Electricity Technology in a Carbon-Constrained Future NARUC Annual Meeting November 14, 2007 Hank Courtright Senior Vice President.

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Electricity Technology in a Carbon-Constrained Future

Presentation transcript:

Electricity Technology in a Carbon-Constrained Future NARUC Annual Meeting November 14, 2007 Hank Courtright Senior Vice President

2 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. EIA Base Case 2007 CO 2 Reductions … Technical Potential* TechnologyEIA 2007 ReferenceTarget EfficiencyLoad Growth ~ +1.5%/yrLoad Growth ~ +1.1%/yr Renewables30 GWe by GWe by 2030 Nuclear Generation12.5 GWe by GWe by 2030 Advanced Coal Generation No Existing Plant Upgrades 40% New Plant Efficiency by 2020– GWe Plant Upgrades 46% New Plant Efficiency by 2020; 49% in 2030 CCSNoneWidely Deployed After 2020 PHEVNone 10% of New Vehicles by 2017; +2%/yr Thereafter DER< 0.1% of Base Load in 20305% of Base Load in 2030 * Achieving all targets is very aggressive, but potentially feasible.

3 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. TechnologyEPRI Analysis TargetEfficiency Reduced Load Growth by ~30% Renewables 70 GWe by 2030 (2X EIA projection) Nuclear Generation 64 GWe by 2030 (~ 50 Plants > EIA) Advanced Coal Generation Existing Plant Efficiency Upgrades New Plant Efficiency 46% by 2020; 49% in 2030 Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) All Coal Plants after 2020 Capture 90% of CO 2 Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) ~1/3 of New Vehicle Sales in 2030 Distributed Energy Resources (DER) 5% of Load “off-grid” in 2030 EPRI “PRISM” - CO 2 Reductions

4 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Prism electric sector CO 2 emission profile Assumed Economy-Wide CO 2 Constraint PRISM profile nearly matches economically optimal amount of CO 2 electric sector reductions required if economy-wide emissions are held flat from , then decline at 3%/year thereafter Year

5 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Electricity Technology Scenarios Full PortfolioLimited Portfolio Supply-Side Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) AvailableUnavailable New Nuclear Production Can Expand Existing Production Levels ~100 GW RenewablesCosts DeclineCosts Decline Slower New Coal and GasImprovements Demand-Side Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) AvailableUnavailable End-Use Efficiency Accelerated Improvements Improvements

6 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. U.S. Electric Generation - Full Portfolio Coal w/CCS Gas w/CCSNuclear Hydro Wind SolarOil Demand Reduction Demand with No Policy Biomass Full Portfolio (economic allocation) Trillion kWh per Year Coal Coal with CCS Gas Nuclear Hydro Gas and non-captured coal are the only supply options paying a CO 2 cost The vast majority of electricity supply is CO 2 -free Wind Public Policy (RPS) can modify this economic allocation

7 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. U.S. Electric Generation – Limited Portfolio Coal w/CCS Gas w/CCSNuclear Hydro Wind SolarOil Demand Reduction Demand with No Policy Biomass Trillion kWh per Year Limited Portfolio (economic allocation) Coal Gas Nuclear Gas (with half the CO 2 of coal) pays a significant CO 2 cost With a less de-carbonized supply, electricity load must decline to meet the CO 2 emissions target Wind Hydro Biomass

8 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Full Limited $/ton CO 2 * *Real (inflation-adjusted) 2000$ CO 2 Emission Cost – Economy Wide Year With a de-carbonized electricity supply, other parts of the economy pay a CO 2 cost… not the electricity sector

9 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Full Limited $/ton CO 2 * *Real (inflation-adjusted) 2000$ CO 2 Emission Cost – Economy Wide Year With a less de-carbonized supply, the electricity sector pays a significant CO 2 cost…along with other sectors

10 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Wholesale Electricity Price Full Limited $/MWh* Index Relative to Year 2000 *Real (inflation-adjusted) 2000$ Year In the Full Portfolio the price of electricity has a low CO 2 cost component and increases less

11 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Wholesale Electricity Price Full Limited $/MWh* Index Relative to Year 2000 *Real (inflation-adjusted) 2000$ Year In the Limited Portfolio the price of electricity has a higher CO 2 cost component and increases substantially

12 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Full Portfolio Trillion kWh per Year Trillion kWh per Year Limited Portfolio +260%+45% Increase in Real Electricity Prices…2000 to 2050 Coal w/CCS Gas w/CCSNuclear Hydro Wind SolarOil Demand Reduction Demand with No Policy Biomass Both Scenarios meet the same economy-wide CO 2 Cap* *Economy-wide CO 2 emissions capped at 2010 levels until 2020 and then reduced at 3%/yr

13 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Achieving the Full Portfolio 1.Smart grids and communications infrastructures to enable end- use efficiency and demand response, distributed generation, and PHEVs. 2.A grid infrastructure with the capacity and reliability to operate with 20-30% intermittent renewables in specific regions. 3.Significant expansion of nuclear energy enabled by continued safe and economic operation of existing nuclear fleet; and a viable strategy for managing spent fuel. 4.Commercial-scale coal-based generation units operating with 90+% CO 2 capture and storage in a variety of geologies. ALL of the following technology advancements will be needed in order to have a full portfolio of technologies available for reducing CO 2 emissions over the coming decades: