We routinely observe the Tropical Pacific to forecast El Niño/La Niña and their influence on climate

Courtesy of: Rosanna M. Sumagaysay, NASA/JPL Physical Oceanography DAC Sea Surface Height and Temperature Anomalies: Dec 96 - Feb 99

We established an operational in situ ENSO Observing System in 1997 We have an ongoing operational satellite surface temperature capability We will have continuing observations of sea surface topography from the Jason-1 altimeter mission in 2000

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation

Mid-Nov Forecast (top) Observations (bottom) Courtesy: NOAA’s Climate Forecast Center PRECIPITATION Dec98/Feb99

Global Precipitation Anomalies Forecast (above) & Observed (below) for the 1997/98 El Nino Courtesy of David Anderson ECMWF

But phenomena in addition to ENSO influence our climate: -- Pacific Decadal Oscillation -- Arctic Oscillation -- Indian Ocean Dipole -- Antarctic Circumpolar Wave which we need to observe, understand and forecast and the observations must include the subsurface

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation Courtesy of the National Geographic Magazine

North Atlantic Oscillation (or the North Atlantic expression of the Arctic Oscillation)

Tropical Atlantic Variability Courtesy of the National Geographic Magazine

The Arctic Oscillation

Potential Wintertime Predictability for Temperature Courtesy of NOAA Climate Prediction Center

Courtesy of: Howard Freland, IOS Surface Temperature for Jan/Feb, 1998 Anomaly

Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Level Pressure Anomalies Courtesy of Warren White, Scripps

Correlation of dominant modes of variability of SST and Precipitation in & around Australia (Based on the analysis of a 40-year record) Courtesy of Warren White, Scripps

Courtesy of Toshio Yamagata, U of Tokyo Correlation between Rainfall and the Indian Ocean Dipole Index

Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Courtesy of Frank Wentz and Chelle Gentemann, RSS

We had a satellite capability to determine surface vector winds for 10 months in 1996/97 We have that capability again with Quickscat (July 1999) and Sea Winds on ADEOS-2 (late 2001)

Hurricane Gert and Tropical Storms Harvey & Hilary Threaten North America Observations from NASA’s Quikscat on Sept 20, 1999 Courtesy of Liu, Xie & Tang, JPL

Courtesy of : Dudley Chelton, OSU Quikscat-derived surface vector winds July 21 to Oct 21, 1999

We are at a point in time where we can consider putting it all together for the global oceans: -- satellite and in situ observations -- observations and models -- research and operations

Courtesy of Lakshmi Kantha Colorado U Nowcasts (11/ /25, 1998) Forecasts (thru 1/24/99)

Warming of the World Ocean Courtesy of: Sydney Levitus, National Oceanographic Data Center, NOAA

Courtesy of NOAA/NCDC

For the global oceans, we have: -- satellite coverage of the surface -- communications -- computers and models all capable of operating in near real time However, we lack a complementary in-situ system to observe the subsurface

WOCE Stations and a typical monthly XBT coverage

Argo is the next step in global ocean observations It will complement our existing global satellite capability -- surface temperature -- topography -- vector winds

P rofiling Autonomous Floats ~ $12,000 each ~ 4-yr design life t & s profiles real-time positioning & communications deploy from ships of opportunity These are oceanic analogues to radiosondes used in operational meteorology

Video courtesy of Webb Research

Indian Ocean Float 1000-m depth 25-day steps Jan 95 - Dec 98 Courtesy of Breck Owens, WHOI & Russ Davis, SIO

Labrador Sea Float Trajectories 600 & 1400 m 10-day steps Jan 97 - Dec 98 Courtesy of Breck Owens, WHOI & Russ Davis, SIO

Mixed Layer Depth Deepest Blue 1,000 m or more 10-day steps Jan 97 - Dec 98 Courtesy of Breck Owens, WHOI & Russ Davis, SIO

Typical global coverage with 3,000 Argo floats

International Commitments for Argo Floats 3/24/01

International Implementation Planning Meetings for Argo (Sponsored by the WMO and IOC) -- Pacific Ocean -- Tokyo, April 13-14, Atlantic Ocean -- Paris, July 10-11, Indian Ocean -- TBD time & location, 2001 (planning trip March 14-15)

Initial U.S. Argo Float Deployments

Target Regions for Deployment of the International Argo Floats Already Funded 12/3/00 The first regions to be fully covered will be the Atlantic and Tropical Pacific

Exclusive Economic Zones for the Pacific Ocean 60N 30N Eq 30S 60S 120W120E180

Proposed Deployment of Argo Floats in 2001 compared with EEZ coverage in the western Pacific

The WMO & IOC have endorsed/accepted Argo: -- as an important component of the operational observing system of GOOS and GCOS -- as a major contribution to CLIVAR and other research programs -- with the data and derived products from Argo floats being “freely available in real-time and delayed mode”

The IOC Resolution on Argo states that: -- “as with existing surface drifting buoys, some…[floats]...may drift into waters under national jurisdiction…” -- “…concerned coastal states must be informed in advance...of all deployments of...floats which might drift into [their] waters…”

Argo Information Centre Full-time Technical Coordinator hired to provide services for Argo as are provided for DBCP & SOOP To be managed under the new Joint Technical Commission on Oceanography and Marine Meteorology To provide notification for float deployments

Adequate coverage of the western tropical Pacific —a priority area— will of necessity involve float deployment within the EEZs of Pacific Island Nations Consequently, we have approached these Nations via SOPAC and, working through its Council, have secured an understanding with the Pacific Island Forum

The IOC Resolution was silent concerning the issue of deployment of Argo floats within EEZs

The next step in implementation requires planning for the deployment of floats from ships or aircraft of opportunity If there is to be adequate coverage of the western tropical Pacific —a priority area— this will involve float deployment within the EEZs of Pacific Island nations

Planned U.S. Argo float deployments during 2001 Black = volunteer ships Colors = research vessels 12/3/00

We are seeking national commitments to operational observing systems for the global oceans, just as we have for the atmosphere An essential element is building national consensus, bridging between different agencies in each nation -- research and operational -- oceanic and atmospheric -- civilian and Naval -- weather and climate

Why develop political consensus? We are seeking national commitments to operational observing systems for the global oceans, just as we have for the atmosphere We routinely collect satellite observations of the surface of the global oceans, but we are not able to collect complementary subsurface observations

Given an understanding of Argo, there is strong initial support But continuing support will depend on countries being able to derive benefit from the data Countries with well developed oceanographic and climate forecasting capabilities will be able to do so, with the ‘free & open’ data policy But other countries will need access to such capabilities if they, too, are to be able to derive full benefit from the data

The U.S. contribution to Argo is managed by the National Oceanographic Partnership Program, with funding from ONR and NOAA. Argo international activities are coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission. Argo float technology was developed over the past decade by the World Ocean Circulation Experiment with funding from NSF and ONR.

Argo is one element of a comprehensive international system for observing the global oceans -- Global Eulerian Observatories -- GODAE ( ) -- CLIVAR: ACVE & PBECS -- GOOS/GCOS

Proposed Global Eulerian Observations Courtesy of Uwe Send, IfM, Kiel

Why a Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment ? Opportunities: maturity of satellite and in-situ observing systems make real-time global observations feasible advances in scientific knowledge (e.g. TOGA, WOCE) and our ability to model the global ocean and assimilate data a good time to mount a demonstration of feasibility and practicality Needs: user demand for global ocean products for a variety of applications--including scientific research building a permanent, well-supported ocean observing system requires convincing demonstrations The ocean observing system for climate - St Raphael, October 1999

GODAE Objective: operational Objective: Provide a practical demonstration of real-time, global ocean data assimilation for operational oceanography The ocean observing system for climate - St Raphael, October 1999 To apply state-of-the-art ocean models & assimilation methods for: -- short-range open-ocean forecasts -- boundary conditions for coastal forecasts -- initial conditions for climate forecast models To provide global ocean analyses and re-analyses to improve our: -- understanding of the oceans -- assessments of the predictability of ocean systems -- the design & effectiveness of the global ocean observing system

GODAE Requirements - in-situ The existing global, in-situ observing system is clearly inadequate for GODAE. The development of an appropriate network must take into account the complementarity of satellites and in-situ systems: -- vertical structure from in-situ data -- broad surface coverage from satellites -- different sampling and measurement schemes -- calibration/validation of satellites with in-situ data Argo was designed to meet this need. It will provide the primary global data for GODAE, complementing existing operational and experimental systems. Argo: a GODAE/CLIVAR project The ocean observing system for climate - St Raphael, October 1999

From Mark Trail, September 26, 1999

For further information, contact: Dr. Stan Wilson, Deputy Chief Scientist U.S. National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration ;