Climate Change Scenario Planning: A Tool for Managing Resources in an Era of Uncertainty Kaloko-Honokohau NHP Joshua Tree National Park

Scenario Planning as part of the Planning Toolkit Figure from Peterson et al. Conservation Biology Volume 17, No. 2, April 2003

Scenario Planning Scenarios Are: A tool for long-term strategic planning Compelling narratives of alternative environments in which decisions may be played out Coherent, internally consistent, and plausible Scenarios Are Not: Predictions or Forecasts A method for arriving at the “most likely” future

One Dimensional vs Scenario Planning One-Dimensional Planning Outcomes B A C D Scenario Planning B A C D Possible Futures Elements Common to A-B Elements Common to A-C Elements Common to A-D

Examples of Scenario Exercises: Shell Oil  Early 1970s, Shell Oil used scenarios for long-term planning. Allowed them to be prepared for the 1970s oil crisis. Scenario planning is a discipline for rediscovering the original entrepreneurial power of creative foresight in contexts of accelerated change, greater complexity, and genuine uncertainty. —Pierre Wack, Royal Dutch/Shell, 1984

Examples of Scenario Exercises: Tucson Water Southwest Surface Water Availability (P-E)

Examples of Scenario Exercises: Tucson Water Some direct Treatment of CO River water Public accepts quality No direct Treatment of CO River water Public pays for better quality Industry standard Surface enhancement Recharge Only Enhanced recharge

Climate Change Scenario Planning Workshop held Nov 13-14, 2007 Goals: Challenge assumptions about the future Foster strategic thinking about how to respond in different situations Gain insight into how to manage change and plan in the face of uncertainty

Scenario Planning: An Integration of Science and Management Types of Scenarios  different purposes Decision makers, scientists, topical experts Decision makers Scientists, topical experts Strategic  testing concepts and models Exploratory  moving into the future, e.g., by extending past trends, considering contingencies Anticipatory  aiming toward preferred futures – and avoiding ‘nightmares’ Analyze Internal Dynamics Build & Test Scenarios Policy Screening List External Drivers Define Focal Question

“Summer Soaker” Current Mojave Desert: > 900 meters in elevation

“Summer Soaker” Plausible future Mojave Desert: > 1100 meters in elevation

“Summer Soaker” Potential loss of “transitional” environments

“When it rains, it pours” Fires, : Approx. 40,000 acres burned

“When it rains, it pours” Plausible future fires: Approx. 600,000 acres burned

Climate Change: Coming to a Park Near You! Time to make a plan Slide courtesy of Jill Baron, USGS

Foundation GMP Program Mgmt Plans – RSS Strategic Plan Implementation Plans Annual Performance Plan and Report WHYWHATHOW NPS PLANNING FRAMEWORK LONG TERMSHORT TERM

* Watershed Condition Assessments GMP * Foundation **** Document Desired Conditions Indicator & Target Value ** Strategies * Current Condition vs Target Value Current Condition *** Monitor * Adaptive Management * Vital Signs Monitoring Goals Goal A * Baseline Water Quality Reports * Climate Change NPS PLANNING FRAMEWORK: linking to the science