2015: A national election Nothing is certain Every 1% counts Does Tory vote matter? And the election just got more confused Rob Hayward 19 th January 2015 With thanks to…

What’s up? General Locals Most of England outside London No Wales nor Scotland nor NI Mets 36 Unitaries 49 Districts194 Mayors 5

Timetable Dec 19 th Election expenses commenced Mar 13 th -University vacations Apr 13 th Mar 30 th Parliament dissolved Apr 3 rd -6 th Easter Apr 9 th Election nominations close Apr 20 th Final electoral registration Apr 22 nd ?Postal votes sent out? May 7 th Polling Day Declarations: Sunderland, Scotland, Wales, NI Total votes? Winter NHS Council Cuts March 18 th Budget Day Debates? Apr 14 th Inflation Apr 17 th Employment Apr 23 rd PSBR Apr 28 th Q1 GDP est. ProcessCampaign

Individual Electoral Registration ONS publish late-February Down by 1-2%

Turnout (UK) 65%?

Inside the House UKIP 2 Respect1

Result 2010 by percentage - UK (GB: 37%)

Retiring MPs/Candidates (UK) Retiring MPs Con1:9 Lab1:9 LD1:5 Candidates In 2010: candidates in total UKIP Green

GB Polling post 2010 (1)

Polling post 2010 (2)

Proportion top 2 / leading party - UK

Voters: ‘Moved house’ or ‘On Holiday’? (May-Oct 14)

‘Moved house’ or ‘On Holiday’? (2) ComRes, 14 th -16 th January % 64% 46% 56% Definitely decided how I will vote in the General Election

‘Moved house’ or ‘On Holiday’? (3) Will others go? Have Tories learnt to squeeze? Labour and WWC Where it matters

Campaign overstretch or confusion 2010 Con/Lab or Con/LD. Very little 4 th party distraction Lab (106 or 68)+ Scotland? 80+Con 50+LD 20+UKIP 10Grn 25/30+SNP Locals Bradford

Changing the terrain Uniform National Swing? Not even in England 7-8 seats change hands (Con and Lab) per 1% party shift on UNS ‘Regional’ variationDefinitely

Target seats Labour largest partyLabour majorityConservative majority 19. Brighton Pavilion64. Vale of Glamorgan17. Sutton & Cheam 20. Plymouth Sutton65. Argyll & Bute18. Halifax 21. Dewsbury66. Dumfriesshire19. Newcastle-under-Lyme 22. Warrington S67. Carmarthen E20. Middlesbrough S 23. Brent Central68. Norwich N21. Wakefield 24. Bedford (1,353; 3%)69. High Peak (4,677; 9.3%)22. St Ives (1,719; 3.7%) 25. Brighton Kempton70. Milton Keynes S23. Plymouth Moor View 26. Pudsey71. Rossendale24. Gedling 27. Corby72. Cleethorpes25. Eltham 28. Brentford & Isleworth73. NE Somerset26. Walsall S 29. Hove74. Great Yarmouth27. Nottingham S

Target seats (North) North East: Stockton S Middlesbrough S Yorks & Humberside: Bradford E Dewsbury Pudsey Keighley Elmet & Rothwell G Grimsby + Morley & Outwood Halifax Wakefield North West: Lancaster & Fleetwood Morecombe & Lunesdale Carlisle Weaver Vale Warrington S Manchester Withington Burnley Bury N Blackpool N Wirral W Pendle Bolton W Wirral S Key: Lab target for largest party Labour target for maj Con target for maj

Target seats (Midlands) East Mids: Sherwood Broxtowe Amber Valley Lincoln Corby* Northampton N Erewash Loughborough High Peak Derby N Boston & Skegness West Mids: N Warwickshire Wolverhampton SW Halesowen & Rowley Regis Nuneaton Worcester Cannock Chase Warwick & Leamington Birmingham Yardley Solihull Dudley N + Telford Walsall N Birmingham Edgbaston Newcastle Under Lyme

Target seats (South) South East Brighton Pavilion Brighton Kemptown Hove Hastings & Rye Southampton Itchen Thanet S Thanet N Sittingbourne Worthing E Aylesbury Eastleigh + Portsmouth S + South West: Stroud Plymouth Sutton Gloucester Kingswood Swindon S Mid Dorset & N Poole Wells St Austell & Newquay Somerton & Frome St Ives Forest of Dean

Target seats (South) Eastern Thurrock+ Norwich S Waveney Bedford Ipswich Stevenage Watford Norwich N Great Yarmouth + London Hendon Brent C Brentford & Isleworth Enfield N Croydon C Harrow E Ealing C Hampstead & Kilburn Sutton & Cheam

Target seats (Nations) Wales Cardiff N Arfon Carmarthen W & S Pembs Vale of Glamorgan Carmarthen E & Dinefwr Scotland: Dundee East E Dumbarton Edinburgh W Argyll & Bute Dumfriesshire

Scotland (1) LD overpolled in 2005 Lab overpolled in 2010 SeatsVote % Change in vote % Lab4142%+2.5 LD1119%-3.7 SNP620%+2.3 Con117%+0.9

Scotland (2) Post-referendum local by-elections (mostly rural): party vote share changes v * - did not stand in 2012

Lib Dems 57 seats Scotland11 seats South West15 seats (University)12 seats* (approx assessment. NB overlap with categories above) Will lose virtually half of Parliamentary Party First 18 split:9 Lab, 9 Tory Thereafter (8):mostly SNP and Tory

‘Minor’ Party Impact 100 seatsUKIP vote markedly bigger than majority (12.5%, 5,500-6,500 votes) 25 seatsGreen vote markedly bigger than majority (5%, 2,000-3,000 votes)

Polls & Results (1) within margin of error but….? 2014 Euro (6 polls) ActualConLabLDUKIPGrn Correct01310 Understate -1% more %40015 Overstate +1% more%14241 Average ‘miss’-2.2%+2%+0.5%+3%-1.7%

Polls & Results (2) 2014 By-elections (5 seats 10 polls) ConLabLDUKIPGreen Correct01301* Understate -1%21102* - more %6004-* Overstate +1%10411* + more%1825-* Average ‘miss’-1.8%+3.7%+0.8%-1.1%-1.5%

Results & polls (3) 2014 local elections - Rallings & Thrasher National Equivalent Vote Actual ConLabLDUKIP Polls All ‘actuals’ are rounded *represents inadequate data, figure in red is presumed calculation + Figures for 2014 locals polls are based on Wikipedia ‘Average ‘miss’ is arrived at by taking ‘actual ‘miss’, totalling the misses, and then dividing by number of samples

Every 1% counts (Turnout, IER, polls, incumbency, regions) 2015: THE SEQUEL?