A lesson on basic demographic statistics: Total Fertility Rate (TFR) Life expectancy...at birth (e 0 )...at age x (e x )

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Presentation transcript:

A lesson on basic demographic statistics: Total Fertility Rate (TFR) Life expectancy...at birth (e 0 )...at age x (e x )

Terms (see Haupt, pp. 2-3) “Demography is a science of rates.” » Count: absolute number, specific area, time » Rate: relative frequency of an event, for a place and time » crude: total population » specific: subgroup (by age, sex, race, occup.) » Ratio: relation of one subgroup to another » Proportion: relation of subgroup to entire population

» Cohort measure, events of a cohort: birth, marriage, schooling,... age time Terms (Haupt, 3): cohort vs. period measures

» Period measure, events occurring to a population during a specific moment of time. age time

3 types of measures: crude, specific, synthetic » Crude: event/total population crude birth, death, marriage,... » Age-specific rate: event/population age x to n at risk of event: giving birth, dying, migrating » Summary: summation of age-specific rates for a period in time (year, 5 year). Examples: Total fertility rate Life expectancy Cohort or period (synthetic cohort)

Fertility measures: from crude, specific, to synthetic » Crude birth rate: births/total population » Age-specific fertility rate (asfr): births/females 15-19, b/f b/f45-49 » Summary: total fertility rate (total births/woman over life span):  (asfr ) » Summary: gross reproduction rate (total daughters/woman): TFR*0.475 (from sex- ratio at birth)

Age-specific fertility rates

Age specific fertility rates: USA, 1988 and 1970 vs. Mexico

Mexico’s fertility in 1971 lagged USA by a century

By 1992, Mexico lagged USA by decades.

Total fertility rates

Fertility decline in Latin America,

Politics, fertility and transition in Mexico, Revolution Family planning

Mexico’s fertility transition: 7 children in 1970 to 3.2 in 1992

The fertility transition in 15 countries: