture (% volumetric) May 1 st Climatology 01 May 1999 Anomaly Left column: GLDAS/Noah soil moisture climo is generally higher then GR2/OSU Middle column: GLDAS/Noah soil moisture anomaly pattern agrees better than that of GR2/OSU with observed precipitation anomaly (right column: top) Top: observed 90-day Precipitation Anomaly (mm) valid 30 April 99 Bottom: Climatology

GLDAS/Noah (top) versus GR2/OSU (bottom) 2-meter soil moisture (% volumetric) May 1 st Climatology 01 May 1999 Anomaly

Monthly Time Series ( ) of Area-mean Illinois 2-meter Soil Moisture [mm]: Observations (black), GLDAS/Noah (purple), GR2/OSU (green) Total Anomaly Climatology The climatology of GLDAS/Noah soil moisture is higher and closer to the observed climatology than that of GR2/OSU, while the anomlies of all three show generally better agreement (though some exceptions)