A European Commission funded Regional Programme since Improvement of the road section of Gerede - Gürbulak Border Gate and Impacts Evaluation

A European Commission funded Regional Programme since Improvement of the road section of Gerede - Gürbulak Border Gate and Impacts Evaluation

A European Commission funded Regional Programme since 1993 Project Description  Required works to be done under this project:  Preparation of design and safety projects of all applications  Determination of project consultant  Guardrail installation (totally 250 km)  Pedestrian overpass/underpasses installation (totally 10 locations)  Installation of signalisations on existing junctions (totally 12 location )  Implementation of new interchange (junctions) (totally 2 locations)  Existing junctions improvement (totally 5 locations)  Select the appropriate impact measures  Select the appropriate analysis method  Evaluating economic impacts of the project.  Estimated investment cost  52 Million € 3 Improvement of the road section of Gerede - Gürbulak Border Gate and Impacts Evaluation

A European Commission funded Regional Programme since 1993  This project route is part of future TEN-T Road Network for Turkey and priority project route in TINA Turkey study is HLG short-term priority project/and route is providing connection to Zonguldak, Filyos, Samsun and Trabzon Ports of Black Sea Region This project section is a transit route between Europe, Caucasia and Asia Part of TINA for Turkey Core Road Network and priority route in TINA study –The objective of TINA for Turkey is to define a multi-modal transport network (Core Network) designed to extend the European Union's TEN-T network into Turkey –Now, the Core Transport Network that is determined at the end of TINA study, is negotiated between EC and Turkey within chapter 21 “Trans European Network” This project route is a part of –continuation of Pan-European Transport Corridor IV –E-road, HLG south-east axes, BSEC, TRACECA, ECO, UN/ESCAP, TEM and Euro-Asian Road 4 Improvement of the road section of Gerede - Gürbulak Border Gate and Impacts Evaluation

A European Commission funded Regional Programme since 1993 Project General Objectives Preventing accident with fatal, injured and damaged, Capacity increase in mountainous region, Reducing travel time on whole route, Generate new economic development and create new demand, Improving the accessibility, Increasing road safety level on TRACECA route. Decreasing the user coast 5 Improvement of the road section of Gerede - Gürbulak Border Gate and Impacts Evaluation

A European Commission funded Regional Programme since 1993 Actual and Future Demand  Traffic Volume ( vehicles/day) Maximum AADT :7.070 Minimum AADT :3.150 Heavy vehicle changing ratio 25% - 35%  Traffic Volume (forecasting in TINA project, 2020 – vehicles / day) Future traffic flows (2020) are estimated using a transport demand model. The model uses a single socio-economic scenario and three different infrastructure scenarios (Reference, Long-term Investment and Alternative Scenario) –AADT: Financial Analysis PPP application has not been available yet. There isn’t any existing FA study. There is no any updated Feasibility study 6 Improvement of the road section of Gerede - Gürbulak Border Gate and Impacts Evaluation

A European Commission funded Regional Programme since 1993  According to our estimations (if Turkey has enough financing sources) start year of the project : 2013 end year of project : 2015 Roughly estimated cost :52 million € (for whole project)  This project is not suitable directly for interesting of private investors with PPP approach at the moment.  Economic benefit due to reduction in number of accidents resulting from increase in geometrical and physical standards  Time savings due to increase in vehicle speed 7 Improvement of the road section of Gerede - Gürbulak Border Gate and Impacts Evaluation

A European Commission funded Regional Programme since 1993 Existing situation  Divided highway with interrupted flow increase road user impacts (money cost of travel, travel time, safety, comfort, reliability etc.)  According to 2009 accident data, there are 939 accidents on Gerede-Gürbulak road section. On 939 accidents, 113 deaths, injuries and vehicle property damages has occurred. After project implemented  It is estimated that the user costs will decrease 50%.  According to 2011 current prices, an estimated profit of 75 million € will be provided when the result of reduction of user cost.  Estimated B/C ratio is 1,44  Economic impacts (value added, property value etc)will increase. 8 Improvement of the road section of Gerede - Gürbulak Border Gate and Impacts Evaluation

A European Commission funded Regional Programme since 1993 Regional integration criteria The project is located on: TRACECA Route On access link to TRACECA Route Other X  The project impact on regional cooperation is: HighMediumLowNone X  The project impact on regional development is: HighMediumLowNone X  The infrastructure directly interconnects: More than two countries Two countriesOne country X  Total annual vehicle that is entered into Turkey and exited from Turkey 1.G ü rbulak Border Gate to IRAN  vehicles / year (Heavy vehicle ratio : 71%, in ) 9 Improvement of the road section of Gerede - Gürbulak Border Gate and Impacts Evaluation

A European Commission funded Regional Programme since 1993 Economic criteria Economic assessment Feasibility Pre feasibility Estimated costs Ongoing studies No action  X  Estimated investment volume Below 12 Mln EuroBetween 12/20 Mln EuroMore than 20 Mln Euro  X Estimated investment period Equal or below 5 yearsBetween 6 and 12 yearsLonger than 12 years X  Private funding is interested in the project YesNo  X Legal framework for concession is In placeIn processNot available  X 10 Improvement of the road section of Gerede - Gürbulak Border Gate and Impacts Evaluation

A European Commission funded Regional Programme since 1993 Technical criteria The project is creating a new link or node or upgrading an existing ones: UpgradeNew X  The project impacts on inter-modality are: HighMediumLowNone X  The project impacts on travel costs reduction for international transport are: HighMediumLowNone X  The project impacts on travel time savings for international transport are: HighMediumLowNone X  The project impacts on reliability/safety are: SignificantMediumNot relevantNone X  11 Improvement of the road section of Gerede - Gürbulak Border Gate and Impacts Evaluation

A European Commission funded Regional Programme since 1993 Environmental criteria Infrastructure negative environmental effects NoneMinimalSeriousIrreversible  X  Changes in emission due to traffic Sensible reduction MediumMinimalNoneIncreasing  X  12 Improvement of the road section of Gerede - Gürbulak Border Gate and Impacts Evaluation

A European Commission funded Regional Programme since 1993 Policy based criteria Project has firm commitment of government and countries YES Master Planning or Similar YES Other Governmental papers NO X  Project depends on completion of other upstream investments NO YES Investment already ongoing/ready YES Investment not yet started X  The project is ready for implementation ImmediateLess than 3 yearsMore than 3 years  X  13 Improvement of the road section of Gerede - Gürbulak Border Gate and Impacts Evaluation