TRB Policy Study- State of Practice in Metropolitan Area Travel Forecasting Presented To AMPO Travel Model Working Group By Jon Williams March 20, 2006

Agenda Study Process –Study sponsors –Scope of work –Committee and its operations Consultant work- BMI / SG –Web-based survey –Interviews –Other work

Sponsors: Federal Highway Administration Federal Transit Administration USDOT- Office of the Secretary

Study Objectives 1.Gather information and determine the state of practice for metropolitan area travel demand modeling by metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) and state departments of transportation (DOTs). 2.Identify actions needed to ensure that the appropriate technical processes are being used for travel modeling

Study Objectives (Specifically) Are there technical shortcomings in the models for their intended uses, such as technical analysis of the Transportation Improvement Program and the Long-Range Plan, emissions analyses, FTA New Starts analyses, and NEPA analyses? Identify actions needed to ensure that the appropriate technical processes are being used for travel modeling.

Committee- 13 Members Chair- Marty Wachs (Rand) MPO- Mike Morris; Chuck Purvis; Guy Rousseau; Dick Walker; Ron Eash State- Laura Cove; Mary Lynn Tischer Academic- George Dresser; Bob Johnston; Eric Miller Other- Tom Dean; Dick Pratt

Committee Process Independent, balanced, free of political and commercial interests or influence Meet 4 times (last meeting May 19-20, ‘06) Gather and consider information Hire consultant, BMI-SG, for data collection and analysis Draft final report- due for review in July Pre-pub in fall 2006

Invited to Present Information Jan 6 – 7, 2005 Sponsors EPA AMPO AASHTO TRB Committees Environmental Defense TRB staff

Invited to Present Information Sept 9, 2005 Joint meeting with AMPO Travel Model Working Group Presentation of Web-based Survey Results Firing Line MPO comments Open discussion

Invited to Present Information Jan 20, 2006 FHWA (Transims) FTA (New Starts analyses) FHWA (Freight and commercial travel forecasting)

MPOs: 50,000 – 200,000

MPOs: 200,000 – 1 million

MPOs: > 1 million

Surveys Sent and Responses Received (by MPO size) MPO Classification Surveys Sent Surveys Returned Percent Returned Small (Population < 200k) % Medium (Population >200k<1M ) % Large Population >1M % Total %

MPOs Providing Responses

Model Characteristics Majority of MPOs use 4-step process Few MPOs use tour-based methods Many MPOs omit mode choice Some MPOs do no travel forecasting

Trip Distribution Gravity Model dominant methodology –Distributes person trips Impedance –Mostly based on travel time over highway network. –Significant portion of large MPOs use function combining highway and transit times or other factors About 1/2 of reporting MPOs apply some type of adjustment factors –“K” factors –Time penalties

Are you working toward any activity or tour-based approaches to replace the existing trip distribution model? 21% 43% 25% 22%Small Medium Large All MPO Size Percent of MPOs

U1.What are the best features of your model? 32% of all MPOs stated that the best feature was ease of use/flexibility 22% said the best feature was that the model was well calibrated and validated

U2.Which features are most in need of improvement? 27% of all MPOs stated that land use forecasting was the feature of their model that was most in need of improvement This is followed by the detail and quality of the mode choice model (21%).

BMI-SG Site Visits/Interviews Obtain additional information from sample of MPOs In-depth interviews of 11 MPOs / DOTs –Six agencies were visited –Five agencies completed the interview via phone

Site Visit Topics of Discussion Form and status of current models Validation Sensitivity Analysis Data Cleaning Post Processing Staffing and Budget Barriers to Improvement Perceived Inadequacies

BMI-SG Additional Work Data cleaning for web-based survey updated tables, figures, and text for draft report of 9/1/2005. Produce context-related cross-tabs and analysis from web-based and in-depth surveys, considering, e.g. a.AQ conformity status b.New starts c.Corridor studies d.High growth e.State vs. MPO responsibility f.Pricing / tolls g.Freight h.Congestion / ITS

BMI-SG Additional Work Produce reports for the committee based on literature review; the web-based survey; site visits and phone interviews

Committee’s Final Report Due in Fall 2006 Consultant Report on web- based survey is at-