Economics of International Financial Policy: ITF 220 Staff -- Professor: Jeffrey Frankel, Littauer 217 Office hours: Mondays 4:15-5:15; Tuesdays 2:00-3:00. Faculty Asst.: Minoo Ghoreishi, Belfer 505 (617) Times – Lectures: Mon. & Wed., 2:40-4:00 p.m., L ittauer 382 Review sessions: Fridays, 11:40-1:00, Littauer 332 Final exam: Monday, May 11, 2014, 2:00-5:00 p.m. Requirements -- Textbook: World Trade & Payments + Readings. 7 Problem Sets (20%) + Midterm (30%) + Final exam (50%).

Professor Jeffrey Frankel, Kennedy School, Harvard University Big topics covered in the course I) ELASTICITIES & THE TRADE BALANCE II) THE KEYNESIAN MODEL OF INCOME III) THE MONETARY APPROACH TO THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS IV) GLOBALIZATION OF FINANCIAL MARKETS V) FISCAL & MONETARY POLICY UNDER INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MOBILITY VI) INTERDEPENDENCE AND COORDINATION VII) SUPPLY, INFLATION & MONETARY UNION VIII) EXPECTATIONS, MONEY, & DETERMINATION OF THE EXCHANGE RATE

Lecture 1: Balance of Payments Accounting Lecture 2: Supply & demand for foreign exchange; export and import elasticities Lecture 3: Empirical effects of devaluation on the trade balance TOPIC I: ELASTICITIES & THE TRADE BALANCE

Professor Jeffrey Frankel, Kennedy School, Harvard University Lecture 1: Balance of payments accounting Definition: The balance of payments is the year’s record of economic transactions between domestic and foreign residents. The rules: –If you have to pay a foreign resident, normally in exchange for something that you bring into the country, then the something counts as a debit. –If a foreign resident has to pay you for something, then the something counts as a credit.

NOW CALLED “FINANCIAL ACCOUNT” “Primary income,” mainly investment income ≡ “secondary income”

Goods Goods & Services Current Account Measures of external balance US US services surplus partially offsets the deficit in goods. PER QUARTER

Professor Jeffrey Frankel, Kennedy School, Harvard University Examples on the current account: You, an American, import software CD-roms from India => debits appear on US merchandise account. You import services (electronically) of an Indian software firm => debit appears on US services account. (This is the famous and controversial “overseas outsourcing.”) You buy the services, instead, from a subsidiary that the Indian software firm set up last year in the US. This is not an international transaction, and so does not appear in the accounts. But assume the subsidiary sends some profits back to India => debit appears on US investment income account. (It is as if the US is paying for the services of Indian capital.) Employees of the subsidiary in the US (or any other US resident entities) send money to relatives back in India => debit appears under unilateral transfers.

Professor Jeffrey Frankel, Kennedy School, Harvard University Examples on the long-term capital account:  Instead of buying software CD-roms from India, you buy the company in India that makes them. => debit appears on US capital account, under FDI. (You have imported ownership of the company.)  Instead of buying the entire company in India, you buy some stock in it => debit appears on US capital account, under equities. (You have imported claims against an Indian resident.)  Instead of buying stock in the company, you lend it money for 2 years => debit appears on US capital account, under bonds or bank loans. (Again, you have imported a claim against an Indian resident.)

Professor Jeffrey Frankel, Kennedy School, Harvard University Examples on the short-term capital account:  You lend to the Indian company in the form of 30-day commercial paper or trade credit => debit appears on US short-term capital account. (Again, you have acquired a claim against India.)  You lend to the Indian company in the form of cash dollars, which they don’t have to pay back for 30 days => debit appears on US short-term capital account.  You are the Central Bank, and you buy securities of the Indian company (an improbable example for the Fed – but some central banks, acting like “Sovereign Wealth Funds,” now make international investments of this sort) => debit appears as a US official reserves transaction.

