Dynamical downscaling of future climates Steve Hostetler, USGS Jay Alder, OSU/USGS Andrea Schuetz, USGS/OSU Environmental Computing Center, COAS/OSU.

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Presentation transcript:

Dynamical downscaling of future climates Steve Hostetler, USGS Jay Alder, OSU/USGS Andrea Schuetz, USGS/OSU Environmental Computing Center, COAS/OSU

The Goal of Downscaling T31 (~3.75 o ) A/OGCM 15 km

Ronald J Stouffer Karl Taylor, Jerry Meehl and many others Global Simulations CMIP & IPCC AR5

Annual Average Temperature OBS Alder et al., in prep

Annual Average Precipitation OBS Alder et al., in prep

Annual TS2 Bias Alder et al., in prep

Annual Precipitation Bias Alder et al., in prep

Sensitivity to Doubled CO2 Alder et al., in prep

DJF El Niño TS2 Composites OBS Alder et al., in prep

DJF La Niña Precipitation Composites OBS

(Figure: Patrick J. Bartlein, Univ. of Oregon) IPCC AR4 GCM Climate Simulations 4.8 o C 6.2 o C

Dynamic: Regional model + true simulation of high resolution forcing and climate + large, internally consistent set of atmosphere/surface variables -very time consuming, compute intensive -limited number of driving GCMs (we’re using 3 or 4) -added model bias (e.g., convective parameterizations) Both: Statistical significance? Statistical: Interpolate EXP-CTL  s + fast (relatively) + high resolution (e.g., 4 km) + multiple GCMs for ensembles (e.g., 21) - limited ability to correct for displaced features -mass, heat conservation? Leading downscaling techniques

T31 50 km 15 km Topography

500 mb ht and wind AOGCM – RCM Nesting

Surface Fields

July 2-m Temperature T31 50 km 15 km

15 km Domains 64,256 grid points, 23 levels 2.5 months/day 5 Tb/10 yrs

GFDL January TA 2X CO22X-1X

GFDL January PRATE 2X CO22X-1X

GFDL July TA 2X CO22X-1X

GFDL July PRATE 2X CO22X-1X

t-test f-test TA Total precipitation SWEConvective precipitation ET Root zone moisture t-test f-test t-test f-test t-test f-test t-test f-test t-test f-test Significance of Regional 2X-1X Changes green: mean +red: mean -

GFDL July Convection and Soil Moisture 1X > 2 mm Soil moisture 2X-1X 1X < 2 mm 2X > 2 mm2X < 2 mm

2x-1x CO 2 January PBL HeightMax 10 m wind

2x-1x CO 2 July PBL HeightMax 10 m wind

Stream temperatureBasin water balanceSnow --model/satellite Glacier mass balance/flow Vegetation dynamics Wildfire Lake temperature Process Model Applications