Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Forest Growth and Yield Xinbiao Zhu CIF-NL-AGM St John’s, NL November 12–14, 2014
Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Forest inventory (stand type, site quality…) Planning periods (5yrs) Planning horizon (160 yrs) Decision variables Management strategies G & Y curves Coefficients Objective functions (management goals, Constraints) LP AAC Stocking level Species composition Age structure Harvest schedule Forest Planning System
Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service GIS forestry inventory
Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Sources of forest growth & yield curves Stand table projection model (stand simulator): Best possible regression equations link growth and influencing factors derived from PSP data, and calibrated using TSP data. Calculate periodic recruitment, increment and survival of tree cohort (defined by species, DBH, and age). Project overall stand development over time based on characterising the stand structure at the start of the projection period (initial condition). A conventional stand table format is used to define structure of a stand on a specific site at any point in time. Simplicity, relative accuracy in prediction of volume growth, largely used in forest industry for timber supply analysis and management planning. Require no climate data in projection of stand development (assuming that tree growth conditions remain constant over time).
Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Process-based forest growth model Physiological process-based growth model: Key physiological processes are driven by climate and soil variables that define tree growth and biomass yield. Complex data of many parameters for calibration, validation, and prediction. Don’t have the same accuracy as empirical G & Y model. Need professional expertise to calibrate and use. Useful tools in research of climate change impacts, but rarely suitable for practical forestry. Forest gap model: Key physiological processes are simplified and driven by climate and soil variables that define tree growth and biomass yield. Less parameters for calibration, validation, and prediction. Don’t have the same accuracy as empirical G & Y model. Need professional expertise to calibrate and use. Popular tools in research of climate change impacts, but rarely suitable for practical forestry.
Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Jabowa III forest gap model Initial Stand Condition (PSPs) DBH, Height, Species Site Conditions (PSPs) Elevation, Latitude, Soil texture, Soil rock percentage, Soil depth, Soil fertility status, Root depth, Depth of water table Historical weather records Future climate change scenarios Temperature Precipitation
Composition of the Atmosphere and Radiative Forcing Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service PERMANENT GASESVARIABLE GASES GasPercentGasPercentPPM(by volume) Dry air N H 2 O0 to 4 O CO Ar0.93 (<1%)CH Ne0.0018N 2 O He0.0005O H *CFCs Xe *F-gases (HFC, PFC, SF6)
Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service IPCC Assessment Reports:1990 SR90, 1992 IS92, 2000 SAR, TAR, 2007 AR4, 2013 AR5 Others: academic (1/2/4xCO2), Stabilization Pathways (S, SRE, SP), etc. IPCC scenario development process Socio- economic scenarios Population GDP Energy Industry Transportation Agriculture … Emission scenarios GHGs Aerosols & VOCs… Land use & land cover Radiative forcing scenarios to GCM Atmospheric concentration Global carbon cycle Atmospheric chemistry Global climate model (GCM) scenarios Temperature Humidity Soil moisture Extreme events …
Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service GCM calibration IPCC AR5 Report
Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service (Moss et al., Nature 2010, IPCC AR5 2013) IPCC 2013 AR5 Scenarios Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) NameRadiative forcing CO 2 - equiv. emissions PathwayAR 5 surface temperature projections ( o C) 2046 – 2065 Mean & range Mean & range RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 ~2.6 W m -2, peak b/w ~4.5 W m -2, peak at 2010 ~6.0 W m -2, peak at 2080 ~8.0 W m -2, rising in 21 st century ~490 ppm ~650 ppm ~850 ppm >1,370 ppm peak & decline stabilization rising 1.0 ( ) 1.4 (0.9 – 2.0) 1.3 (0.8 – 1.8) 2.0 (1.4 – 2.6) 1.0 ( ) 1.8 (1.1 – 2.6) 2.2 (1.4 – 3.1) 3.7 (2.6 – 4.8)
Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Outputs from GCMs
Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Outputs from GCMs
Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service CGCM3T47 has a resolution of 4.7 o Latitude x 4.7 o Longitude (map grids) Wood supply analysis is based on ecoregion. GCM Resolution
GCM Outputs vs. Observed Data Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Port Aux Basque Corner Brook Deer LakeSt. Anthony
GCM Outputs vs. Observed Data Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Port Aux Basque Corner Brook Deer LakeSt. Anthony
A Downscaling Technique (Weather Generator) Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Distribution of dry & wet length Mean temp standard deviation dry/wet days Distribution of dry & wet days Inputs: historical weather records (30 years) Solar radiation air temperature precipitation Outputs: synthetic surface weather (30 years) Solar radiation air temperature precipitation Seasonal cycles of MEANS and STDEVs are modeled with Fourier Series
Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Downscaled Minimum Temperature Port Aux Basque Corner Brook Deer LakeSt. Anthony
Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Downscaled Precipitation Port Aux Basque Corner Brook Deer LakeSt. Anthony
Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Spatial interpolation of downscaled climate data Prepare database (daily minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation, solar radiation*) for all sites. Temperature adjustment based on the lapse rate (6 o C/km ) before and after applying the GIS surface interpolation.
Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Converting data to the required format for JABOWA III forest gap model Deer Lake – Baseline –
Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Jabowa III forest gap model Initial Stand Condition (PSPs) DBH, Height, Species Site Conditions (PSPs) Elevation, Latitude, Soil texture, Soil rock percentage, Soil depth, Soil fertility status, Root depth, Depth of water table Historical weather records Future climate change scenarios Temperature Precipitation
Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Model calibration and simulation PSP growth data – historical JABOWA-III Gap Model Historical climate data PSP tree list Initial stand condition AR 5 climate change scenarios Simulated growth – RCP 2.6 Simulated growth – RCP 4.5 Simulated growth – RCP 6.0 Simulated growth – RCP 8.5Simulated growth – Historical Calibration
Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Model Calibration Immature balsam fir (Plot number , District 14) Balsam fir White birch
Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Simulated basal Area Balsam fir – Avalon Ecoregion Simulation Period (1 = 5 yrs)
Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Simulated stand volume Balsam fir – Central Ecoregion Simulation Period (1 = 5 yrs)
Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Estimate of climate change impacts PSP growth data – historical JABOWA-III Gap Model Historical climate data PSP tree list Initial stand condition AR 5 climate change scenarios Simulated growth – RCP 2.6 Simulated growth – RCP 4.5 Simulated growth – RCP 6.0 Simulated growth – RCP 8.5Simulated growth – Historical Calibration Strata-b ased climate change modifiers– RCP 2.6 Strata-b ased climate change modifiers– RCP 4.5 Strata-b ased climate change modifiers– RCP 6.0 Strata-b ased climate change modifiers– RCP 8.5 Calculation of climate change modifiers
Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Climate Change Modifiers Province Average RCP 2.6bSbFwSwBtL Year RCP RCP 4.5bSbFwSwBtL Year RCP RCP 8.5bSbFwSwBtL Year RCP
Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Climate Modifiers
Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Climate Modifiers
Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Yield curves x Climate modifiers Original yield curves Climate modifiers
Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Climate-modified yield curves
Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Forest inventory (stand type, site quality…) Planning periods (5yrs) Planning horizon (160 yrs) Decision variables Management strategies Modified G & Y curves Coefficients Objective functions (management goals, Constraints) LP AAC Stocking level Species composition Age structure Harvest schedule Forest Planning System
Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service Acknowledgement CFSI and IBES funded the project through graduate student fellowship UNB colleagues provide supervision of graduate student activities NRCan colleagues provide downscaled climate change scenarios data
Natural Resources Ressources naturelles CanadaCanada Canadian Forest Service