801 Energy Systems AnalysisArnulf Grubler C-2 Main Energy Transformations: History and Future Scenarios

801 Energy Systems AnalysisArnulf Grubler Main Energy Transitions: History Non-commercial  commercial Renewable  fossil Rural  urban South  North  South Low exergy  higher exergy (H:C ratio↑) Improved efficiency/productivity Conversion deepening (e.g. electrification) Increasing supply/demand density Desulfurization, Decarbonization

801 Energy Systems AnalysisArnulf Grubler World Primary Energy Substitution Non-commercial

801 Energy Systems AnalysisArnulf Grubler World Population Source: IIASA-WEC, 1998

801 Energy Systems AnalysisArnulf Grubler North – South Orders of Magnitude * World Primary Energy, EJ South as %60%30%40% 66% - 75% World Population, South as %75%66%80% 80% - 90% * Range of 4 IPCC SRES marker scenarios (no tails)

801 Energy Systems AnalysisArnulf Grubler Geography of Global Energy Use: Middle Course IIASA-WEC “B” Scenario

801 Energy Systems AnalysisArnulf Grubler Primary Energy and Wealth

801 Energy Systems AnalysisArnulf Grubler 2000

801 Energy Systems AnalysisArnulf Grubler 2070

801 Energy Systems AnalysisArnulf Grubler IPCC Future Energy – Carbon Scenarios

801 Energy Systems AnalysisArnulf Grubler World Primary Energy Hydro xxxxx ? Nuclear

801 Energy Systems AnalysisArnulf Grubler Shares in Primary Energy

801 Energy Systems AnalysisArnulf Grubler 3 Illustrative Scenarios (IIASA-WEC Study) Long-term Futures are “constructed”: via near-term R&D, investment, cooperation, regulation, etc. Resource availability: technology and investment rather than geology alone Path dependency: Mutually exclusive development paths Supply – demand interdependence

801 Energy Systems AnalysisArnulf Grubler Conventional “Wisdom”: Return to Coal (scraping the barrel in case of high demand) Source: IIASA-WEC, 1998

801 Energy Systems AnalysisArnulf Grubler “ Oil & Gas ‘Forever’ ” (controversial, but feasible with unconventional oil/gas) Source: IIASA-WEC, 1998

801 Energy Systems AnalysisArnulf Grubler “A Grand Transition Scenario” (feasible only with low energy demand) Source: IIASA-WEC, 1998

801 Energy Systems AnalysisArnulf Grubler historical % % 20% Renewables/Nuclear 100%80% 60% 40%20% % 40% Coal 80% 100% 20%80% Oil/Gas 0% 100%0% 1990 Path Dependent Futures in IIASA-WEC and IPCC SRES Scenarios

801 Energy Systems AnalysisArnulf Grubler World H/C Ratio

801 Energy Systems AnalysisArnulf Grubler Final Energy (what customers pay for) Quantity (price) AND quality (price??) Rising incomes: Higher quantity AND quality (more expensive) fuels Cost minimization: incl. inconvenience costs, obstrusiveness, environment Higher form value (exergy) Link to efficiency gains and new services (you can’t run the Internet on coal directly )

801 Energy Systems AnalysisArnulf Grubler US – Final Energy by Form Total Liquids Grids Solids

801 Energy Systems AnalysisArnulf Grubler US - Final Energy Structure Solids Liquids Grids

801 Energy Systems AnalysisArnulf Grubler Final Energy by Form: Invariance across very different scenarios Source: IIASA-WEC, 1998

801 Energy Systems AnalysisArnulf Grubler Energy Intensities (PE/GDP)

801 Energy Systems AnalysisArnulf Grubler Comparing Energy Intensities (Energy productivity in Economies) Energy Level (primary, secondary, final) Aggregate or sectorial Comprehensiveness (total, commercial, fuel-specific, e.g. oil) Comparability of GDP -- market exchange rates MER (DCs  ) -- purchasing power parities PPP (DCs  ) BUT: PPP cross-sectional, NOT longitudinal measure

Differences in Energy per GDP Ratios: Primary vs. Final Total vs. commercial MER vs. PPP MER PPP

801 Energy Systems AnalysisArnulf Grubler Putting Exergy into a Production Function of US GDP Growth (Is it basically all energy productivity growth?) Ayres & Warr, 2002

801 Energy Systems AnalysisArnulf Grubler Marginal Productivities of Capital, Labor, and Exergy (Work) in US GDP Growth (estimates by Ayres&Warr, 2002)

801 Energy Systems AnalysisArnulf Grubler Conversion Deepening: Share of Primary Energy Going to World Electricity Generation (substitution equivalent method)

801 Energy Systems AnalysisArnulf Grubler US – Growth of Power Density of Electricity Delivered (kV ) Analyzed as Two-phase Logistic Growth Process. Source: Ausubel and Marchetti, Daedalus 125(3): (Summer 1996)

801 Energy Systems AnalysisArnulf Grubler Environment Higher exergy quality = higher environmental quality (less S, C) Environmental Kuznets curves Counterbalanced by demand growth, and increasing demand/supply density (“megacities”, large point sources) “Autonomous” rates of change: too slow (but policies can lean on ex(im)plicit consumer choice

801 Energy Systems AnalysisArnulf Grubler Sulfur Emissions per Unit Energy OECD World REFs DCs

801 Energy Systems AnalysisArnulf Grubler Carbon Intensity of Energy gC/MJ wood = 29.9 coal = 25.8 oil = 20.1 gas = Carbon intensity of:

801 Energy Systems AnalysisArnulf Grubler Carbon Intensity of Final Energy vs. GDP/Capita

801 Energy Systems AnalysisArnulf Grubler Decarbonization Scenarios Source: IPCC SRES, 2000

801 Energy Systems AnalysisArnulf Grubler Tons C/toe Explaining Scenarios Differences via Models of TC