Kim Kelly – NWRO GIS Specialist Gene Lonning – NWRO Fuels Specialist March 2009 Northwest Regional Office Risk Assessment

National Risk Assessment Low Resolution – Budget Decisions Examples: EMDS and BIA National RA National Risk Assessment Regional Risk Assessment Local Risk Assessment Risk Assessments Scale & Purpose Regional Risk Assessment Moderate Resolution - Budget Decisions Examples: Florida State RA, NWRO Regional RA Local Reservation Risk Assessment High Resolution - Project Level Fuels Planning Examples: Spokane, CSKT, Warm Springs, CDA

Risk Assessment Inputs Risk Probability ValueHazard Ecosystem Performance

Risk Elements and Datasets

Flame Length Rate of Spread Crown Fire Activity Fire Behavior/ Hazard Fire HazardValues at Risk Fire ProbabilityPerformance Silvis WUI Timber Value Values at Risk All Fire Starts Large Fires > 100ac PS Dryness Level Fire Probability Fire Regime Groups FRCC Performance

Risk Elements & Classification

Fire Behavior Analysis Fire Hazard Fire Behavior Analysis  Landfire Data Not Calibrated  Composite Output Crown Fire, Surface Fire, Flame Length  Extreme Fire Conditions 20ft 25 mph  Fuel Moisture File 1hr, 10hr, 100hr, LH, LW            Fire Behavior Acres

Fire Hazard Map

Fire Probability

Fire Probability Map Fire Occurrence

Fire Probability Map Large Fire + Predictive Services Dryness Levels

Values at Risk – Forest Timber Types Forest Timber Type Map Forest Timber Types

Values at Risk – Silvis WUI Silvis WUI MapSilvis WUI Acres Agency/ReservationAcres Siletz - Grand Ronde, Coquille, Siletz1489 Olympic Peninsula/ Puget Sound / Metlakatla57465 Siletz - Cow Creek75 QIN35576 Ft. Hall Nez Perce Umatilla Coeur d'Alene Warm Springs Yakama Spokane97322 CKST Colville287486

Ecosystem Performance Map Fire Regime Groups

Ecosystem Performance Map FRCC

Overall Risk Map

Overall Risk Acres by Reservation

NWR Pre-Assessment Ranking