The rules, continued Each transaction is recorded twice: once as a credit and once as a debit. –E.g., when an importer pays cash dollars, the debit on the merchandise account is offset by a credit under short-term capital: the exporter in the other country has, at least for now, increased holdings of US assets, which counts as a credit just like any other portfolio investment in US assets. At the end of each quarter, credits & debits are added up within each line-item; and line-items are cumulated from the top to compute measures of external balance. Professor Jeffrey Frankel, Kennedy School, Harvard University

Some balance of payments identities CA ≡ Rate of increase in net international investment position. –CA-surplus country (Japan) accumulates claims against foreigners; –CA-deficit country (US) borrows from foreigners. CA + KA + ORT ≡ 0. BoP ≡ CA + KA. => BoP ≡ -ORT ≡ excess supply of FX coming from private sector, (i.e., all credits from exports of goods, services, assets … minus all debits) which central banks absorb into reserves, if they intervene in FX market). –A BoP surplus country adds to its FX reserves –A BoP deficit country either runs down its FX reserves or, is lucky enough for foreign central banks to finance the deficit, if its currency is an international reserve asset (US $). –A floating country does not intervene in the FX market => BP ≡ 0; Exchange rate E adjusts to clear FX supply & demand in private market

Professor Jeffrey Frankel, Kennedy School, Harvard University End of Lecture 1: Balance of Payments Accounting

Professor Jeffrey Frankel, Kennedy School, Harvard University Lecture 2: The Elasticities Approach to the Trade Balance Primary question: Under what circumstances does devaluation improve the trade balance (TB), and how much? Secondary question: If the currency floats (i.e., the central bank does not intervene in the forex market), how much must the exchange rate (E) move to clear the trade balance by itself ? Model: Elasticities Approach Key equation: Marshall-Lerner Condition

Supply & demand for foreign exchange D S Professor Jeffrey Frankel, Kennedy School, Harvard University E ≡ price of foreign exchange in $/₤ Quantity of foreign exchange, ₤ FX supply arises from exports, capital inflows… FX demand arises from imports, capital outflows…

Professor Jeffrey Frankel, Kennedy School, Harvard University Depreciation (increase in price of foreign currency) Deficit (excess demand for foreign currency ) Assume demand for forex shifts out e.g., to due to increase in demand to buy foreign goods or assets

Professor Jeffrey Frankel, Kennedy School, Harvard University The Elasticities Approach to the Trade Balance derives the supply of foreign exchange from export earnings, and derives the demand for foreign exchange from import spending. Capital flows are not considered (until later), so no supply of, or demand for, FX comes from international borrowing or lending.

How the Exchange Rate, E, Influences BoP ASSUMPTIONS :  Supply of FX determined by EXPORT earnings  Demand for FX determined by IMPORT spending 1)No capital flows or transfers => BoP = TB 2) PCP: Price in terms of producer’s currency; Supply elasticity = ∞. 3) Complete exchange rate passthrough: 4) Demand is a decreasing function of price in consumer’s currency => Net supply of FX = TB expressed in foreign currency ≡ TB*

How the TB is affected by the exchange rate (continued) EXPERIMENT : E↑  THREE EFFECTS (1) IM D ( ) falls. TRADE BALANCE EXPRESSED IN FOREIGN CURRENCY EFFECT ON TB* (2) X D ( ) rises. (3) Price of X in terms of foreign currency falls. NET EFFECT ON TB* is determined by Marshall-Lerner condition. Add one more assumption: Before the devaluation, TB*=0, so export earnings cancel out import spending, Then devaluation improves the TB iff: ε X + ε M > 1.

Example (i) to illustrate Marshall-Lerner condition If ε x =1, then E ↑ leaves export revenue unchanged. Because effects (2) and (3) cancel out. In that case, so long as ε M > 0, Marshall-Lerner condition is satisfied: Import spending falls -- effect (1) -- TB* improves. Professor Jeffrey Frankel, Kennedy School, Harvard University

Example (ii ) to illustrate Marshall-Lerner condition If ε x = 0, then E ↑ cuts export revenue in proportion because of valuation effect (3). In that case, is ε M > 1 necessary to improve TB* ? Yes, because of Marshall-Lerner condition -- fall in import spending then outweighs fall in export revenue: effect (1) > effect (2) -- provided initial X revenue > import spending. But if initial TB*<0, elasticities need not be as high.

