Putting It All Together: The Intelligence Cycle Chapter 7 ©2013, Taylor & Francis

Introduction What decision-makers require is intelligence rather than raw information Decision-makers are expected to make the best decisions possible using the best information and processed intelligence available ©2013, Taylor & Francis

Information and the Origin of the Intelligence Cycle Provides a visual representation of how the IC answers the questions of a decision-maker Many components must work together with great synchronicity for the overall process to be successful By 1948, the general steps of the cycle had been identified and the term coined ©2013, Taylor & Francis

The Intelligence Cycle The cycle is a model—its purpose is not to perfectly represent reality but to provide a pedagogical tool that students can use to increase understanding Things rarely unfold in the nice, neat, manner suggested by the cycle Conceptually, the intelligence cycle never ends ©2013, Taylor & Francis

Step One: Planning and Direction Encompasses the management of the entire effort Here the question to be examined is formulated – Swarm ball Once a question has been formulated, a plan is devised to collect the appropriate information to properly answer the question Once collection techniques have been identified, they are prioritized; anticipated information sources are identified and various agencies are tasked with collection objectives ©2013, Taylor & Francis

Step Two: Collection The gathering of raw data and delivery of information for appropriate processing or production Without raw information flowing into the cycle, intelligence cannot be developed As information begins to flow in, analysts may decide there are certain “gaps” in coverage – Request for information (RFI) It is essential that analysts and collectors share a common understanding of each other’s roles ©2013, Taylor & Francis

Step 3: Processing Raw information is usually not in a form that allows for immediate analysis; first, it must be organized and, in some cases, translated or decrypted The more technology advances, the more processing needs to occur ©2013, Taylor & Francis

Step Four: Analysis Analysts collect, evaluate, and produce an assessment within an assigned field or substantive area and then forecast future trends or outcomes from incoming information Five categories of finished intelligence – Current intelligence Addresses current events, and seeks to alert consumers to new developments ©2013, Taylor & Francis

Step Four: Analysis Five categories of finished intelligence cont’d – Estimative intelligence Looks forward to potential developments that could affect national security – Warning intelligence Implies urgency and the potential need for policy action in response – Research intelligence In-depth studies that support both current and estimative intelligence – Scientific and technical intelligence Information on technical developments and characteristics, performance, and capabilities of foreign technologies, including weapons systems or subsystems ©2013, Taylor & Francis

Step Five: Dissemination Intelligence is delivered to decision-makers for them to use in whatever way they deem appropriate This final step can “make or break” the entire process ©2013, Taylor & Francis

Critical Reactions to the Intelligence Cycle It has been said that policy officials often seem to want intelligence to support policy rather than to inform it The intelligence cycle is "overly simple” The cycle is slow and clumsy, due to its imagined linearity ©2013, Taylor & Francis

Conclusion Information may be collected and converted into intelligence, and the intelligence may be disseminated, but unless that intelligence is exploited through decision and action, it has served no purpose. ©2013, Taylor & Francis