Almond Presentation January 2013 Presented by - Bill Morecraft General Manager Blue Diamond Almonds Global Ingredients Division
Almond Overview Growth Drivers and Historical Context Current Year Overview Looking Ahead
The Global Middle Class
The Global Middle Class is Evolving The middle class is not easily defined “Purchasing Power Parity” (PPP) Developing Economies = US $10,000 Established Economies = US $45,000 - $75,000 We have seen very diverse results in middle class growth when looking at developing economies versus economies with an established middle class Two trends haven driven almond industry growth in recent years Growing Middle Class Growth in Healthy Eating Habits Source: Euromonitor, “The Global Middle Class Sees Mixed Fortunes, October
Rapidly Growing Middle Class in World’s Two Largest Countries Number of Households (millions)
Almond Shipments to China Have Grown Nearly 1000% Millions Pounds
Almond Shipments to India Have Grown 145% Millions Pounds
2006 v 2011 Percent of Households With PPP of US $45,000 to US $75, v 2011
Evolving Eating Habits Busier Lifestyles Shorter lunch breaks / working during lunch Longer working hours Longer commutes Working Women More women in workforce and less time cooking Demand for convenience Healthy solutions Snacking Fills the Mealtime Gaps Convenience / portability Ability to eat on-the-go Increase in healthy offerings, e.g. 100 calorie pack Healthy Lifestyles Desire to combine health & convenience Lower sodium, less fat, natural ingredients, functional ingredients Helps fuel demand for Western products in emerging markets Source: Euromonitor, “Home Cooking & Eating Habits, A Global Analysis. April
Almond Industry Shipments 5-year History Millions / lbs. 18% 10% 6% 13% 14% 78% Growth Between
Export Demand Comparisons Millions / lbs. Source: Almond Board of California Position Reports. Asia does not include Australia or New Zealand. Middle East does not include Africa. Europe is inclusive of Western & Eastern Europe.
Demand Share Comparisons
Current Crop Year Overview
YTD December- Total Industry Shipments -.9% 155.8mm 255.2m 141.5m 267.7mm
2012 California Almond Crop Pounds / Billions
Short Term Outlook Growth in Shipments vs Supply Increase
Yield Trend
Trended Crop Projections
Key Factors for Future Global demand can continue to grow, driven by: Middle class growth in emerging economies Changing eating habits in mature economies Global almond production will grow slower in next 2-3 years, than in past decade Almond pricing will reflect supply tightness for the near future
Questions?