CME trajectory deduced from cosmic ray measurements K. Munakata, T. Kuwabara and J. W. Bieber.

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Presentation transcript:

CME trajectory deduced from cosmic ray measurements K. Munakata, T. Kuwabara and J. W. Bieber

Cosmic ray storms isotropic intensity decreases Forbush Decrease anisotropy enhancements B×Gradient anisotropy ⇒ deduction of CME trajectory CME, Shock Geomagnetic & Cosmic-ray storms

Ｂ ×Gradient anisotropy ｰ G ⊥ pointing toward CME center : IMF unit vector : density gradient vector : Larmour radius ~0.2 AU for muons

CMEs analyzed Data used 35 directions (Nagoya, Hobart, SaoMartinho) 1ry Energy 50~120 GeV Prototype Muon Detector Network Onset time of SSC Max. K p FD sizeCorresponding CME Associated X-ray flare Onset timeSizeLocation 4/11 13: %4/10 05:30X  S, 9  W 8/27 19: %8/25 16:50X  S, 34  E

Observation 4/118/27 Gx Gy Gz

Method 1 Get r from observed G(r) every hour Method 2 Get trajectory by best-fitting the expected G(r) to the observed Analysis Assume Gaussian CR density distribution, as… : depth: width Then gradient will be… Derive r using observed G(r)

G obs |G obs | ⇒ r G obs orientation ⇒ direction of CME center Location of CME center (x,y,z in unit of ) Method 1

4/11 CME by Method1 Moving direction GSE lat.=48°, long.=193° Velocity (using average SW speed 650km/s for Vx…) |V|=1000km/s Width of CME λ=0.10AU Impact parameter at earth D=0.017AU

Method 2 Then the gradient at t will be… Set the location of CME center at time t, as… Find parameters which give…

Moving direction θ=60°,φ=183° Velocity (Vx=650km/s) V=1300km/s Width of CME λ=0.14AU Impact parameter D=0.035AU 4/11 CME by Method 2

Moving direction θ=-12°,φ=212° Velocity (using Vx=500km/s) V=610km/s Width of CME λ=0.087AU Impact parameter D=0.12AU 8/27 CME by Metod 1

Moving direction θ= ｰ 10°,φ=224° Velocity (Vx=500km/s ） V=700km/s Width of CME λ=0.14AU Impact parameter D=0.22AU 8/27 CME by Method 2

Summary 4/11 CME CME center hit the earth moving northward 8/27 CME CME center passed the south of earth moving from east to west of the sun CME Method1/2 Moving DirectionSpeed [km/s] Width [AU] D [AU] 4/111θ= 48°φ= 193° θ= 60°φ= 183° /271θ= -12°φ= 212° θ= -10°φ= 224°