Tamas Kovacs Hungarian Meteorological Service Climatology Division Seasonal forecast and an outlook for Winter 2013/14 in Hungary Tamas Kovacs - 10th Session.

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Presentation transcript:

Tamas Kovacs Hungarian Meteorological Service Climatology Division Seasonal forecast and an outlook for Winter 2013/14 in Hungary Tamas Kovacs - 10th Session of the South-East European Climate Outlook Forum, Belgrade, Serbia, November

SEECOF-9 Consensus Outlook for Summer 2013 Low oceanic forcingno clear teleconnection patterns limited predictability Likelihood of above-normal temperature for the SEECOF region. Hungary lesser probability for exceeding average summer season temperature

Tamas Kovacs - 10th Session of the South-East European Climate Outlook Forum, Belgrade, Serbia, November SEECOF-9 Consensus Outlook for Summer 2013 Low oceanic forcingno clear teleconnection patterns limited predictability Likelihood of above-normal temperature for the SEECOF region. Larger uncertainties in case of precip. Hungary lesser probability for exceeding average summer season temperature likely near- or below-average precipitation

Tamas Kovacs - 10th Session of the South-East European Climate Outlook Forum, Belgrade, Serbia, November Summer 2013 in Hungary The 10th hottest Summer since 1901 (+1.5°C) Summer mean temperature 20.7 – 21.7 °C (Szeged: 23.3°C)

Tamas Kovacs - 10th Session of the South-East European Climate Outlook Forum, Belgrade, Serbia, November Summer 2013 in Hungary The 10th hottest Summer since 1901 (+1.5°C) Summer mean temperature 20.7 – 21.7°C (Szeged: 23.3°C) Summer temperature anomaly °C

Tamas Kovacs - 10th Session of the South-East European Climate Outlook Forum, Belgrade, Serbia, November Summer 2013 in Hungary The 10th hottest Summer since 1901 (+1.5°C) All summer months above average summer days:67 (56) hot days: 32 (18) heat days:8 (1)

Tamas Kovacs - 10th Session of the South-East European Climate Outlook Forum, Belgrade, Serbia, November Summer 2013 in Hungary The 10th hottest Summer since 1901 (+1.5°C) All summer months above average summer days:67 (56) hot days: 32 (18) heat days:8 (1) Since 1901: 36th warmest June 16th warmest July 7th warmest August 10th warmest Summer in 2013

Tamas Kovacs - 10th Session of the South-East European Climate Outlook Forum, Belgrade, Serbia, November Summer 2013 in Hungary The 6th driest Summer since 1901 (60%) Summer precipitation 80 – 120 mm some regions up to south and northeast below 80!

Tamas Kovacs - 10th Session of the South-East European Climate Outlook Forum, Belgrade, Serbia, November Summer 2013 in Hungary The 6th driest Summer since 1901 (60%) Summer precipitation 80 – 120 mm some regions up to south and northeast below 80! Summer precipitation anomaly 40 – 80%

Tamas Kovacs - 10th Session of the South-East European Climate Outlook Forum, Belgrade, Serbia, November Summer 2013 in Hungary The 6th driest Summer since 1901 (60%) All summer months below average wet days: 20 (28)

Tamas Kovacs - 10th Session of the South-East European Climate Outlook Forum, Belgrade, Serbia, November Summer 2013 in Hungary The 6th driest Summer since 1901 (60%) All summer months below average wet days: 20 (28) Since 1901: 39th direst June 3rd driest July 29th driest August 6th driest Summer in 2013

Tamas Kovacs - 10th Session of the South-East European Climate Outlook Forum, Belgrade, Serbia, November Seasonal forecast Applying ECMWF System 4 long range forecast Producing forecasts as country averages in every month for mean temperature (6 regions in addition) max. temperature min. temperature precipitation amount (6 regions in addition) in 5-day periods for the following 3 months. Plus an outlook for the 4-6 months as well only mean temp. and precip. country averages Using calibrated grid data for Hungary Verification results show that conversion to System 4 brought advance comparing to previous years.

Tamas Kovacs - 10th Session of the South-East European Climate Outlook Forum, Belgrade, Serbia, November Seasonal forecast

Tamas Kovacs - 10th Session of the South-East European Climate Outlook Forum, Belgrade, Serbia, November Seasonal forecast

Tamas Kovacs - 10th Session of the South-East European Climate Outlook Forum, Belgrade, Serbia, November Seasonal forecast

Tamas Kovacs - 10th Session of the South-East European Climate Outlook Forum, Belgrade, Serbia, November Monthly forecast December 2013: slightly warmer, slightly drier December 2013 Area Mean temperaturePrecipitation amount mean climat forecast mean climat forecast fromtofromto Hungary Budapest area Northern mountains Northern Great Plain Southern Great Plain Southern Transdanubia Northern Transdanubia

Tamas Kovacs - 10th Session of the South-East European Climate Outlook Forum, Belgrade, Serbia, November Monthly forecast January 2014: slightly warmer, drier January 2014 Area Mean temperaturePrecipitation amount mean climat forecast mean climat forecast fromtofromto Hungary Budapest area Northern mountains Northern Great Plain Southern Great Plain Southern Transdanubia Northern Transdanubia

Tamas Kovacs - 10th Session of the South-East European Climate Outlook Forum, Belgrade, Serbia, November Monthly forecast February 2014: slightly warmer, drier February 2014 Area Mean temperaturePrecipitation amount mean climat forecast mean climat forecast fromtofromto Hungary Budapest area Northern mountains Northern Great Plain Southern Great Plain Southern Transdanubia Northern Transdanubia

Tamas Kovacs - 10th Session of the South-East European Climate Outlook Forum, Belgrade, Serbia, November Forecast for Winter Winter 2013/2014: slightly warmer, drier Winter 2013/2014 outlook for Hungary Mean temperaturePrecipitation amount climat fromto climat fromto December January February

Thank you for your attention! Tamas Kovacs - 10th Session of the South-East European Climate Outlook Forum, Belgrade, Serbia, November Tamas Kovacs Hungarian Meteorological Service Climatology Division