Norges Bank 11 Executive Board meeting 28 May 2008

Norges Bank 22 Source: Norges Bank Strategy interval 1/05 3/04 2/05 3/05 1/06 2/06 3/06 2/07 1/07 3/07 MPR 1/08 1/08 Key policy rate

Norges Bank 3 Key policy rate in the baseline scenario and estimated forward rates Per cent Market 26 May 2008 Market after publication of MPR 1/08 (13 March) Baseline scenario MPR 1/08 Source: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

Norges Bank 4 Source: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank I-44 (left-hand scale) Weighted interest rate differential (right-hand scale) 26 May ) A rising curve denotes an appreciation of the krone 3-month interest rate differential and import-weighted exchange rate (I-44) 1) January 2002 – December May 2008 MPR 1/08

Norges Bank 5 Key policy rates and forward rates Per cent Norway US Euro-area 26 May 2008 Market after publication of MPR 1/08 (13 March) Sweden UK Source: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

Norges Bank 6 Difference between three-month money market rates and expected key policy rates 1) Historical and ahead. Percentage points. At 26 May 2008 US Euro-area UK Norway 2) 1) The expected key rate is measured by the Overnight Indexed Swap (OIS). 2) Norges Bank’s estimates Source: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

Norges Bank 7 CDS prices for US and European companies and selected banks. Basis points. 1 January May 2008 Europe 1 US 1 Citigroup UBS Goldman Sachs Merrill Lynch Source: Bloomberg 1) CDS prices for investment grade companies

Norges Bank 8 CDS prices for Iceland and Icelandic banks Basis points. Daily figures. 1 January May 2008 Kaupthing Glitnir Landsbanki Source: Thomson Reuters and Bloomberg Iceland (Govern.)

Norges Bank 9 Source: Thomson Reuters Euro area BBB US BBB Emerging economies Yield differential between corporate and government bonds (US and Euro-area) and between emerging economies and the US (government bonds) 10-year maturity. Percentage points

Norges Bank 10 1) Up to and including 07 Q1 mortgage figures cover all household mortgages. Thereafter, they only include prime mortgages. Mortgages 1), US Large and medium-sized enterprises, US Enterprises, euro area Mortgages, euro area Survey of bank lending practices. US and the euro area. Share of banks that will tighten their credit standards for different customer groups. Per cent. Quarterly figures. 03 Q1 – 08 Q2 Source: Thomson Reuters

Norges Bank 11 Enterprises. Net figures. Per cent Norges Bank’s lending survey Banks are tightening lending practices Sources: Bank of England and Norges Bank UKNorwayUKNorway Commercial properties. Net figures. Per cent 1) Net figures are weighted survey answers. Blue columns represent the current quarter, red dots represent the expected situation next quarter. Red dots are moved one quarter ahead.

Norges Bank 12 Equities Indices. 1 January 2007 = 100 US, S&P 500 Emerging markets, MSCI Norway, OSEBX Europe Stoxx Japan, Topix Source: Thomson Reuters

Norges Bank 13 Commodity prices, food In USD. Indices. 3 January 2006 = January 2006 – 23 May 2008 Source: Thomson Reuters WheatCorn Coffee Soy beans 1) US figures only up to 23 May due to closed stock markets in the US.

Norges Bank 14 Rise in consumer prices abroad 12-month change. Per cent. January 2002 – April 2008 UK Euro area US Japan Russia Brasil India China Sweden

Norges Bank 15 Mortgage rate Money market rate Key policy rate, money market rate 1) and banks’ lending rate on new loans 2) In per cent. 3 May 2007 – 23 May 2008 Sources: Norsk familieøkonomi AS and Norges Bank 1) 3-month NIBOR 2) Interest rates on new mortgage loans of NOK 1 million within 60% of purchase price with floating interest rate. Figures for the 20 largest banks, weighted according to market share. Key rate

Norges Bank 16 1) Norges Bank’s computations based on world market prices 26 May Mar 08 (MPR 1/08) 23 Apr 08 Oil price (Brent Blend) in USD per barrel Futures prices (broken lines) Price indices 1) for Norwegian exports in NOK 2001=100. Q – Q Sources: Reuters (EcoWin), Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Norges Bank 17 Freight rates. Indices based on rates in USD. Tank: World Scale West from the Middle East. Dry bulk: Baltic Dry 4 January 2000 – 26 May 2008 Source: Thomson Reuters Tank, right-hand scale Dry bulk, left- hand scale

Norges Bank 18 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Mainland GDP Quarterly growth. Seasonally adjusted. Per cent

Norges Bank 19 Source: Statistics Norway Housing and non-residential building starts. Average of last three-month-period relative to previous three-month period. Seasonally adjusted. Per cent

Norges Bank 20 Unemployed Percentage of labour force. Seasonally adjusted. February April 2008 Sources: Statistics Norway, Norwegian Labour and Welfare Organisation (NAV) LFS unemployment Registered unemployed Registered unemployed and on labour market programmes

Norges Bank 21 Employment (LFS) 1000 persons. Seasonally adjusted. December 2006 – august 2008 Source: Statistics Norway

Norges Bank 22 Underlying spending growth in the government budget and nominal growth in mainland GDP Per cent – 2008 Sources: Ministry of Finance and Statistics Norway Underlying spending growth Growth in mainland GDP

Norges Bank 23 Real exchange rate Deviation from mean 1) Per cent 1) Data for 2008 based on observations to 26 May Mean January-May 2008 Relative consumer prices Relative wage costs Sources: Statistics Norway, Technical Reporting Committee on Income Settlements, Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank Average ”oil age”

Norges Bank 24 Inflation indicators.12-month change. Per cent. January 2002 – April 2008 Source: Statistics Norway Weighted median CPI-ATE 20 per cent trimmed mean CPI

Norges Bank 25 CPI, CPI-ATE and CPI-ATE plus ”energy trend” 1) 12-month change. Per cent. Monthly figures. January 2002 – April 2008 CPI-ATE CPI-ATE + ”energy trend” Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 1) HP- filtered (lamda=14400) energy price trend based on projected energy prices in MPR 1/08 CPI

Norges Bank 26 Jan 97/07Jul 97/07Jan 98/08Jul 98/08 Prices for domestically produced goods and services 1) Development since January 1997 and January month change. Per cent ) Adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank