Climate Change and Fossil Fuels Will running out of oil help mitigate global warming?

Outline Climate change signals Climate models and projections Peak oil (and natural gas and coal) Will fossil fuel limits have an effect? Conclusion

The Past

Mean global temperature – single number version

Mean global temperature - distribution

Energy Balance “Earth’s Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications” James Hansen, et al. Science 3 June : – Current imbalance of 0.85±0.15 W/m 2

Total anthropogenic carbon emissions

CO 2 concentration

Methane concentrations

Temperature change - natural or anthropogenic?

The Future

Model scenario indicators

Climate “Forcings”

Model projections

Energy and fossil fuels

World energy use Coal Nuclear Oil (34.9%) Gas Hydro Biomass Geothermal, wind, solar, etc. RE (13.4%) Total ~400 Quadrillion Btu World: ~84 million barrels/day; US: ~21 million barrels/day

US oil production

US production peak Approximately 30 out of 40 largest producers have crossed a peak

Peak models – world production USGS (BP + 50%) BP reserves

Discovery vs. consumption

Discovery and production

US Production and Logistic Model = kQ(1 – Q/Q ∞ ) dQ dt

Modified Logistic Q total (Gb) = kQ(1 – Q/Q ∞ ) dQ dt Time-dependent

World Reserves and R/P

Production and R/P Ratio

EIA Predictions The U.S. DOE/EIA's International Energy Outlook 2001 (IEO2001), stated the following concerning future U.K. oil production: "The United Kingdom is expected to produce about 3.1 million barrels/day by the middle of this decade (~2005), followed by a decline to 2.7 MMb/d by 2020.“ 1999: MMbd;2000: 2.667; 2001: 2.476; 2002: 2.463; 2003: MMbd2004: 2.028; 2005: MMbd In the IEO2003, the U.S. DOE/EIA stated the following concerning Norwegian and North Sea oil production: "The decline in North Sea production is slowed as a result of substantial improvement in field recovery rates. Production from Norway, Western Europe's largest producer, is expected to peak at about 3.4 million barrels per day in 2004 and then gradually decline to about 2.5 million barrels per day by the end of the forecast period (2025) with the maturing of some of its larger and older fields.“ 2001: 3.4 MMbd; 2002: 3333; 2003: 3264; 2004: 3188; 2005: 2969

Most Recent Predictions (June 2006) In the IEO2006 reference case, … (p)roduction from Norway … is expected to peak at about 3.6 MMbd in 2006 and then decline gradually to about 2.5 MMbd in The UK sector is expected to produce about 2.2 MMbd in 2010, followed by a decline to 1.4 MMbd in 2030.

Natural Gas National Petroleum Council (1998) US Prod.Import from Canada Bcm 90 Bcm Bcm 120 Bcm Bcm Now the numbers are more like … Bcm Bcm Bcm Bcm And Canada peaked in 2002 at 188 Bcm and expects a decline of 2.5% per year

Natural Gas in the US EIA Statistical Review of World Energy data (per day)

U.S. Coal Production

Energy Information Administration – Annual Energy Review 2005 Lower quality coal

Tar Sands Alberta, Canada Effectively a mining operation Current production of 10 6 bbl/day of synthetic crude oil Estimate ~3 MMb/d in 10 years, 5 MMb/d in 25 years Needs large amounts of NG and water, plus hazardous waste disposal EROEI is perhaps 2:1 – 8:1 The plan now is to expand capacity from the present 155,000 barrels a day to more than 500,000 by This will require many billions of dollars of further investment in mining and upgrading facilities. Malcolm Brinded Executive Director Exploration & Production, Royal Dutch Shell plc

Oil Shale Western U.S. Possibly 800 billion barrels !! A mined product Techniques proven in principle, but not at large scale Only profitable with oil >$75/bbl High growth, optimum scenario – 10 6 bbl/d in 2025 or later. EROEI is estimated at ~2:1 – 4:1 Rand Corp. report for US DOE, Nat’l. Energy Tech. Lab.

Ethanol from Corn Yield for ethanol from corn is ~70 GJ/ha kg corn /ha) Automobile + light truck transportation uses ~1.7×10 10 GJ/a Quick calculation: we would need 2.4×10 8 ha of land Currently we have in the US 1.2×10 8 ha of cropland total But … the key point missing is the energy input. Ethanol from industrial-scale corn farming is barely an energy break-even. Energy return on Energy invested (EROEI) ratio is ~1. GHG emissions are only slightly less than for conventional gasoline. D.Pimentel and T. Patzek, Natural Resources Research 14, (2005) Shapouri - USDA “The Energy Balance of Corn Ethanol: An Update” Ag. Econ. Report 813 Farrell et al., Science 311, (2006)

Fossil fuels and CO 2

SRES - Oil

SRES - NG

Oil and CO 2

Natural Gas and CO 2

Coal and CO 2

Total CO 2 – Middle Scenarios

Model output – CO 2 concentration 2100

Model output - Temperature

Peak fossil fuel scenario

Stop burning fossil fuels? “The Climate Change Commitment” T. M. L. Wigley 18 MARCH 2005 VOL 307 SCIENCE

Keep burning at same rate? “The Climate Change Commitment” T. M. L. Wigley 18 MARCH 2005 VOL 307 SCIENCE

Will climate change mitigation be costly? Some coupled economic-climate models show the costs to be minimal Stern report – not acting now will be extremely costly U.S. businesses that have taken action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions have found positive bottom-line results