Norwegian Ocean and Climate Project (NOClim) Phase II: including ProClim (Polar Ocean Climate Processes) By Solfrid Sætre Hjøllo (project officer) Peter M. Haugan (project leader) Presented by Helge Drange (module leader) Project office at

Outline of talk 1.Objectives and structure of NOClim II 2.Results and status from the tasks 3.Connections to other parts of NORKLIMA 4.Motivation for continuation as a coordinated project 5.Important future NOClim questions

1. Objectives and structure NOClim Phase II Overall objective to significantly improve our understanding of processes which govern oceanic heat transport towards the Nordic Seas, and which provide the basis for atmospheric heat transport from the Atlantic sector towards northern Europe. Funding : 16 mill NOK (18 person years) From Norklima

Mod A: Theory and modelling of the meridional oceanic heat transport To elucidate how stable the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is to human induced greenhouse warming Drange/Nøst, LaCasce, Melsom Scientific Steering Group (Haugan, Marotzke, Drange, Nøst, Dokken, Østerhus, Mauritzen, Loeng, Eldevik, Ådlandsvik) Project leader: Peter M. Haugan Project office: Solfrid Sætre Hjøllo Modul AModul BModul C Modul D ProClim NOClim Phase II Structure

Mod B: Analyses of abrupt changes in the past To identify whether rapid climate transitions in the past were associated with changes in the overturning rate in the Nordic Seas. Dokken/Østerhus Scientific Steering Group (Haugan, Marotzke, Drange, Nøst, Dokken, Østerhus, Mauritzen, Loeng, Eldevik, Ådlandsvik) Project leader: Peter M. Haugan Project office: Solfrid Sætre Hjøllo Modul AModul BModul C Modul D ProClim NOClim Phase II Structure

Mod C: Analysis of modern variability and detection of significant changes To investigate whether the balance of evidence (from observations, process understanding and models) indicates that abrupt changes are underway or likely to happen in the near future Mauritzen/Loeng, Skagseth, Mork Scientific Steering Group (Haugan, Marotzke, Drange, Nøst, Dokken, Østerhus, Mauritzen, Loeng, Eldevik, Ådlandsvik) Project leader: Peter M. Haugan Project office: Solfrid Sætre Hjøllo Modul AModul BModul C Modul D ProClim NOClim Phase II Structure

Four work packages 1.Deep mixing and sinking T Eldevik 2.Water mass formation on shelves P M. Haugan 3.Slope convection and overflows off shelves B Ådlandsvik 4.Integration by (basin scale) models, observations and theory H Drange ( only) Funding : 26 MNOK (28 person years) From the Polar Climate Programme

ProClim Key innovative activities: Development of coupled fine scale atmosphere-ice- ocean polynya model (in WP2) Microstructure measuring system (MSS) (in WP3) Trawl-proof bottom-mounted ADCPs in Storfjordrenna and south of Bjørnøya, contribution to ASOF (in WP3)

2. Results and status Status publications (partly updated in 2005):117 Status personell –Resources: 18 (NOClim) + 28 (ProClim) person years –3 changed start/end-dates within project period, 2 end-dates extended to 2007 due to maternity leaves.

Deviations from project plan – : only minor 2003, NOClim mod B: Geological focus shifted from Faeroe-Shetland Channel to Faeroe margin due to better core quality and more representative current regime covered 2004, ProClim WP3 : Idealized very high- resolution experiments postponed to 2005/6 –2005: Field work ProClim WP2 not completed due to weather, polar bears Alternative solutions: 2006 reduced scope field work or expand theoretical work

“Dilution of the northern North Atlantic Ocean in recent decades” Curry and Mauritzen, Science, 2005, in press Selected results, NOClim mod C Figure here

Influence of the North Atlantic sub-polar gyre on the Thermohaline Circulation Hjálmar Hátún, Anne Britt Sandø, Helge Drange, Bogi Hansen, Heðinn Valdimarsson Submitted to Science, in review Selected results, NOClim mod A Figure here

Mapping position of the Polar Front Changes in depth of thermocline can be reconstructed from 1) paleo- proxies of plantic foraminifera and 2) by geochemical analysis of benthic foraminifera( bottom welling species) 1 2 Selected results, NOClim mod B Knowledge of frontal slope  geostrophic flux calculations 1 2

Selected results ProClim WP1, 2 and 3 Synthesis ProClim WP4

3. Connections to other parts of NORKLIMA Co-operation –CABANERA (Carbon fluxes in the Barents Sea) Field work and ocean mixing studies: Fer/Sundfjord –ECOBE (North Atlantic climate variability - Barents Sea ecosystem) Bjørnøya-Fugløya moorings, cruises, practial collaboration –RegClim Ocean/ice model development: Budgell, Ådlandsvik Future applications –NOClim+ProClim will provide input to large-scale climate modelling –ProClim WP4 quantified flux exchanges: useful for marine effect studies –RegClim marine effect studies

4. Motivation for continuation Natural variability and climate change Quantification and process studies important for basic understanding, and for evaluation and development of climate models International Polar Year 2007 Enormous, unique amount of data allowing comprehensive climate research in the Atlantic/Arctic sector International efforts E.g. UK RAPID already extends to 2008, further extension planned

Mostly positive experience 4. Motivation for continuation … as a coordinated project Total no of publications117 Cross-institutional authorship 62 Female NOClim/ProClim scientist involved 40 Networking (including international partner) 35 Project office involved9 Cross-disiplinary authorship5

Mostly positive experience Stimulates cross-disiplinary and cross- institutional publications, and public outreach National and international networking –NOClim internationally established as ”brand name”, even as the youngest of the coordinated NORKLIMA projects –Access to networks of special relevance for recruitment and female personell Comparable project size allows influence –Opportunities: ASOF/CLIC/EU IP DAMOCLES, Nordic, US SEARCH Predictable financial support creates good working environment 4. Motivation for continuation … as a coordinated project Total no of publications117 Cross-institutional authorship 62 Female NOClim/ProClim scientist involved 40 Networking (including international partner) 35 Project office involved9 Cross-disiplinary authorship5

4. Motivation for continuation … as a coordinated project cont. Possible weaknesses (general moments with specific comments for Noclim+ProClim) Only mainstream science? Project ideas mainly recruited from well-established groups/institutions, too little responsibility given to young promising scientists, too much ”marching band” Too small/large group? NOClim II+ProClim has suitable and manageable size and structure for the topics addressed. Reduced size means less research topics. Disciplinary vs. cross-disciplinary research Cross-disciplinary research has, in general, a great potential but is also prone to partly fulfilment of expectations or failure (e.g., paleo-geophysics)

5. Important future NOClim questions Building on developed competence 1) Transport of heat, salt and momentum by eddies Cross-frontal exchange, circulation, biological impact 2) Sea ice processes New ice freezing, ice transport and deformation, new possibilities for extended use of remote sensing observations (SAR), expand geographical coverage to wider polar regions 3) Overflows and vertical mixing Apply expertise to Denmark Strait, North Atlantic, Southern Ocean – key ocean process in the global climate system 4) Contribute to the development of parameterisations to be used in large-scale climate models

Innovative aspects and potential –Coupled paleo/oceanography research Geological cores in sections allows dynamical interpretations/flux calculations: New methodology, large potential – but difficult – and not yet proven –Marine and polar climate monitoring systems Development and international collaboration, linked to ASOF, AOOS, AOSB/Clic, SEARCH, CARE, RAPID, and EU Integrated Project DAMOCLES from late Project office at

Final word from project leader Aftenposten : "Da Norges forskningsråd fikk i gang sitt ellers meget prisverdige program for polar klimaforskning for perioden , var det en uttrykkelig forutsetning at forskningen kun måtte foregå i "norske" områder." "En sterk norsk satsing, fokusert på grunnforskning av høy kvalitet, og som sikrer at norske forskergrupper ikke tvinges inn i snevre geografiske rammer, kan få frem en ny generasjon av polarforskere." Process oriented, high quality basic research is required to achieve real progress in understanding the climate system. -Please allow us to accept invitations to use other countries’ infrastructure, too! Project office at