Analysis of Fiscal Stress in the Cities of New York State Office of the State Comptroller Alan G. Hevesi, Comptroller Division of Local Government Services and Economic Development and Economic Development Mark P. Pattison, Deputy Comptroller

Fiscal Health: A municipality can finance services on an ongoing basis  Endure short-run pressures such as revenue shortfalls or unforeseen expenses  Maintain adequate service levels  Balance risks with revenues and adequate fiscal management  Adjust to long-term challenges

Measuring Financial Condition  Desired Characteristics of an Indicator System  Comprehensive  Handles Complexity  Operationally manageable  Produces reliable and valid results  Examples  Rating Agencies  School District Financial Indicator System  OSC Risk Assessment Indicators  GFOA Financial Indicators for Small Cities

ICMA Framework

Environmental Factors: Measurement Financial Condition

Organizational Factors:  Timeliness of Financial Report  Budget Variances

Financial Condition Indicators: Five Factors Account for 73 Percent of the Total Variance

Financial Factor Analysis Results

Causes of Fiscal Stress

Summary of Findings  Demographic factors and management indicators can be used to identify fiscal stress.  Stress is often apparent in these measures before it is evident in fiscal data.  Early identification can assist in the prevention of fiscal stress and the development of intervention strategies.  Strong linkage of demographic factors and fiscal stress implies that for major upstate cities, stress may be unavoidable.