Climate Change: Sea Level Rise Associate Scientist, Global Monitoring Div. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin. and Environmental Science & Statistics Professor University of Colorado Intergovt. Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Member, 2007 Working Group I, The Science Basis Reviewer: IPCC 2013/2014 WGI & WGIII reports

CO 2 air concentrations over last 60 years, parts per million

CO 2 and Methane (CH 4 ) concentrations: past 400,000 years

Fossil Fuel Carbon Emissions to the Atmosphere ( IPCC )

Global Warming → Climate Change → Sea Level Rise (SLR) Some “bottom line” SLR bullets: *SLR likely to displace 5 to 12 million people by 2050 *60 to 240 million, perhaps more, displaced by 2100 *9% of Florida lost with 1-meter sea level rise When might 1-meter (3’ 4”) SLR occur??

The BIG Three *Heating & Expansion of Oceans is, now, causing about one-half (~½) of SLR per year *Glacier & Arctic Region melt: ~1/4 th of SLR per year * Greenland ~ * Greenland & Antarctic Melt : ~1/5 th of SLR per year Greenland ice melt is 480% greater than in early 1990s Key Study: Science, 30 Nov 2012, pg. 1138

SLR: How much? How soon? - Slow, Insidious** impact Mean Global Sea Level Rise (SLR), ft. & in. Year Best Estimate ” - measured; rapid rate ’ 1” ’ 9” ≈ equal to ½ meter ’ 4” ≈ equal to 1 meter Range of 2100 Global Mean SLR: 2’ to 4’ __________________ **eg: 1’ SLR “payback to us” even if coal & oil emissions stop now!

Global Warming → Climate Change → Sea Level Rise (SLR) Some “bottom line” bullets: if 1-meter SLR by 2100 *SLR likely to displace 5 to 12 million people by 2050 *60 to 240 million people may be displaced by 2100 About 1 million homes lost in Florida - NOT counting the 65% of Florida’s <1m-above-sea-level land set for development -- Insurance Industry Estimate Needed: a present-day SLR impact; not just 2050/2100 NYC Case Study: Super-storm Sandy

Super-storm Sandy

1’ water depth due to human-caused SLR (as of 2012)

New York City (NYC) Case Study Super-storm Sandy: US Climate Change Teaching Moment Sea Level Rise: 1’ of the NYC 11’ surge 11’ surge is nearly double previous 300 yr. record surge 1 meter By 2100, NYC’s SLR will be more than 1 meter - greater than the 2100 global mean SLR of 2’ to 4’ 3’ to 5’ SLR for NYC by 2100

Regional Sea Level Rise: mean vs 1900, IPCC Purple = 4’ Dark Brown = 3.5’ Red = 3’ Yellow = 2’

Super-storm Sandy and Human-caused Climate Change 80-90% of 1’ NYC SLR (since 1900) is due to we humans Part of 5°F above mean ocean Temp in Sandy-birth-area due to us Energy uptake along warmer ocean waters path YES, there was a human contribution to the damage caused by super-storm Sandy! Impossible to say how much. Some Solutions after Break

Solutions: Government Driven Renewable Energy: Govt. credits/subsidies needed - Renewables subsidy 600 B-$s/yr Wind: cost less than coal ; “30-coal-plant” Chinese farm Solar: rapid growth ; Germany/European Union; China Geothermal/Hydro/Tidal/other ; underutilized

Solutions in Private Sector; Insurance-Background Insurance Industry: largest; 7% of Global Economy “Weather catastrophe” payouts up 400% in 2 decades ~40% of total payout funds Munich Reinsurance : largest insurer of Insurance Co.s concluded - in there is: “insurance risk from human-caused climate change” Those that must know, do know

Climate Change activities, 52 countries; UC-Berkeley Study Insurance Ind. Climate Change funds (since 70s): > $95,000,000,000

Solutions: Insurance Industry ($s since 1970s)* Climate Change Mitigation Investmt., 24 Billion $s Public Awareness & Public Policy Initiatives, 31 Billion $s Financing Client Loss Prevention, Adaptation and Climate Change Mitigation Projects, 57 Billion $$s - e.g., forest restoration in catastrophe-prone areas Climate Science: IPCC/Insurer Modeling, 21 Billion $s __________ * The Greening of Insurance, Science Dec ,

Mangrove Reforestation, Japanese Insurance Co.: increased resilience to storm damages - carbon sequestration - company is carbon neutral since 2008

Solutions: biggest Personal Choice impact Hybrid Cars with electric plug-in* - Ford C-Max Energie: ~$28,000 - Toyota Prius: ~$28,000 - Chevy Volt: ~$27,000 Electric Cars * - Ford Focus E: ~$30,000 - Nissan Leaf: ~$29,000 *Fed rebates applied and 2013 $ amounts

Extra Slides: the following two slides may be useful background material for presenters and museum educators