HUMAN POPULATION, CARRYING CAPACITY, AND RESOURCE USE 3.1 Population Dynamics

Assessment Statements  Describe the nature and explain the implications of exponential growth in human populations.  Calculate and explain, from given data, the values of crude birth rate, crude death rate, fertility, doubling time, and natural increase rate.  Analyze age/sex pyramids and diagrams showing demographic transition models.  Discuss the use of models in predicting the growth of human populations.

3.1.1 Describe the nature and explain the implications of exponential growth in human populations.  Exponential growth – growth rate which is increasingly rapid or an accelerating rate of growth.  Human population has doubled 3 times in the last 200 years.  Up to 95% of growth occurs in less economically developed countries.

3.1.1 Describe the nature and explain the implications of exponential growth in human populations.  Growth rate is beginning to slow down, mostly due to declines in fertility.  1990 – 3.3 children/woman  2002 – 2.6 children/woman  Growth rate will have big impact on resource use, as more people means more supplies. This may be lessened as LEDCs tend to consume less than MEDCs.

3.1.1 Describe the nature and explain the implications of exponential growth in human populations.  Most of the world however will soon have shrinking populations, which is going to lead to an increase in the number of elderly people. North and Latin America are the only places this is not predicted to happen.

3.1.2 Calculate and explain, from given data, the values of crude birth rate, crude death rate, fertility, doubling time, and natural increase rate.  Crude birth rate – number of live births per 1000 people in a population.  Does not take into account the age and sex structure of the population.  Standardized birth rate – birth rate for a region on the basis that its age composition is the same as the whole country.

3.1.2 Calculate and explain, from given data, the values of crude birth rate, crude death rate, fertility, doubling time, and natural increase rate.  Life expectancy – average number of years that a person can be expected to live, given that demographic factors don’t change.  Crude death rate – number of death per 1000 people in a population.  Poor indicator with very old and young populations.  Instead use age-specific mortality rates such as infant mortality rate which is the total number of deaths of children aged under 1 year per 1000 live births.

3.1.2 Calculate and explain, from given data, the values of crude birth rate, crude death rate, fertility, doubling time, and natural increase rate.  Total fertility rate – average number of birth per woman of child- bearing age.  General fertility rate – number of birth per 1000 women aged years.  Age-specific birth rate – number of births per 1000 women of any specified year groups.

3.1.2 Calculate and explain, from given data, the values of crude birth rate, crude death rate, fertility, doubling time, and natural increase rate.  Doubling time – length of time it takes for a population to double in size, assuming its natural growth rate remains constant.  Natural Increase Rate – CBR - CDR

3.1.3 Analyze age/sex pyramids and diagrams showing demographic transition models.  Population pyramids can tell us a lot of information. For instance:  A wide base indicates a high birth rate.  Narrowing base suggests falling birth rate.  Straight or near vertical sides reveal a low death rate.  Concave slopes characterize high death rates.

3.1.4 Discuss the use of models in predicting the growth of human populations.  Varies between national and global population models as national takes immigration and emigration into account, but global does not.  Many factors to take into account for birth and death rates. Makes it very difficult to make projections.

3.1.4 Discuss the use of models in predicting the growth of human populations.  For birth rate:  Population age-structure  Status of women  Type of economy  Wealth  Religion  Social pressure  Educational status  Availability of contraceptives  Desire for children  Need for government policies  Provision of child-care measures  Provision of Pensions

3.1.4 Discuss the use of models in predicting the growth of human populations.  For death rate:  Population age-structure  Availability of clean water  Sanitation  Adequate housing  Reliable food supply  Prevalence of disease  Provision of healthcare facilities  Types of occupations  Natural Hazards  Civil conflict and war  Chance factors