A data-model comparison study of the Arctic Ocean's response to atmospheric mode of variability Bruno Tremblay Robert Newton Peter Schlosser Lamont Doherty.

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Presentation transcript:

A data-model comparison study of the Arctic Ocean's response to atmospheric mode of variability Bruno Tremblay Robert Newton Peter Schlosser Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University Acknowledgment: NSF, A. Weaver – M Eby

Introduction Summer and winter changes in the thermocline Hypothesized that these changes may also be present on longer time scale Hunkins and Whiteheads tank experiments read that paper Tide gauge (PSMSL) data Tide gauge locations Do they vary together or not?

Introduction continued TG time serie + regime shift of the mid 70's; show how it is present in TG and SLP time series Local to the chukchi sea or arctic wide? Show how TG correlates with slp, vorticity... Is it an inverted barometer effect or a large- scale dynamic effect? Subtract the inverse barometer effect

Introduction continued Uvic-ESCM ocean model 1.8 x 3.6 x 19level Disclaimer, problem with mean climate Ice area and volume export from Uvic (validation) Liquid fresh water outflux, and how it correlated with slp, and vorticity Total fresh water content of Arctic Ocean, how it correlates with vorticity input and arctic regimes How Total FW content correlated with FW flux

Introduction continued Aagaard and Caarmaack: Ice export : 2790 km3/year Water export : 1160 km/year Meredith et al: water export might be much larger.

Introduction continued

Tank experiment

Tidal gauge station (PSMSL)

SSH – Inverse barometer effect Jan 1, 1949

Sea surface height anomaly (norm)

Sea surface height anomaly

TG data and Atm indices

March SIC and thicknes

Fram Ice Area Flux

Fram Ice Area Flux – NAO

Fram Ice Volume Flux

Fram Ice Volume Flux – NAO

Regime shift – mid 70's Hilmer and Jung

SLG – NAO

EOF1 – FM SLP

FW content -- SLP

FW content – NAO

FW flux – SLP

FW flux – FW content

Conclusions Ice export goes with NAO (recently) Water export goes with NAO as well Water export is not linked with FW content of Arctic FW content of arctic goes with SLP or vorticity presumably due to increase ice formation during lower pressure in arctic Expect a more complicated link between FW content and export when the FW export is more in line with real thing

Conclusions Longer term FW content changes are larger than seasonal changes They account for x km3/year compared with y km3 /year for ice export

Future work Experiment with the wind forcing to get the proper surface water export Dye river and other source of fresh water to break it into component