Vulnerability and Adaptation of Water Resources to Climate Change in Egypt Dr. Dia Eldin Elquosy

Water Resources in Egypt Nile Water Nile Water Groundwater Groundwater Rainfall Rainfall

Egypt Water Budget Nile Nile Groundwater Groundwater Rainfall Rainfall Land Drainage Reuse Land Drainage Reuse Treated Sewage and Industrial Effluent Treated Sewage and Industrial Effluent Desalination Desalination

Demand Agriculture and Aquaculture Agriculture and Aquaculture Domestic Domestic Industry Industry Navigation Navigation Hydropower Hydropower Environmental requirements Environmental requirements

Sensitivity of the Water System to Climate Change

Scenarios on the Effect of Climate Change on Nile Flows

Figure (1): Scenarios of change in Nile flows (Strezpek et al. (2001))

Scenarios on the Effect of Climate Change on Nile Flows Figure (2): Annual Average Stream Levels on the Nile at Atbara (UNEP 2005, Nile Water Sector, 2003)

Bergen University (Norway), 2007 sensitivity to rainfall is larger than that to evapotranspiration because the latter is only fully satisfied when soils have enough moisture content. Kagera catchment is more sensitive to evapotranspiration due to the existence of a number of small lakes and swamps while the sensitivity of Atbara to precipitation is highest as it is the most seasonal of all three catchments

Organization for Economic Co- operation and Development (OECD), 2004 Nile water availability is likely to be increasingly stressed due to higher demand and higher evaporative losses. Nile water availability is likely to be increasingly stressed due to higher demand and higher evaporative losses. This potential vulnerability could be seriously exacerbated should climatic impacts be accompanied by any concomitant reduction in the country's allocation of Nile water, or even unaccounted for excessive abstraction from upstream riparian countries This potential vulnerability could be seriously exacerbated should climatic impacts be accompanied by any concomitant reduction in the country's allocation of Nile water, or even unaccounted for excessive abstraction from upstream riparian countries

International Water Management Institute (IWMI), 2008 Basin under future climate scenarios may cause: i) wetter and warmer climate in most of the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, ii) low flows may become higher and severe, mid to long term droughts are likely to become less frequent; and iii) the potential future dam operations are unlikely to significantly affect water availability to Sudan and Egypt based on predicted outflows from six GCM's and many operation scenarios. The results are, however, uncertain with existing accuracy of climate models, which suggest that the region is likely to have the future potential to produce hydropower, increase flow duration and increase water storage capacity without affecting outflows to riparian countries in the 2050's Basin under future climate scenarios may cause: i) wetter and warmer climate in most of the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, ii) low flows may become higher and severe, mid to long term droughts are likely to become less frequent; and iii) the potential future dam operations are unlikely to significantly affect water availability to Sudan and Egypt based on predicted outflows from six GCM's and many operation scenarios. The results are, however, uncertain with existing accuracy of climate models, which suggest that the region is likely to have the future potential to produce hydropower, increase flow duration and increase water storage capacity without affecting outflows to riparian countries in the 2050's

Conclusions High sensitivity to precipitation and temperature High sensitivity to precipitation and temperature Uncertainty of orders of magnitude Uncertainty of orders of magnitude Effect of high and low natural flows on Egypt water system Effect of high and low natural flows on Egypt water system Few publications on the effect of climate change on rainfall in Egypt Few publications on the effect of climate change on rainfall in Egypt Groundwater increased salinity due to sea level rise Groundwater increased salinity due to sea level rise

Adaptation Uncertainty Uncertainty Inflow increase Inflow increase Inflow reduction Inflow reduction Development of new water resources Development of new water resources Soft interventions Soft interventions