THE LOW DOWN ON RISK ASSESSMENT HOW SAFE ARE OUR CITIES?

WHAT’S RISK ASSESSMENT? What would happen if a hazard occurred in my area? Methodology that determines the nature and extent of risk by analyzing potential hazards, and existing conditions of vulnerability that could harm people, livelihoods or the environment.

HOW TO ASSESS RISK Ask: Where will the assessment be conducted? What data is needed? How reliable is it? Where will we get it? How will we analyze the data? How will we present our results? Who receives the results? What are the scheduled milestones of the assessment?

STEP ONE: IDENTIFY THOSE HAZARDS! What hazards put this area at risk? What’s happened in the past that I should be aware of? Type of HazardPast Occurrences Areas AffectedLevel of Threat

POLL: WHAT’S A HAZARD? a)Hurricanes b)Industrial fires c)Tsunamis d)Volcanoes e)Oil spills f)All the above g)None of the above

WHAT’S A HAZARD? a potentially damaging physical event, phenomenon or human activity that may cause the loss of life or injury, property damage, social and economic disruption or environmental degradation. Natural vs. human-made hazards

STEP TWO: ASSESS THOSE HAZARDS! How badly will the area be affected by a hazard? Where will it hit the hardest? How often does it pose a threat? Is the threat predictable?

FACTORS OF ASSESSMENT Origin (Cause) Warning signs Forewarning Force Rate of Onset Frequency Seasonality Zone of Impact

APPROACHES TO ASSESSMENT Quantitative Use of variables, numerical data and mathematical functions Qualitative Ranking is assigned; comparative assessments Deterministic Past events are used to visualize the recurrence of the events Probabilistic Provides an estimate of the probability of a hazard affecting an area or region

STEP THREE: VULNERABILITY AND CAPACITY Who and what will be affected? Will specific groups of people be affected more than others? Which areas are safe? What makes these areas safe? Is the local area prepared for emergencies? Why do disasters happen?

VULNERABILITY A condition determined by physical, social, economic and other factors that increase or decrease the susceptibility of communities, individuals, physical structures or the environment to the impact of the hazard. Vulnerability Assessment

CAPACITY Combination of strengths and resources available within communities, organizations and individuals that can reduce the level of risk. Capacity Assessment

TANGIBLE VS. INTANGIBLE Tangible elements are physical elements, such as people, buildings, equipment and infrastructure, as well as economic elements like income and savings. Intangible elements are social elements such as social ties, cultural heritage and psychological well-being.

STEP FOUR: ESTIMATE RISK Where are the high risk areas? What are the risk issues in these areas? What can be done about these risk issues? What resources are available to address these issues?

STEP FIVE: EVALUATE RISK What are the priority risk issues? What are the costs and benefits of addressing the different issues? Do these risk solutions contribute to achieving local development goals? Risks are racked according to: Significance Existence and feasibility of reduction solutions Cost-effectiveness of reduction solutions Availability of funds