How the TB is affected by the exchange rate (continued) EXPERIMENT : E↑  THREE EFFECTS (2) IM D ( ) falls. TRADE BALANCE EXPRESSED IN DOMESTIC CURRENCY EFFECT ON TB (1) X D ( ) rises. (3) Price of IMports in terms of domestic currency rises. NET EFFECT ON TB is determined by the same Marshall-Lerner condition. Again, assume that initially TB=0. Then devaluation improves the TB iff: ε X + ε M > 1.

Professor Jeffrey Frankel, Kennedy School, Harvard University Two examples when it worked: Italy after 1992; Poland after To be continued in Lecture 3 … What is the effect on TB in practice of increases in the exchange rate?

Professor Jeffrey Frankel, Kennedy School, Harvard University 1992 devaluation Rise in trade balance Effect of Italy’s 1992 devaluation (in the European ERM crisis), as measured by the lira’s R eal E ffective E xchange R ate value, on its Trade Balance.

Poland’s exchange rate rose 35% in the global crisis. Zloty / € Source: Cezary Wójcik Depreciation boosted net exports => Poland avoided recession Exchange rate

Poland’s trade balance improved sharply in 2009 while its European trading partners all went into recession. Source: National Bank of Poland From FocusEconomics 2014 Trade balance in billions of euros Contribution of Net X in 2009: 3.1% of GDP > Total GDP growth: 1.7%

Professor Jeffrey Frankel, Kennedy School, Harvard University End of Lecture 2: Elasticities Approach to the Trade Balance

Lecture 3: Empirical effects of the exchange rate on the trade balance Elasticity Pessimism: Countries often fear their elasticities are too low for the M-L condition. Econometric estimation of elasticities What is OLS regression? Typical estimates Lags. The J-curve With fast pass-through to import prices With slow pass-through to import prices. Application to the US TB: The 1980s; Effects of $ appreciation in

Professor Jeffrey Frankel, Kennedy School, Harvard University How can we estimate sensitivity of export demand to exchange rate? OLS regression X ≡ Exports demanded EP*/P ≡ Price of foreign goods relative to domestic goods

Common econometric finding Estimated trade elasticities with respect to relative prices often ≈ 1, after a few years have been allowed to pass. –=> Marshall-Lerner condition holds in the medium run. Some face a higher elasticity of demand for their exports: –small countries, and –producers of agricultural & mineral commodities or other commodities that are close substitutes for competitors’ exports.

Common empirical observation: After a devaluation, trade balance gets worse before it gets better. Explanation: Even if devaluation is instantly passed through to higher import prices, buyers react with a lag. Also, in practice, it often takes time before the devaluation is passed through to import prices.

Professor Jeffrey Frankel, Kennedy School, Harvard University End of Lecture 3: Empirical Effects of Devaluation on the Trade Balance

Professor Jeffrey Frankel, Kennedy School, Harvard University 1980 trade deficits (Reagan period) What effect might the $ appreciation of 2014 have in 2015? Application: Determination of US TB

US trade & current account balances over 40 years The US trade balance was on a downward trend, (with NS) But improved during recessions: , 2001, & especially PER QUARTER

Professor Jeffrey Frankel, Kennedy School, Harvard University Effects on US trade balance of: $ appreciation of (“Reaganomics”) $ depreciation of (Plaza Accord). $ appreciation of

US TB & CA, , $ millions The deficits shrank sharply in , due to: lagged effects of $ depreciation and the reces sion. Professor Jeffrey Frankel, Kennedy School, Harvard University

The dollar rose about 10% in the 2 nd half of Jan. 9, 2015 Dawsey/Cahill. US Economics Analyst 15/02 –“Dollars and Percent: How Big a Growth Drag from Stronger USD?” What effect might the $ appreciation of 2014 have in 2015?

A 10% $ appreciation is estimated to reduce US exports about 10% after 6 months. Jan. 9, 2015 Dawsey/Cahill. US Economics Analyst 15/02 –“Dollars and Percent: How Big a Growth Drag from Stronger USD?”

The appreciation is estimated to reduce GDP growth about 0.6% after 1 year including also some fall in imports & the multiplier effect on domestic demand. Jan.9, 2015 Dawsey/Cahill. US Economics Analyst 15/02 –“Dollars and Percent: How Big a Growth Drag from Stronger USD?”