Agricultural and environmental indicators and models por Rubén De la Sierra Rosario Peyrot

Objective To generate agro-environmental indicators to assess the state of the agriculture and environment in the Country, analyze its evolution, know strengths and weaknesses, develop scenarios, and propose alternative solutions for the several transitions that underway in Mexico Once these indicators help understand the meaning of economic performance, standards of living, and short and long term implications, they can help outline strategies that can use present conditions to generate resources and wealth at the least cost possible.

Issues to address Why are agricultural and environmental performance following its current path? Where are current policy, decisions, and strategy leading us? How can future prospects be improved? The key to achieving success is the ability to develop and sustain critical resources and capabilities, leveraging what we have today to grow more of what we will need tomorrow

Definitions It is critical not to confuse the meaning of various figures used to measure, asses, and understand conditions under which a very complex system, such as the agro-environmental one, operates. For this reason, it is important to start with term definitions useful to express different quantities. The main terms that must be defined and understood are: Variable Indicator Lead indicator Lag indicator Index Model Agro-environmental concept

Agro-environmental Concept [1 ][1 ] Is the dynamic interaction between agriculture and the environment. This relationship is considered highly complex, since it includes process involved with economic activities, agricultural and livestock services, including externalities (positive or negative) present in the system. [1][1] Towards agri-environmental indicators. European Environment Agency

INDICATORS In the case of Mexico it is imperative to develop dynamic indicators that describe transition processes underway in several sectors of the Country. It is not enough to gather data in the form of statistics or parameters without having them provide a more complete idea on the dynamics of the system as a whole. With the development and use of quality indicators one can arrive to an understanding of: The difference between variables, indices, indicators and models The concepts of threshold, externality, opportunity cost, and re- conversion, among others Contextual, reference, and baseline information Environmental, financial, social, demographic, cultural, health and schooling indicators in an agro-environmental context Aggregation and dis-aggregation of data and indicators, in terms of space and time

CONDITIONS THAT MUST BE COSIDERED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AGRO-ENVIRONMENTAL INDICATORS Indicators must describe: Proximal and tangible manifestations, as well as, distal and intangible causes that give rise to current conditions

One of the main goals is that when indicators are assessed and processed they become able to provide answer issues such as: If the situation continues as is then, How long will it last? What is the weakest link/component in the system? What alternatives exist to avoid decadence? If decadence is unavoidable, then: What is the best way to use resources and stretch the window of opportunity? Is the system in a homeostatic balance? What prevents the system from achieving an stable balance? What are the causes of uncertainty? At what cost could the region be recovered or reconverted? What is needed to prevent adverse situations?

ACTIVITIES TO BE CONDUCTED To understand the following items, Economic forces Long and short term environmental processes Shift in expectations from stakeholders Sustainable agricultural productive capacity Global and local change Cycles and decay one must conduct the following actions:

1.Identify agricultural priorities in different regions in terms of limiting factors that restrict the capacity for conservation and economic development 2.Develop and structure an information system 3.Obtain meaningful indices through the interaction of useful variables 4.Create models 5.Understand cycles (economic, climatic and political) under which different indicators perform 6.Measure current conditions and compare them with given baselines 7.It is important to know what par of current policies facilitate orderly development, and what proportion of it is indeed applied 8.There are several intangible variables of sociological and cultural nature in Mexico that contribute system noise for the evaluation of indicators that would best reflect reality. Therefore it is essential to “measure” the “Weltanschauung” in the population. This is the precursor sine qua non of every other circumstance presently affecting the Country

CONCLUSIONS 1.Social and production components of the Mexican agricultural system make it very complex at all levels. This situation is aggravated due to the transition in progress. 2.In its current format, an integrated idea of the state of general agricultural and environmental conditions for the Country cannot be attain; let alone if it is used to assess vulnerabilities, thresholds, or anticipate scenarios. 3.If external factors, such as trade, migration, global circulation, global change, etc., are not taken into consideration, it would be impossible to obtain an integrated diagnostic about the quality of the conditions present in Mexico

OBSERVATIONS There is some headway in the field of indicators and models that have been done to meet some compromises with international organizations such as the OECD, IADB, IBRD, and so forth. However, they do not address a systemic assessment of agro-environmental conditions. There is a major need for experience and of innovation in the topic. The limited sensibility about the political and economic importance in the use of resources, by ignoring the rate of use, stocks present, and future needs, prevents a better use of them.

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