P5 interim report Bill Carithers Sept 11, 2006

Abe couldn’t make it today Special Workshop on Tracking September 11th Honoring Abe Seiden's 60th birthday …but he has a good excuse

Charge  Detailed roadmap for roughly 10 years  Particular focus on next 5 years  Lay out most compelling science  Specific prioritization of the major elements  Mindful of international context  Fit within agency-provided budget envelope Full charge at

Membership list Abe Seiden (UCSC) Chair Hiroaki Aihara (University of Tokyo) Andy Albrecht (UCDavis) Jim Alexander (Cornell) Daniela Bortoletto ( Purdue) Claudio Campagnari (UCSB) Marcela Carena (FNAL) William Carithers (LBNL) Dan Green (FNAL) JoAnne Hewett (SLAC) Boris Kayser (FNAL) Karl Jakobs (University of Freiburg) Ann Nelson (U. of Washington) Harrison Prosper (Florida State U.) Tor Raubenheimer (SLAC) Steve Ritz (NASA) Michael Schmidt (Yale) Mel Shochet (U. of Chicago) (Ex-Officio) Harry Weerts (ANL) Stanley Wojcicki (Stanford U.)

Context Dark Energy Task Force Dark Energy Task Force

Process: gathering input  March (DC) Budgets and outlook from funding agencies  April (FNAL) Mostly neutrinos and Dark matter  April 20-21(SLAC) ILC, Dark energy (incl DETF), FY08 running of B-factory

Process: making the roadmap  P5 closed meeting June at SLAC  Status report to HEPAP July 6  P5 closed meeting August at FNAL  Report to HEPAP October 12 Recall that P5 advises DOE, NSF EPP

Compelling science opportunities  Energy frontier  Dark matter  Dark energy  Neutrinos

Energy frontier: Tevatron  LHC  ILC  Higgs(es)?  Supersymmetry?  Extra dimensions?  Really weird stuff?????

Dark matter  Direct detection  Cryogenic crystals  Liquid noble gases  Accelerator candidates  LSP  Indirect detection (annihilation)  IceCube, GLAST, ACT  Astrophysical measurements  Don’t forget axions

Dark energy science   Equation of state: w = w 0 + (1-a)w a  For cosmological constant, w = -1  Is GR correct?

Dark energy techniques  Luminosity distances (supernovae)  Angular diameter distances (CMB, BAO, weak lensing)  Growth of structure (clusters, weak lensing)  DETF emphasized value of combination of techniques

DETF categories  Stage I: previous studies  Stage II: current studies  (SNLS, Essence, HST,…)  Stage III: new short-term, modest experiments  Stage IV: longer-term, more ambitious experiments  Space-based missions, large survey telescopes

Neutrinos  How big is  13 ?  What is the mass hierarchy?  Do neutrinos violate CP?  Are neutrinos their own antiparticles?  Are there sterile neutrinos?

Planning guidelines--8 principles 1. The LHC is our most important near-term project. Level of support for LHC should not be allowed to erode from inflation. 2. ILC is our highest priority for future investment. Vigorous US participation in international R&D and preparatory work for US bid-to-host are required 3. Investment in a phased program to study dark matter, dark energy, and neutrino interactions is essential for answering some of the most interesting science questions before us.

Planning guidelines 4. In cases where new techniques are under development, our recommendations include rough dates for review. 5. For planning, we arrived at a budget split for new investments of 60% in the ILC and 40% for other elements of a balanced program. 6. To allow maximum flexibility for new investment to be informed by new results, the projects recommended for a construction start in dark matter, dark energy and neutrino science should complete construction by approximately the end of 2012.

Planning guidelines 7. Recommendations for construction starts on the longer-term roadmap should be made around the end of the decade by a new P5 after a review of LHC (and other) results. The LHC upgrade decision should also be made at about this time, although we have included these upgrade funds in our planning process. 8. We have made our recommendations within a base funding plan provided by the agencies. With additional funds, significant additional discovery physics, more rapid progress on dark energy and a more aggressive schedule for ILC R&D would be possible.

Interim (FY2008) Roadmap recommendations  We recommend that the B-factory running continue in FY08, allowing completion of the BaBar physics data collection at close to 1000 fb -1 of integrated luminosity.  We have planned for running the Tevatron and the Fermilab neutrino program as presently foreseen.  We recommend strongly that FY08 see continued improvement in support for the University program.

Interim FY08 recommendations for new projects 1. We recommend a strongly supported program at the energy frontier through physics at the LHC and vigorous R&D for an ILC. We note that FY08 will likely be the first year of significant data collection at the LHC and US participants should be supported to engage in this first physics. We encourage international coordination on the ILC R&D to maximize progress toward the realization of this accelerator.

Interim recommendations-- new construction 2. We recommend the start of construction on three smaller projects that have significant potential for important physics. a) The Dark Energy Survey b) The next phase (25 kg) of the Cryogenic Dark Matter Search c) The Daya Bay reactor anti-neutrino experiment, contingent on a satisfactory review of the costs, construction plan, technique, and ability to control systematic errors to the required level

Interim recommendations-- new construction 3. We recommend the start of construction on the No a neutrino oscillation experiment. This experiment has a key scientific goal of measuring the neutrino mass hierarchy, thus making it complementary to other world-wide experiments.

Dark Energy findings  Numerous studies have identified a Large Survey Telescope and a Dark Energy Space Mission as providing large steps forward in the study of dark energy, dark matter, and general relativity.  The particle physics community has been particularly active in developing candidates for each of these projects  LSST, with NSF as the lead agency and DOE providing substantial resources as the partner agency  SNAP, with DOE as the lead agency with potential partners of either an international collaboration (which might include a foreign launch), or NASA, or perhaps both  We strongly re-affirm the compelling case for a DETF Stage IV dark energy experiment.

Interim recommendations-- Dark energy We recommend that both LSST and SNAP be supported to bring these projects to the “Preliminary Design Review Stage” in the case of NSF and LSST, “CD2 Stage “ for the DOE parts of LSST, and “CD2 Stage” in the case of DOE and SNAP over the next two to three years(starting in FY07). This will allow sharpening of the cost estimates, further interagency planning, further development of the collaborations, and continued work on the science potential as discussed in the DETF report.

Possible additional funds  We place our highest priority on the new projects outlined above, in line with the EPP2010 vision, and based on the base line budget provided by the agencies.  Should additional funds be available in FY08 (compared to the base), our first priority among several important uses for it would be to enable an even more ambitious start on ILC R&D

Full roadmap  The full report will include recommendations and decision points on other projects including: 1. LHC upgrade construction 2. Large Dark Matter experiment 3. Large neutrino-less double beta decay experiment 4. Stage IV Dark Energy experiments 5. DUSEL, an NSF MREFC initiative There are many smaller experiments which don’t appear We value them, discussed some, but set a size/maturity threshold for inclusion in the roadmap

Questions?

Additional slides

Nova mass hierarchy

Mass hierarchy

Dark Energy Survey  4 m CTIO Blanco telescope  3 square degree, 520 megapixel camera using LBNL CCD’s, 4-band photometry  Measurements include  Type Ia supernovae  Weak lensing  Galaxy cluster  Redshift follow-up for SPT S-Z survey

Nusag report WMAP3 + LSS + SN Excluded 95% cl CUORE 3  discovery 2015 EXO200 3  discovery 2010 Majorana 3  discovery Optimistic 1 tonne detector Wildly optimistic 10 tonne EXO

Funding profile assumptions Plus additional funds from closing of PEP-II and Tevatron